Historum - History Forums  

Go Back   Historum - History Forums > Themes in History > Speculative History
Register Forums Blogs Social Groups Mark Forums Read

Speculative History Speculative History Forum - Alternate History, What If Questions, Pseudo History, and anything outside the boundaries of mainstream historical research


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old November 27th, 2017, 03:17 PM   #1
Lecturer
 
Joined: Nov 2017
From: Guadalajara
Posts: 478
Hitler tasks Manstein, Guderian and Kleist with the planning of Barbarossa.


OTL
Hitler and Von Paulus (who had never led men in combat, he was a military bureaucrat) planned Barbarossa ignoring all the principles of Blitzkrieg. Hitler dispersed forces and then caused them to diverge, instead of converge. Then, during the invasion, Hitler changed plans on the fly.
He wasted the short window of decent time in the USSR and allowed Stalin to deploy reinforcements from the east and build fortifications around Moscow, thus effectively defeating Germany. Moreover, Germany invaded the USSR alone, Finland, Romania and Hungary not attacking for crucial weeks. Italy and Spain did not send troops until the war was lost (after the battle of Moscow).

ATL
After the stellar performance of Mansteinīs sickle-cut plan in France and after realizing that Guderian was right in pressing rapid advance rapidly, deep into enemy territory and Hitler and Rundstedt were worng in ordering him to stop repeatedly and on stopping the offensive against Dunkirk, Hitler tasks Mannerheim, Guderian and Kleist with planning and executing Barbarossa.

The brilliant planners and leaders immediately realize that the huge German army has extremely few trucks, many of them seized in the west and not fit for heavy, military use in a country without paved roads. Moreover, the railroad gauge is wider, so they make sure that a large force is assigned to rapidly move a rail to narrow the gauge. Moreover they will use paratroopers to capture Soviet trains (so they can be used even before the gauge is changed to supply the front) and massive transport planes (TB-3).

They also prepare a large force to pave roads as the army advances.

Most importantly, the 3 planners know that Blitzkrieg depends on surprise (attacking where least expected), force concentration, deep penetration with moderate losses and inflicting great casualties and column convergence.

They come up with a brilliant plan, which uses the coasts of the Baltic and Caspian seas to protect the flanks (advance with fewer losses). They concentrate all the armor and vehicles and most of the planes in these areas. The LW will destroy Soviet aviation sink the fleets in both seas and support the Panzers' advance. The KM will provide shellingwith its heavy guns to support the advance along the Baltic and it will help ensure supplies by sea.

All Panzer and motorized divisions will be split equally between the two armies, which will also receive 2 elite infantry divisions each and most of the 88 mm guns (the heavier, clumsier 105 mm AA guns will be left defending the stationary border.
Guderian will lead Army Group North (AGN) and Kleist Army Group South (AGS).
Most of the infantry and heavy artillery will remain to defend the strong border (Poland and Romania) against Soviet attack. This force will be supplied well, with trains and short supply lines. It will keep 80% of the horses.

Manstein explains to Hitler that for Barbarossa to succeed, there can be no mass murders, persecution of Jews, Communist officials, etc, until it has succeeded. Men are sorely needed to correct RR gauge, pave roads, etc, and cannot be wasted in actions against civilians. Moreover, the population in occupied areas must be treated well during Barbarossa, to ensure cooperation and minimize partisan activity. Hitler agrees and orders Himller to put all his men under Manstein and have them start immediately to train for gauge change, paving roads, etc, well and rapidly.

BT-7 tanks and KV-1 tanks (which the Finns had already fought in the winter 1939-40) will be targetted for capture or if damaged by AT guns, will be rapidly repaired, using parts from other damaged tanks.

The planners also realize that the huge Soviet territory and army, with thousands of tanks, cannon, etc, will require as many men as possible to fight and occupy. They convince Hitler to request that Romania (which has considerable artillery and infantry, but a small air force and navy), attack together with Kleist to seize and occupy Odessa, Nikolaev and Kharkov. That Italy send 3 infantry divisions with plenty of artillery to (reinforce German infantry defending the border) and 2 armor divisions, 1 each for Kleist and Guderian. Finland must also attack on the same day as Germany and Romania, to cause even more confusion and casualties and to complicate Soviet troop deployment. Manstein talks to Mannerheim, who is impressed by the plan and agrees to attack simultaneously, counting on heavy LW support in the Baltic.

Because the area involved is not exposed to flooding, like the Pripiet Marshes are (which OTL delayed the attack, although the Balkans are often blamed), Barbarossa is set for Sunday June 15.

The LW catches the fleets completely unprepared and sinks all ships in 3 days. Sooviet planes are completely wiped out on the coasts. AGN and AGS have extremely strong forces and heavy air support. They rapidly overwhelm the weak defending forces (the bulk of the Red Army is far from the coast and cannot be deployed in time, as planes destroy trans, trucks, tanks, etc, as soon as they are 200 km from the coasts.

Stalin orders massive offensives against the border, which are poorly coordinated and supplied. Most tanks never run out of fuel or break down. Those reaching the border are tricked into advancing through a gap, which is rapidly closed, trapping the invaluable tanks in German lines. Despite terrible losses in men and equipment (tanks, cannon, trucks, trains, etc,), Stalin pressed the border attacks and orders attacks on AGN and AGS.

Leningrad and Kharkov fall in 3 weeks, Guderian and Kleist advance toward Moscow quite rapidly, denying the Soviets time to redeploy and build fortifications, dig AT trenches by hand, replace tank losses, etc, AGN and AGS are supplied by sea and land (along the coast). Gauge modification and road pavement advance with remarkable efficiency, under Mansteins supervision.
ruthenium is offline  
Remove Ads
Old November 27th, 2017, 04:59 PM   #2

Karl XII's Avatar
Scholar
 
Joined: Feb 2015
From: washington
Posts: 635

Another one of these threads......

Anyway the soviets still win despite higher than real life casualties.
Karl XII is offline  
Old November 27th, 2017, 06:25 PM   #3

Lord Fairfax's Avatar
Tickling the Dragons tail
 
Joined: Jan 2015
From: Rupert's Land ;)
Posts: 2,681

Quote:
They come up with a brilliant plan, which uses the coasts of the Baltic and Caspian seas to protect the flanks (advance with fewer losses). They concentrate all the armor and vehicles and most of the planes in these areas. The LW will destroy Soviet aviation sink the fleets in both seas and support the Panzers' advance
How exactly will the Nazis deploy to the Caspian Sea?
Lord Fairfax is offline  
Old November 27th, 2017, 06:53 PM   #4
Historian
 
Joined: Apr 2011
From: Georgia, USA
Posts: 6,412

I seem to recall that Halder had something to do with Barbarossa

How about a different question; What if Germany stuck to Barbarossa and not divert into the Ukraine ?
Poly is offline  
Old November 28th, 2017, 06:59 AM   #5
Lecturer
 
Joined: Nov 2017
From: Guadalajara
Posts: 478

Quote:
Originally Posted by Karl XII View Post
Another one of these threads......

Anyway the soviets still win despite higher than real life casualties.
OTL Stalin was so shocked by the rapid collapse of the red army and air force, that he asked the Bulgarian ambassor to mediate peace with Germany. Luckily for Stalin (the luckiest idiot who ever lived), the Bulgarian told him to negotiate directly, giving Stalin time to rethink.

Had Romania, Finland, Italy, Spain and Hungary struck simultaneously with Germany., chaos and losses at the front would have been even worse in the critical first 2 weeks. Instead, Rumania, Hungary and Finland wasted invaluable time and Italy and Spain did not send troops until the war was lost after Moscow.

OTL AGN and AGS had weak Panzer forces and AGS encountered massive Soviet armor, including over 1,300 T-34 and KV-1, so Kleist lost 200 of his ridiculously few 800 Panzers in a week (and did not receive replacements, because Hitler had ordered all tanks comming out of production held in reserve). He then was redirected by Hitler all the way to Nikolaev, then all the way back to close the Kiev pocket. Effectively wasting invaluable weeks and hundreds of tanks.
ATL Kleist is attacking with a larger Panzer and LW forces and area with a lot fewer Soviet armor, artillery and infantry, so Odessa falls in days (instead of the 3 months and thousands of Romanian casualties it too OTL) and invaluable industry in Kharkov falls in early July
ruthenium is offline  
Old November 28th, 2017, 07:00 AM   #6
Lecturer
 
Joined: Nov 2017
From: Guadalajara
Posts: 478

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Fairfax View Post
How exactly will the Nazis deploy to the Caspian Sea?
Sorry I meant the Black Sea
ruthenium is offline  
Old November 28th, 2017, 07:13 AM   #7
Lecturer
 
Joined: Nov 2017
From: Guadalajara
Posts: 478

Quote:
Originally Posted by Poly View Post
I seem to recall that Halder had something to do with Barbarossa

How about a different question; What if Germany stuck to Barbarossa and not divert into the Ukraine ?
OTL Guderian and Hoth had the strongest Panzer and LW force, but with both flanks exposed, attacking heavily fortified areas and with Hitler and artillery officers directing the show (Blitzkrieg), Barbarossa was doomed from the outset. Guderian and Hoth were forced to waste invaluable time closing pockets around Briansk, Minsk, Smolensk, etc,

OTL After achieving devastating deep penetration, Manstein and Hoepnner were forced to waste an invaluable week for infantry to catch up, giving the Soviets time to redeploy and reinforce the way to and around Leningrad.

Barbarossa did not rely on the principles of Blitzkrieg (so it did not achieve a single of its many objectives): 1) Attack where they ain't. 2) Panzers are to advance as fast as possible, going around fortified areas, which infantry has to reduce. Deep penetration causes communications, supplies and reinforcements collaps. 3) Strong force concentration, if possible with a protected flank. 4) strong force convergence for devastating effect at the critical point (Moscow, the communications and transportation hub).
Barbarossa split the Panzer divisions into 4 week forces (espcecially AGN and AGS, ridiculously weak and doomed). It had weak AGS attack the strongest concentration of fortifications, armor, artillery, planes and infantry in the world in Kiev, etc,

Last edited by ruthenium; November 28th, 2017 at 07:59 AM.
ruthenium is offline  
Old November 28th, 2017, 07:56 AM   #8
Lecturer
 
Joined: Nov 2017
From: Guadalajara
Posts: 478

Going back to the planning stage.

The 3 brilliant planners realize that after the RR gauge, unpaved roads and trucks, fuel is the limiting factor and that Germany is wasting huge industrial resources producing synthetic fuel. In contrast, Iran has huge oil fields and Britian just built the largest refinery in the world in Abadan. They also realize that the South Caucasus oil is vital for the USSR and that Swedish Boford AA and AT guns, ball bearings, copper and iron ores, territorial waters, navy, pilots, etc, are necessary to defeat the USSR promptly.

They come up with a clever ruse in March, 1941 to induce Turkey, Iran and Sweden to join the axis and allow German occupations:

Send Ribbentrop to Moscow and inform Swedish, Turkish and Iranian diplomats that Germany and the USSR are negotiating to invade and share their countries, as they did in Poland. However, if these countries join the axis and allow the axis forces to reinforce their countries (as Romania did), their countries will not be divided.
Manstein also asks Mannerheim to inform Sweden that large Soviet and German forces will cross Finnish territory and waters to invade Sweden and Finland can do nothing to stop them.

The 3 weak nations know they cannot stop the USSR and Germany and that Soviet and German invasion in Poland caused heavy Polish losses, massive destruction and effectively wiped out Poland. In contrast, Romania is doing well with German troops preventing Soviet invasion. They all agree to join the axis and allow German troops, Turkey also allows the Italian navy to use Turkish ports and to enter the Black Sea.

OTL the large Italian navy was nearly useless in 1941, for lack of fuel. ATL, ithas unlimited fuel and it is must usefull in the Black Sea, with German air dominion.

The 3 brilliant leaders manage to convince Hitler that Rommel is being wasted in Libya, where it cannot be supplied or reinforced properly, since the USSR will drain all German Panzers, planes, cannon, munitions, etc, produced by the limited German industry. In contrast, Britain is sending all the armament, planes, etc, it produces, plus those it gets from the US in huge quantities to Africa, along with unlimited numbers of troops from India, Australia, NZ, South Africa, Britain, etc,

Now that Iran and Turkey have joined the axis, it is much better to abandon useless Libya and deploy Rommel's Panzers and Italian armored divisions to Turkey and Iran, to invade the invaluable South Caucasus at the beginning of Barbarossa, with heavy German and Italian air support, heavy artillery from the Italian navy to support the advance along the Black Sea coast and a strong infantry from Italy, Turkey and Iran. Italian naval artillery will also help to seize Odessa, Sevastopol, Novaya Rossiya, etc, during Barbarossa and land troops in the North Caucasus.

Manstein convinces Hitler of the necessity of Japan attacking Britain and the USSR also on 15 June 1941. He suggests that Hitler inform Japan, that unless Japan attacks Vladivostok, Malaya. Singapore, New Zealand, Tasmania, New Caledonia and extremely weak British Borneo (to secure oil), Rabaul and Port Moresby, all treaties and alliances with Japan will be null and avoid, so Japan will have to fight the US alone.
Once these invaluable locations are secured, Japan can invade Hong Kong, Rangoon and Ceylon, declare Indian independence and induce India to join the axis, in order to receive fuel, Burmese rice, etc, Indian troops can be most helpful for Japan in China, allowing the IJA to deploy experienced divisions from China to the USSR.
The rapid seizure of British colonies and Vladivostok and the liberation of India and its joining the axis with 370 million people will convince American isolationists to oppose war with axis and L-L very strongly.

In August Japan can invade South Africa and its numerous submarines can start operating in the Atlantic, devastating British shipping.

Once the USSR collapses after terrible losses during the first months of Barbarossa and Britain loses colonies, ships and face to supposedly primitive Japan, the US will have to stop giving millions in L_L aid and start arming itself, so Britain will have to sue for peace.

Last edited by ruthenium; November 28th, 2017 at 08:12 AM.
ruthenium is offline  
Old January 2nd, 2018, 02:57 PM   #9
Lecturer
 
Joined: Nov 2017
From: Guadalajara
Posts: 478

Japan knows that it cannot fight the huge US alone, so it might as well attack only the USSR and British territories aince these countries will be already fighting huge German forces and Japan cannot continue fighting China without oil (which it can easily gain in British Borneo and Burma). The plan to liberate India and have it join the axis by seizing Rangoon and Ceylon will secure the axis victory with millions of Indian troops helping Japan against China, Britain and the USSR. India's huge population and the British debacle will certainly disuade Americans from declaring war on the axis. Liberating long oppressed India will also be good press for Japan in the US.

So on 15 June, 1941 Japan does strike all the suggested areas and does extremely well everywhere. Japanese aviation soon wipes out Soviet and British planes and the limited number of invasions produces even more impressive results than in the OTL huge number of invasions in much more strongy defended British, Dutch and American territories. In June there are extremely few troops in Malaya, practically none in Borneo, Port Moresby, Singapore, Tasmania, New Caledonia, NZ, etc, Japan has 150 intact oilwells and a refinery in British Borneo, plus a few oil wells and a small refinery in Burma. it can continue fighting, without invading the DEI or PI, Guam, etc. Ceylon is the world's main producer of rubber and Malayan rubber has also been seized. If the US wants rubber it has to buy it from Japan or DEI, but US ships will have to sail past the IJN to get to the DEI, so the US cannot afford war with Japan or it will be out of rubber.

From Singapore, Japan invades Ceylon, Mauritius, Goa, Reunion and Rangoon before Britain can reinforce them. It rapidly seizes them and declares Indian independence. India joins the axis to gain axis to oil, Burma rice, etc, Japan also seizes Portuguese Timor and Macao.

In August it invades invaluable South Africa, so its submarines and planes and U-boots can now operate from it. Britain suffers terrible shipping losses in the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean and it cannot reinforce Egypt, Iran, Iraq, etc, Japan also transports Indian troops to invade Madagascar, Mozambique, Kenya, Somalia, Aden, etc,

The British debacle and heavy Soviet losses cause the US to cancel L-L and stop arming itself, USN ships stop escorting British convoys, which suffer even more losses. Britain has to capitulate. Leaving Germany free to concentrate on the USSR. The capitulation document specifies that Britain will sell trucks, Hurricanes, etc, to Germany and its allies. Finnish pilots do extremely well with Hurricanes and Guderian, etc, are much better supplied with British trucks.

Last edited by ruthenium; January 2nd, 2018 at 03:18 PM.
ruthenium is offline  
Old January 2nd, 2018, 10:11 PM   #10
Historian
 
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 11,264

Is this before or after Japan has conquered all of the US, Canada and Mexico ?
tomar is online now  
Reply

  Historum > Themes in History > Speculative History

Tags
barbarossa, guderian, hitler, kleist, mannerheim, manstein, planning, tasks



Thread Tools
Display Modes


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Hitler never uses Manstein's Plan and France holds Conrad von Hotzendorf Speculative History 5 April 6th, 2017 03:43 PM
Hitler cancels Barbarossa, and launches total war invasion of Britian Mrbsct Speculative History 261 May 25th, 2015 10:06 PM
If Hitler didn't divert forces during Operation Barbarossa, would Moscow have fallen? Cmyers1980 War and Military History 9 February 15th, 2015 01:11 PM
What if Hitler didn't sack Guderian at the end of 1941? Cmyers1980 War and Military History 2 February 13th, 2015 06:15 PM
Was the USSR planning to attack Germany before Barbarossa? CosmoDodo War and Military History 162 August 31st, 2013 11:05 PM

Copyright © 2006-2013 Historum. All rights reserved.