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Old November 23rd, 2012, 04:46 PM   #31
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IMHO I would say the effect of ending the embargo would be somewhat profound on the cuban economy. Probably something around a 1% increase in GDP growth per year for the next ten years, with decreasing but still stronger growth after that for years and years to come. There would be three major causes for this,

1) as noted above by another poster, they need investment money, with America so close, they could see a lot of it.

2)Cuban cigars are widely believed to be some of the finest cigars around. Ending the embargo would mean immediately tens of thousands of new customers (they would still be quite expensive, which is the reason for the low number of customers).

3) Tourism could potentially explode. There are millions of former Cubans and Cuban-Americans living in Florida, many (most?) with some family still living in Cuba that I'm sure wouldn't mind going back to see them occasionally (as long as they aren't imprisoned or forced to live there or anything). Also Cuba has some very nice beaches and excellent spots for golf courses.

I'm going to admit that the next part is going to be pretty speculative, but, IMHO they could become the fastest growing economy in the carribean over the next decade if the emargo was lifted.
Ergo, would you conclude that El Comandante was right after all?

(I.e. the main problem of the Cuban economy would not be any inherent failure but the noxious effects of the embargo)
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Old November 23rd, 2012, 05:08 PM   #32
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Ergo, would you conclude that El Comandante was right after all?

(I.e. the main problem of the Cuban economy would not be any inherent failure but the noxious effects of the embargo)
I think like most things, it is a half-truth. IMO Communism is not the best choice, but I don't believe it is a no growth system, just a slow growth system. Also communism seems to have great pains when trying to figure out farming.

Now don't get me wrong, I don't believe Cuba is going to overnight become a first world country, rivaling the US and Europe in GDP per capita. What I'm talking about is strong growth from a low standpoint. Curently their PPP is around 9k, in a decade I could see it being closer to 15k, a much better standard of living, but by no means near the top in the world.
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Old November 24th, 2012, 06:53 AM   #33

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Originally Posted by Telix View Post
IMHO I would say the effect of ending the embargo would be somewhat profound on the cuban economy. Probably something around a 1% increase in GDP growth per year for the next ten years, with decreasing but still stronger growth after that for years and years to come. There would be three major causes for this,

1) as noted above by another poster, they need investment money, with America so close, they could see a lot of it.

2)Cuban cigars are widely believed to be some of the finest cigars around. Ending the embargo would mean immediately tens of thousands of new customers (they would still be quite expensive, which is the reason for the low number of customers).

3) Tourism could potentially explode. There are millions of former Cubans and Cuban-Americans living in Florida, many (most?) with some family still living in Cuba that I'm sure wouldn't mind going back to see them occasionally (as long as they aren't imprisoned or forced to live there or anything). Also Cuba has some very nice beaches and excellent spots for golf courses.

I'm going to admit that the next part is going to be pretty speculative, but, IMHO they could become the fastest growing economy in the carribean over the next decade if the emargo was lifted.
I think the expatriate Cubans living in the US would be the saviors of the Cuban economy. As a group they have been enterprising and successful in the US, and I can't imagine that there would not be a lot of them that would just love to go back to their roots and create a new Cuba. This is a ridiculous piece of speculation but with all the Cubans in Florida, their money here and the likely business connections on the island, would a 51st state be the ultimate irony in all this?
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Old November 24th, 2012, 10:11 AM   #34

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I think the expatriate Cubans living in the US would be the saviors of the Cuban economy. As a group they have been enterprising and successful in the US, and I can't imagine that there would not be a lot of them that would just love to go back to their roots and create a new Cuba. This is a ridiculous piece of speculation but with all the Cubans in Florida, their money here and the likely business connections on the island, would a 51st state be the ultimate irony in all this?
Wasnt that how communism started in Cuba in the first place? (ie the USA companies owning everything).
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Old November 24th, 2012, 08:56 PM   #35

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Wasnt that how communism started in Cuba in the first place? (ie the USA companies owning everything).
They had a dictator, ruling class and Mafia connections that kept the regular folks in something like agricultural peonage. I don't think the same thing would happen now. I can easily imagine Cuba being a big tourist mecca and I bet there would be a lot of pent-up energy that would make it into the most important location in the Caribbean.
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