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Old November 20th, 2012, 02:18 PM   #21

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Originally Posted by sylla1 View Post
No answers for my previous question ?
Just for the sake of clarity, why exactly would the embargo (or blockade?) be illegal?

Well, here's another question; why is the embargo causing any misery to the Cuban people?

Would the communist Cuba be any more affluent nation without such embargo?

Thanks in advance.
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The US Embargo against Cuba is underpinned by various pieces of US legislation.

1/. Trading with the Enemy Act of 1917
This allows the US President to restrict or ban any trade with an enemy of the United States during time of war. Most US government actions have been by executive order, authorised by this Act.
The US has yet to declare war on the Republic of Cuba or declare that a state of war exists between the US and Cuba.

2/.Cuban Assets Control Regulations of July 1963
These are regulations issued by the US Treasury based on the above Trading with the Enemy Act. The regulations cover a wide range of activity are have been promulgated by decree, not by law. Several of the regulations breach International Law, including:
Article 13 and Article 19 of the International Declaration of Human Rights, the 1958 convention of the High Seas (although the US has consistently refused to ratify the UN Law of the Sea Convention 1994, despite claiming its provisions in other disputes); The Warsaw Convention of Civil Aviation (1929) and the Chicago Protocols of 1944; The Breton Woods agreement (United States Congress, Public Law 90-269), and various GATT agreements.

3/.Cuban Democracy Act 1992
The Key point of this Act is that it states that “foreign subsidiaries” of US companies may not trade with Cuba, nor could FOREIGN NATIONALS in the employ of those companies engage in trade with Cuba.

4/. Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity (Libertad) Act of 1996 popularly called the Helms-Burton Act. This is among the most contentious as it “authorises” the US Justice department to act against any foreign company trading with Cuba under certain conditions and the arrest and legal proceedings against foreign nationals or their barring from the United States for “conducting business on property in Cuba that is the property of US Citizens”. The Act has several draconian provisions against non-US citizens who might just go about their ordinary business in a chilling precursor of “special rendition”.

5/. About fifteen United Nations resolutions against the US embargo. Although resolutions have been unanimously approved, usually with just the US and Israel voting against, any that are presented to the security Council are vetoed by the US, the US thus contests their legality although every other country (except Israel and Pilau) supports the resolutions.
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Old November 20th, 2012, 02:27 PM   #22

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Originally Posted by Sankari View Post
They're pro-embargo because they're anti-Castro. Of course, the embargo causes incredible misery and hardship to millions of innocent Cubans, but the Cuban-Americans in Florida don't seem to care about that.
The Cuban-Americans that I know care very deeply about it. They just don't see the embargo as the problem-they see Castro as the problem.
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Old November 20th, 2012, 02:58 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Ancientgeezer View Post
Some of us have a real life!
Hope that you too.

Thanks for the input
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Old November 23rd, 2012, 05:45 AM   #24

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The Cuban-Americans that I know care very deeply about it. They just don't see the embargo as the problem-they see Castro as the problem.
Granted that Castro and his cronies are the problem, I just can't see why we keep up with this. I recall that Cuba was fomenting revolution in other Latin counties for a couple decades, but that seems to be mainly over now, Che is long dead, Castro is ancient and there are revolutionaries in other places anyway. I have had the feeling for a while that the best way to unseat the regime there would be for the Cuban people to have access to the rest of the world so they can see that they are living in a 1960 marxist fantasyland and that it doesn't really have to be that way.

It makes me wonder if there isn't some truth to the paranoid idea that Castro is hanging on to some piece of awful knowledge about this country that presidents learn about when they come into office (The Desk of Secrets) that makes them want to continue to isolate the place until Castro dies. The problem with that idea is that I can't imagine what he could have that we have not already revealed about ourself anyway. I just don't get it.
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Old November 23rd, 2012, 07:11 AM   #25
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As a general question; let us imagine that this embargo 100% ended today.
What exactly would change?


Would communist Cuba suddenly become an economic success?

Could it even prove all their opponets wrong at least on such economic point?


Or would Cuba still remain an economic disaster even for Third World standards?

Ergo proving El Comandante was economically wrong from the beginning.


Or anything in the middle?
Or any other entirely different scenario?


Any guesses ???
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Old November 23rd, 2012, 07:30 AM   #26
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I think it is like when you stop talking to someone. The longer the time gets, the harder it is to get back together. We have been enemies with Cuba for so long the reasons no longer matter.
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Old November 23rd, 2012, 07:53 AM   #27

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The USA is incapable of having a sane, coherent policy towards Cuba
Your right. I never have understood why we did not try to change the hearts and minds by taking a different path. We used to live around a few Cubans, when we lived in Florida, and even though they hated Castro, they could not get over the fact that when the Soviet system fell why the U.S. did not go the other way with their former home.
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Old November 23rd, 2012, 12:50 PM   #28

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Concerning the Cuban economy, there are nations which have been investing in Cuba. But Cuba needs more foreign investment but it seems the problem is more nationalistic then political.

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A number of countries and their companies, from China, Russia and Brazil to Singapore and various European Union members, have expressed interest in investing in Cuba despite the U.S. trade embargo against the island, but to no avail.
They said the government is demanding a majority interest in all joint ventures and is dragging its heels or obfuscating in negotiations.
Part of the problem is Cuban concern about maintaining its independence and sovereignty, said a diplomat from a friendly Latin American country.
"The Cubans have an ideological problem, and it's not Communism, but nationalism," he told Reuters
"Our companies are simply not interested in only minority shares, which is all they offer ... then they go around boasting about how no foreign company owns a piece of their country," he said.
It is a complaint shared by many others, who said the Cubans were insisting on 51 percent ownership of new ventures, which companies do not want because they effectively lose control.
Another diplomat from a European country said even signed agreements languish because of the difficulty of finalizing details, whether it be due to lack of government clarity or changes it wants to make.
I think Cuban obsession with maintaining independence including economic independence has to do with remembering the times when Spanish and American companies controlled there economy while most lived poverty, in poverty.

Cuba struggles with foreign investment, growth | Reuters

Side note - In the above article they say there growth was the lowest in the region.

Quote:
The Cuban economy grew 2.7 percent last year and 2.4 percent in 2010, lagging well behind the region.
But Puerto Rico, which is also in the region, had a minus growth rate.
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Old November 23rd, 2012, 12:58 PM   #29

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I would assume this is a question of pride, US hates to admit defeat or that they were wrong, just look at the amount of members in this forum who still vehemly deny they lost in Vietnam.
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Old November 23rd, 2012, 04:40 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sylla1 View Post
As a general question; let us imagine that this embargo 100% ended today.
What exactly would change?


Would communist Cuba suddenly become an economic success?

Could it even prove all their opponets wrong at least on such economic point?


Or would Cuba still remain an economic disaster even for Third World standards?

Ergo proving El Comandante was economically wrong from the beginning.


Or anything in the middle?
Or any other entirely different scenario?


Any guesses ???
IMHO I would say the effect of ending the embargo would be somewhat profound on the cuban economy. Probably something around a 1% increase in GDP growth per year for the next ten years, with decreasing but still stronger growth after that for years and years to come. There would be three major causes for this,

1) as noted above by another poster, they need investment money, with America so close, they could see a lot of it.

2)Cuban cigars are widely believed to be some of the finest cigars around. Ending the embargo would mean immediately tens of thousands of new customers (they would still be quite expensive, which is the reason for the low number of customers).

3) Tourism could potentially explode. There are millions of former Cubans and Cuban-Americans living in Florida, many (most?) with some family still living in Cuba that I'm sure wouldn't mind going back to see them occasionally (as long as they aren't imprisoned or forced to live there or anything). Also Cuba has some very nice beaches and excellent spots for golf courses.

I'm going to admit that the next part is going to be pretty speculative, but, IMHO they could become the fastest growing economy in the carribean over the next decade if the emargo was lifted.
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