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Old June 10th, 2010, 05:24 PM   #1
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History as an Alternation of Static and Creative Periods


Found an interesting essay - The Cycles
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Old December 11th, 2012, 05:10 AM   #2
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An interesting article relevant to the present times and events.

Fear of a Black Swan ~

Quote:
The idea that catastrophe can strike without warning does not seem particularly hard to understand. Why doesn't Wall Street ever seem to allow for that possibility? And why doesn't it learn from past catastrophes?

Why Wall Street fails to anticipate disaster - Apr. 3, 2008

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/12/11/bu...html?hpt=hp_c1
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Old December 11th, 2012, 08:34 PM   #3

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Originally Posted by Jhangora View Post
Found an interesting essay - The Cycles
Interesting indeed. I will have to take a more in-depth look when I have time.
For now, I'll observe that it is actually pretty easy to impose any pattern on history that one thinks one sees. Sometimes, the results provide insight; sometimes not.
The real question seems to me to be this: is history truly cyclical, literally going nowhere, or is it linear (and a 'spiral' that moves forward even as it apparently circles back is linear), heading in a direction? Under the first option, "'static' and 'creative' periods" are an illusion.
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Old December 11th, 2012, 11:36 PM   #4
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Interesting indeed. I will have to take a more in-depth look when I have time.
For now, I'll observe that it is actually pretty easy to impose any pattern on history that one thinks one sees. Sometimes, the results provide insight; sometimes not.
The real question seems to me to be this: is history truly cyclical, literally going nowhere, or is it linear (and a 'spiral' that moves forward even as it apparently circles back is linear), heading in a direction? Under the first option, "'static' and 'creative' periods" are an illusion.
I'd say nature is cyclical and so is History.
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