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Old May 10th, 2018, 08:01 PM   #1

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Demographic and Electoral Comparisons of US Elections


So this is a thread where I will compare electoral maps of different time periods to compare voting demographic changes. I will use a MODERN electoral vote number map, but assign each state to the winner with the highest PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULAR VOTE of their election.


The reason I do this is to show how parties have changed and of course what demographics they cater to. Here's an example:


The biggest electoral landslides were FDR in 1936 and Reagan in 1984
Comparing the popular votes, here would be the modern electoral map:

Click the image to open in full size.

Now, aside from the fact that DC, Hawaii, and Alaska by default go to Reagan due to not existing or not giving off electoral votes under FDR, the biggest difference is of course the South.


While Reagan's southern strategy was beginning to shift the South to the GOP, under FDR it was extremely solid, while Reagan in 1980 did better in many places up North than FDR did, showing that this transition was still, well, transitioning. Although it should be noted that Jim Crow had an effect on the Democrat's domination in the South, but likely would not have flipped the states as we're talking about percentages as high as the 90s in the deeper parts of the South.


The midwest, especially the Plains states, seem to have been always Republican historically save a few landslide elections for the Democrats, which is an interesting note. Perhaps because farmers are more conservative, but FDR greatly helped farmers, accounting for his landslide, but having it not be a domination like the South.


Anywho, I find these comparisons interesting and plan to make more. If any of you want to see one or want to do one yourself, lemme know and post one!
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Old May 11th, 2018, 01:07 AM   #2

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@Tiger

Dear Sir,
Is this map a combination of the popular vote of the '36 and '84 elections for all states?

Rather than adding the voting totals, the percentages were added?

I imagined it had to be the combination due to New England's result.

First I wanted to comprehend what the map represents, thank you.
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Old May 11th, 2018, 11:16 AM   #3

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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmperorTigerstar View Post

While Reagan's southern strategy was beginning to shift the South to the GOP,
The Southern strategy began much earlier, under Nixon.

The heart of the south (MS, AL, GA, SC) haven't gone for the Dems since Kennedy/Johnson, except in 1976 did they win the South (Carter) and GA alone has also twice gone to the Dems (1980, 1992)
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Old May 11th, 2018, 01:42 PM   #4

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Fairfax View Post
The Southern strategy began much earlier, under Nixon.

The heart of the south (MS, AL, GA, SC) haven't gone for the Dems since Kennedy/Johnson, except in 1976 did they win the South (Carter) and GA alone has also twice gone to the Dems (1980, 1992)
You’re right. I meant to say Nixon’s strategy, but it was still transitioning through Reagan.
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Old May 11th, 2018, 02:36 PM   #5
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Presidential elections occur every four years and pull many occasional voters to vote for charismatic candidates who often rise above party. Much better to use congressional elections, 435 of them every two years for over 100 years.
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Old May 15th, 2018, 07:18 PM   #6

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kotromanic View Post
@Tiger

Dear Sir,
Is this map a combination of the popular vote of the '36 and '84 elections for all states?

Rather than adding the voting totals, the percentages were added?

I imagined it had to be the combination due to New England's result.

First I wanted to comprehend what the map represents, thank you.

No. It just indicates who had a higher percentage of the popular vote between the two. The separate figures aren't being added together.
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Old May 15th, 2018, 07:47 PM   #7

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Click the image to open in full size.
Here's another one, but comparing the landslides of LBJ in 1964 and Nixon in 1972. This one is much closer, and a lot similar to today's maps. LBJ manages to squeak by.
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Old May 16th, 2018, 04:20 AM   #8
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Farmers had voted Democrat since at least Bryan's campaign in 1896. I'm not sure when they switched to voting Republican - probably post-Nixon. I don't think it was so much Liberal vs Conservative so much as economic policy. Republicans in the late 19th / early 20th century had very urban-friendly economic policies. They were especially cozy with the big banks. Farmers have large mortgages and generally dislike banks. It was the Democrats who created the Federal Reserve System in 1913 and eventually took the US off of the gold standard in 1933. These were policies designed to weaken the banks and give the federal government more control over the economy. It's only in the last few decades that rural voters went Republican, possibly for conservative social issues.
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Old May 16th, 2018, 05:48 AM   #9

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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmperorTigerstar View Post
No. It just indicates who had a higher percentage of the popular vote between the two. The separate figures aren't being added together.
"higher percentage of the popular vote between the two" ...

That didn't help me much.

Before you use the negative "no" maybe you could consider whether combining would lead to the same result?

I think I follow what you did, but you merely don't in your own concept consider it a combination.
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Old May 16th, 2018, 08:46 AM   #10
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Wikipedia has articles devoted to each congressional election, and each article has a map indicating which party took the majority of seats in each state. The maps reflect literally thousands of elections, which give a deeper view of parties allegiances than the vagaries of presidential candidates thrown up every four years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States
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