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Old January 3rd, 2018, 10:23 AM   #1481

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clam: https://www.theguardian.com/environm...?commentpage=1
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If Prof Wadhams is correct in his forecast that the summer sea ice could be gone by 2015, then we might be closer to the tipping point than we realise. To get to the bottom of the scientific basis for the Nature paper's scenarios, I interviewed Prof Wadhams. Here's what he had to say:
Reality? not much change
Click the image to open in full size. Ocean and Ice Services | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut
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Old January 3rd, 2018, 10:29 AM   #1482

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U.S. Average Temperature Plummets to 11 deg. F
January 1st, 2018 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
This morning at 7 a.m. EST, the area average temperature across the contiguous 48 states was a frigid 11 deg. F.

Here’s the high-resolution surface temperature analysis from NCEP, graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com:
Over 85% of the nation is below freezing, and nearly 1/3 is below 0 deg. F. The forecast is for cold air to continue to flow down out of Canada into the central and eastern U.S. for most of the coming week.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/ne...-early-january Dozens of daily record lows have been set, and more are likely into late this week.
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Old January 3rd, 2018, 10:40 AM   #1483
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Originally Posted by Lowell2 View Post
yep. and the climate hysterics would remove the fertilizers (which is basically either natural or chemical version of animal poo), machinery (most diesel driven) and land use for agriculture.

and the study isnt talking about increases since WW2, but changes with the same plants, fertilizers and technology..
Who are these "climate hysterics" who would remove fertilisers and land use for agriculture.

That bar chart you gave of world cereal production shows increase in world cereal production over the last 10 years. You can't show that the plants, amount of fertiliser, or standards of technology have remained the same in those 10 years.
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Old January 3rd, 2018, 10:49 AM   #1484
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Science didn't say anything about the polar bears. People claiming that polar bears were being driven to extinction based on "AGW" were saying that. And they claimed it was based on science, when it wasn't. here's an example:
https://blog.nature.org/science/2013...ce-polar-bear/ -- and the article does say 20-30 years. (which would be 2033). But polar bears aren't disappearing. their population is growing. Now yes, they could suddenly vanish by 2033 or 2043. And the planet could be smacked by a giant asteroid, too.
From the Nature article it says "Without human intervention, most polar bear populations will be extinct in 30-40 years" and "Most scientists agree that these trends spell likely trouble for polar bears.". 30 years takes us to 2044.
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Old January 3rd, 2018, 11:39 AM   #1485

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Originally Posted by Lowell2 View Post
Click the image to open in full size.
U.S. Average Temperature Plummets to 11 deg. F
January 1st, 2018 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
This morning at 7 a.m. EST, the area average temperature across the contiguous 48 states was a frigid 11 deg. F.

Here’s the high-resolution surface temperature analysis from NCEP, graphic courtesy of Weatherbell.com:
Over 85% of the nation is below freezing, and nearly 1/3 is below 0 deg. F. The forecast is for cold air to continue to flow down out of Canada into the central and eastern U.S. for most of the coming week.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/ne...-early-january Dozens of daily record lows have been set, and more are likely into late this week.
Europe, 3rd January, 2018 (in °Celsius):

Click the image to open in full size.

compared to 4th January 2008

Click the image to open in full size.

or 18th December 2009

Click the image to open in full size.

(the correspondence colour => temperature is identical for the three maps ...)

compared to what is considered the "normal average" for a January in Europe:


Click the image to open in full size.


5 to 15 °C (some places even 20°C, which is absolutely huge) more than usual this time of year. Usually, more than half of Europe is below zero °Celsius (water freezing point): Central, Eastern, Northern Europe.

Now even in Western Russia, Southern Scandinavia the temperature is over zero. Instead of snow there's rain, instead of going out skating, half of Europe is in orange/red alert for ... floods.

One might think that America planet is entered a cooling cycle, while the Europe planet has entered a warming one.

Or, maybe, we should not take individual, regional examples to demonstrate a global, extremely complex thing like Earth's climate.

If I use these days weather in Europe as an "irrefutable proof" for the global warming, I will be as wrong as You are by using these days weather in North-America as an "irrefutable proof" against the global warming.

Last edited by deaf tuner; January 3rd, 2018 at 11:54 AM.
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Old January 4th, 2018, 11:29 AM   #1486

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Originally Posted by fascinating View Post
Who are these "climate hysterics" who would remove fertilisers and land use for agriculture.

That bar chart you gave of world cereal production shows increase in world cereal production over the last 10 years. You can't show that the plants, amount of fertiliser, or standards of technology have remained the same in those 10 years.
Berkely, for one. Do try and do your own research. Fertilizer use responsible for increase in nitrous oxide in atmosphere | Berkeley News
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Old January 4th, 2018, 11:30 AM   #1487

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Originally Posted by fascinating View Post
Who are these "climate hysterics" who would remove fertilisers and land use for agriculture.

That bar chart you gave of world cereal production shows increase in world cereal production over the last 10 years. You can't show that the plants, amount of fertiliser, or standards of technology have remained the same in those 10 years.
Refer you back to the LAB STUDY which was under controlled conditions.
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Old January 4th, 2018, 11:39 AM   #1488

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From the Nature article it says "Without human intervention, most polar bear populations will be extinct in 30-40 years" and "Most scientists agree that these trends spell likely trouble for polar bears.". 30 years takes us to 2044.
2003 + 40 isn't 2044. it is, as I said, 2043. And without human intervention, a lot of animals would become extinct, NOT because of global warming, but simply because they aren't suited for competition (see Hawaii & Australia for a prime example) unless kept isolated from introduced competitors. Or because they have been hunted for food / pleasure (Dodo, passenger pigeon) or "not known" (ivory billed woodpecker). Climate change killed off many ice age animals (Columbia Mammoth comes to mind) -- no evidence that iteration of climate change was human-caused as opposed to natural + disease + hunting. California condor is a prime example. They'd die off without human intervention because they evolved to take advantage of a food source that went with mammoths. Same for pandas, many tiger subspecies, etc. Barbary lion probably due to a lot of causes, but human-caused climate probably NOT one of them. the fact remains that the claim was that polar bears were in dire straits and instead, their population has increased. if you want to assert that they are nevertheless doomed, please provide how that works in the face of a population increase.
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Old January 4th, 2018, 11:41 AM   #1489

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NoTricksZone: "Not here to worship what is known, but to question it" ? Jacob Bronowski. Climate and energy news from Germany in English ? by Pierre L. Gosselin 485 Scientific Papers Published In 2017 Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarm

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More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question climate alarm.

N(1) Natural mechanisms play well more than a negligible role (as claimed by the IPCC) in the net changes in the climate system, which includes temperature variations, precipitation patterns, weather events, etc., and the influence of increased CO2 concentrations on climatic changes are less pronounced than currently imagined.

N(2) The warming/sea levels/glacier and sea ice retreat/hurricane and drought intensities…experienced during the modern era are neither unprecedented or remarkable, nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability, as clearly shown in the first 150 graphs (from 2017) on this list.

N(3) The computer climate models are not reliable or consistently accurate, and projections of future climate states are little more than speculation as the uncertainty and error ranges are enormous in a non-linear climate system.

N(4) Current emissions-mitigation policies, especially related to the advocacy for renewables, are often ineffective and even harmful to the environment, whereas elevated CO2 and a warmer climate provide unheralded benefits to the biosphere (i.e., a greener planet and enhanced crop yields).
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Old January 4th, 2018, 11:55 AM   #1490

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[QUOTE=deaf tuner;2880577
5 to 15 °C (some places even 20°C, which is absolutely huge) more than usual this time of year. Usually, more than half of Europe is below zero °Celsius (water freezing point): Central, Eastern, Northern Europe.

Now even in Western Russia, Southern Scandinavia the temperature is over zero. Instead of snow there's rain, instead of going out skating, half of Europe is in orange/red alert for ... floods.

One might think that America planet is entered a cooling cycle, while the Europe planet has entered a warming one.

Or, maybe, we should not take individual, regional examples to demonstrate a global, extremely complex thing like Earth's climate.

If I use these days weather in Europe as an "irrefutable proof" for the global warming, I will be as wrong as You are by using these days weather in North-America as an "irrefutable proof" against the global warming.[/QUOTE]

UAH Global Temperature Update for November 2017:+0.36 deg. C « Roy Spencer, PhD
Quote:
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for November, 2017 was +0.36 deg. C, down substantially from the October, 2017 value of +0.63 deg. C:
and note the "average" is based on 1981 on, not comparing to say, the medieval warm period.

Global area-averaged lower tropospheric temperature anomalies (departures from 30-year calendar monthly means, 1981-2010). The 13-month centered average is meant to give an indication of the lower frequency variations in the data; the choice of 13 months is somewhat arbitrary… an odd number of months allows centered plotting on months with no time lag between the two plotted time series. The inclusion of two of the same calendar months on the ends of the 13 month averaging period causes no issues with interpretation because the seasonal temperature cycle has been removed as has the distinction between calendar months.

Click the image to open in full size.

additional discussion here: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/...ellite-record/

(That means that in the 39 years since satellite instruments started collecting atmospheric temperature data, the air temperature above the U.S. has warmed an average of about 1.25 degrees Fahrenheit.) --Which is as likely to be due to a warming period post glacial as any "humans are doing it" theory. Or simply a warmer period well within normal variations, since again, 39 years is not a significant time period for climate.

the point of my post regarding the US was the assertion that the US would no longer see any such cold periods and that snow would become "unknown".
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