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Old April 15th, 2018, 01:31 AM   #1
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Comment on an article from Scientific American


John Horgan: Is science Hitting a wall?
The theme: It seems likely that where societies spend more and more work, education and money for research, the returns may often decrease with time. I think the first are on the whole true: The number of people with long academic education has in general grown so much more than the populations of the world, and probably the work ours spent on science, as well as the money spent upon instruments as well as any other facilities for the sciences. Could the second point also be true: That the returns don´t increase as fast or there is even in many cases a decrease of significant results? Though a big question is how to measure those "returns" or results.
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Old April 15th, 2018, 02:06 AM   #2

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The kind of thing that only academics worry about.

This Korgan fellow somewhat lacks knoweldge of how science works. To some degree, you can spend money and further the ball down the field, but things open up with accidental discoveries, and discoveries compounding each other. In Carl Sagan's excellent THE DEMON HAUNTED WORLD, he used the hypotheical example of Queen Victoria trying to develop a TV in the 19th century. She had money and great minds of the leading civilization of the earth, and yet could not have done it. The theoretical science simpy was not there.

We live in an era when we have just documented the Higgs Boson. Let's wait until we get the real fall out from that before we declare science bottle-necked. Then let us discover what dark matter and dark energy really are. Perhaps we we can see what is under the ice sheets on Europa, Enceladus, and a few of the other moons believed to have oceans, and do some comparative biology for the first time ever. etc. etc. Super-heavy elements...artifical intelligence...These are all doors, that, when opend up, will lead to a thousand other doors. Wait until we start cross-referencing the results.
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Old April 15th, 2018, 02:18 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by cachibatches View Post
The kind of thing that only academics worry about.

This Korgan fellow somewhat lacks knoweldge of how science works.
So, He writes for Scientific American, have written books about scientific subjects but lacks knowledge. And You?
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Originally Posted by cachibatches View Post
To some degree, you can spend money and further the ball down the field, but things open up with accidental discoveries, and discoveries compounding each other. In Carl Sagan's excellent THE DEMON HAUNTED WORLD, he used the hypotheical example of Queen Victoria trying to develop a TV in the 19th century. She had money and great minds of the leading civilization of the earth, and yet could not have done it. The theoretical science simpy was not there.

We live in an era when we have just documented the Higgs Boson. Let's wait until we get the real fall out from that before we declare science bottle-necked. Then let us discover what dark matter and dark energy really are. Perhaps we we can see what is under the ice sheets on Europa, Enceladus, and a few of the other moons believed to have oceans, and do some comparative biology for the first time ever. etc. etc. Super-heavy elements...artifical intelligence...These are all doors, that, when opend up, will lead to a thousand other doors. Wait until we start cross-referencing the results.
What dark matter and dark energy really are? If it is anything but something imagined? But if we concentrate about what has happened over the later years, admitting uncertainty of what the future may or may not bring, I wonder if he is not already right about at least some fields (he mentioned cancer research).
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Old April 15th, 2018, 03:02 AM   #4

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So, He writes for Scientific American, have written books about scientific subjects but lacks knowledge. And You?)
I referenced Carl Sagan who actually was a first class scientist. This guy wrote "book." Good for him.

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What dark matter and dark energy really are? If it is anything but something imagined? But if we concentrate about what has happened over the later years, admitting uncertainty of what the future may or may not bring, I wonder if he is not already right about at least some fields (he mentioned cancer research).
Again, cancer research will be fine once new, unexpected discoveries, and the results of "pure science" research that are not cancer specific affect the field. No, it may not be possible, to throw more bodies and more money at it.

Really, I highly recommend THE DEMON HAUNTED WORLD. Try it for a different persepective.
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Old April 15th, 2018, 03:12 AM   #5
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I referenced Carl Sagan who actually was a first class scientist. This guy wrote "book." Good for him.



Again, cancer research will be fine once new, unexpected discoveries, and the results of "pure science" research that are not cancer specific affect the field. No, it may not be possible, to throw more bodies and more money at it.

Really, I highly recommend THE DEMON HAUNTED WORLD. Try it for a different persepective.
Yes! In "tomorrow land" cancer research as other research will be "fine"! And while now dead Sagan may be more famous from the Horgan bio I have read I think he is not that "nobody" You seems to think. And, so I will add: I suspect there could be some sort of "bias" towards being more "optimistic" about prospects of scientific discoveries. Who will, after all, get the more attention? The scientist claiming sensational new findings? Or the sceptic that make a point being cautious?

Last edited by Fantasus; April 15th, 2018 at 03:15 AM.
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Old April 15th, 2018, 03:18 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fantasus View Post
John Horgan: Is science Hitting a wall?
The theme: It seems likely that where societies spend more and more work, education and money for research, the returns may often decrease with time. I think the first are on the whole true: The number of people with long academic education has in general grown so much more than the populations of the world, and probably the work ours spent on science, as well as the money spent upon instruments as well as any other facilities for the sciences. Could the second point also be true: That the returns don´t increase as fast or there is even in many cases a decrease of significant results? Though a big question is how to measure those "returns" or results.
I find this incredibly pessimistic. Science will increase exponentially on the basis of how much input we put into its development or:

“Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of innovation.” –Ray Kurzweil


This is the spirit of collective learning as human beings.
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Old April 15th, 2018, 03:20 AM   #7
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I find this incredibly pessimistic. Science will increase exponentially on the basis of how much input we put into its development or:

“Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of innovation.” –Ray Kurzweil
While I have not read anything but short sentences by Kurzweil, I have a sense he is overhyped.
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Old April 15th, 2018, 03:22 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by cachibatches View Post
The kind of thing that only academics worry about.
As someone who has completed enough work to do a post-graduate thesis. This really isn't how the academic community thinks at all.
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Old April 15th, 2018, 03:25 AM   #9
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While I have not read anything but short sentences by Kurzweil, I have a sense he is overhyped.
I have simply chosen a quite out of expediency. It's not a matter of being over hyped or not. It is the race of ever expanding human technology and this is something historians spend a great deal of time thinking about. I detect a great deal of naivety in your post. Get back to me once you've heard and understood this.

https://www.ted.com/talks/david_chri...pt?language=en
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Old April 15th, 2018, 03:44 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by orestes View Post
I have simply chosen a quite out of expediency. It's not a matter of being over hyped or not. It is the race of ever expanding human technology and this is something historians spend a great deal of time thinking about. I detect a great deal of naivety in your post. Get back to me once you've heard and understood this.

https://www.ted.com/talks/david_chri...pt?language=en
You disagree with my post? Fine. That is not the same as to say "fine" when adressing me as some juvenile schoolboy.
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