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Old March 27th, 2017, 10:37 AM   #1
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There will be more than 10 billion inhabitants in the World by 2050?


Nowadays we are around 7.2 billion inhabitants.

Africa, India, most of the muslim world and even Latin America (Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela) have high birth rates of over 2.2 children per woman which combined with incresing life expectancy guarantees an increasing population.

I personally believe we are going to see an increase in big migration movements and social conflicts. Internet will be even more important in these events.
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Old March 27th, 2017, 11:01 AM   #2

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According to the United Nations Population Division, the human population will hit 7 billion on or around Oct. 31, and, if its projections are correct, we're en route to a population of 9 billion by 2050, and 10 billion by 2100.

How Many People Can Earth Support?
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Old March 27th, 2017, 02:46 PM   #3

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futuristic View Post
Africa, India, most of the muslim world and even Latin America (Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela) have high birth rates of over 2.2 children per woman which combined with incresing life expectancy guarantees an increasing population.
The Fertiiity Rate for a stable world population is around 2.3 - lower for developed countries and a little higher for developing countries. Anything lower than this is not contributing to population growth.

A lot of demographers aren't calculating the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) correctly. If you take Africa out of the equation, the world's population is not replacing itself right now. The best demographers reckon that the world's population will peak at about 9 billion in the 2050s followed by a sharp decline.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/pr...ulation-growth

We need to start preparing for this now. How will societies adjust when the majority of the population is past retirement age? The first thing they will try is to increase immigration but this can't work. A nation will have to increase its incoming workforce every year indefinitely for it to counter increasing numbers of retirees.

There are only two long term solutions:
1) Everybody remains in the workforce for much longer - modern medicine can assist with that
2) Automate most jobs and give everyone a stipend that doesn't require working for a living.

Last edited by Dan Howard; March 27th, 2017 at 03:38 PM.
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Old March 27th, 2017, 03:22 PM   #4
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We need to start preparing for this now. How will societies adjust when the majority of the population is past retirement age?
automatisation and biochemical and genetical reserch to make old age less of problem would be desirable.
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Old March 27th, 2017, 09:49 PM   #5
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The Fertiiity Rate for a stable world population is around 2.3 - lower for developed countries and a little higher for developing countries. Anything lower than this is not contributing to population growth.


False. Check out the birthrates of India, Indonesia and Pakistan, the 2nd, the 4th, and the 6th most populated countries in the World.

And 2.1 children per woman still makes population grow.
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Old March 27th, 2017, 10:25 PM   #6

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False. Check out the birthrates of India, Indonesia and Pakistan, the 2nd, the 4th, and the 6th most populated countries in the World.
Read the article. It is irrelevant how populated each country is. What matters is the fertility rate and the average lifespan.

China is well under replacement rate
Indonesia is just under replacement rate.
India is just over replacement rate.
Pakistan is just under replacement rate.

Population in all of these countries will continue to rise for 2-3 decades because average lifespans are still increasing but population decline after that is already locked in.

Quote:
And 2.1 children per woman still makes population grow.
Only if few people die prematurely and the percentage of females is 50%. In the real world the replacement rate is 2.1 in developed nations and a little over 2.3 in developing nations.

Last edited by Dan Howard; March 27th, 2017 at 10:45 PM.
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Old March 28th, 2017, 01:18 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Howard View Post
Read the article. It is irrelevant how populated each country is. What matters is the fertility rate and the average lifespan.

China is well under replacement rate
Indonesia is just under replacement rate.
India is just over replacement rate.
Pakistan is just under replacement rate.

Population in all of these countries will continue to rise for 2-3 decades because average lifespans are still increasing but population decline after that is already locked in.


Only if few people die prematurely and the percentage of females is 50%. In the real world the replacement rate is 2.1 in developed nations and a little over 2.3 in developing nations.



You dont have any idea of what are you talking about.

Pakistan fertility rate in 2015 was 3.1 children per woman. Brutal.

India current fertility rate is 2.2 children. With a current life expectancy of 69 years and increasing, guarantees an enormous population growth and the SURPASSING of CHINA in the next two decades.

Indonesia fertility rate is 2.3 children per woman. With a life expectancy of 70 years and increasing, they will surpass 300 million inhabitants in the next decades.

You are terribly misinformed, check it out.
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Old March 28th, 2017, 01:43 AM   #8
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Its illogical to assume there is a "high infant death rate" when life expectancy is 70 years old.

High infant death rates make life expectancy incredibly low, like my country in 1910.
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Old March 28th, 2017, 02:29 AM   #9

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It has already been acknowledged that the world's population will grow by another billion people in the next few decades. What you fail to understand is what happens after that. Read the article. It acknowledges that India's population will exceed China's, but it also predicts what will happen after that.

Indeed, after adjusting for the gender imbalance, China’s Effective Fertility Rate (EFR) is around 1.5, and India’s is 2.45. In other words, the Chinese are very far from replacing themselves, and the Indians are only slightly above the replacement rate. The EFR stands at around 2.4 for the world as a whole, barely above the replacement rate. Current trends suggest that the human race will no longer be replacing itself by the early 2020’s. Population growth after this will be mostly caused by people living longer, a factor that will diminish in significance from mid-century...

India, the only large economy whose workforce will grow in sufficient scale over the next three decades, may partly balance the declines expected in other major economies. But, with birth rates declining there, too, current trends suggest that its population will probably stabilize at 1.55 billion in the early 2050’s"



"High infant death rate" was never mentioned either in this thread or in the relevant article.

Last edited by Dan Howard; March 28th, 2017 at 02:39 AM.
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Old March 28th, 2017, 02:38 AM   #10
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Quote:
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Read the article. It acknowledges that India's population will exceed China's. It also says that the population will stabilise in the 2050's.

Indeed, after adjusting for the gender imbalance, China’s Effective Fertility Rate (EFR) is around 1.5, and India’s is 2.45. In other words, the Chinese are very far from replacing themselves, and the Indians are only slightly above the replacement rate. The EFR stands at around 2.4 for the world as a whole, barely above the replacement rate. Current trends suggest that the human race will no longer be replacing itself by the early 2020’s. Population growth after this will be mostly caused by people living longer, a factor that will diminish in significance from mid-century...

India, the only large economy whose workforce will grow in sufficient scale over the next three decades, may partly balance the declines expected in other major economies. But, with birth rates declining there, too, current trends suggest that its population will probably stabilize at 1.55 billion in the early 2050’s"



"High infant death rate" was never mentioned either in this thread or in the relevant article.



The article is phony, you cannot know if birthrates are going to decline at an specifical year in India, that's a characteristic of highly secular and irreligious countries like europeans, China, and Japan.

India and the other countries I've mentioned have high religious influence and women mostly exercising traditional roles in their societies, unlike Germany or Belgium, for example.

And we all know what kind of agenda "World Economic Forum" has.
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