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Old December 12th, 2017, 03:41 PM   #11
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If somebody trounces you and offers you your life and a fortune, do you accept it or continue taking a beating?

You are not placing yourself in late 1940. Chiang is not concerned about recovering China, he is fighting for his life, even his officers had arrested him for not supporting the Communists against Japan and he barely got out of the bind.
He had lost all his elite troops, trained by German officers, he had no planes, except a few Soviet planes, he had to dismount his small Mauser factory to move it far away, had destroyed invaluable dams, flooding huge areas and killing thousands and was even removing the railroad behind him just to slow down the Japanese chasing him. Suddenly he gets an offer to finally eliminate the Communists, unify still a formidable China (he could not control the huge original territory anyway without help) and to get oil, rubber and rice from DEI and Burma, chromium, diamonds, gold, etc, from South Africa, etc, He would have to be really stupid to prefer to continue being rapidly defeated. He doesn't know that Japan will stupidly force the US into the war in late 1941 and allow it years to build up its armament industry and produce materiel, munitions, planes, food, ships, etc, to smother the axis. As far as he knows, Japan will continue pounding only China with its ever stronger army and air force for years, until China collapses.

Last edited by ruthenium; December 12th, 2017 at 03:43 PM.
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Old December 12th, 2017, 04:11 PM   #12
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I've consistently argued that the Japanese could have won WWII in the Pacific given the window they could have had with total naval superiority. The main issue with the OP's scenario is he assumes the Japanese army in China could just be refocused and that changes everything, Japan didn't lose it's war because it's forces were divided, there wasn't really much room for Japanese land troops, it's navy just was defeated by the US for the most part, no need for massive amounts of soldiers in the fight in the Pacific. Yeah, maybe in the USSR that's a different story, but those troops would need to be transported to the America's over the Pacific ocean. Also the Japanese like the British also put a great deal more focus into their navy than their army. It was their navy that attacked Pearl Harbor and had a chance to defeat the US, it was their navy that embarrassed the Russian's, the Japanese army is not the Japanese navy and I feel that OP's scenario doesn't appreciate that.

Like I've said, Japan in our timeline had a 13 month+ window to realistically achieve total naval superiority in the Pacific. I've always said that if they secured their control of the Pacific islands and Hawaii and bombed the West Coast they could have gotten a favorable outcome as even if the US could outproduce Japan, Japan would have a substantial head start and one more big Japanese carrier victory could put the US back years more.

That being said this is in regard to the navy, if you propose sending the Japanese navy into North America(or any other part of America), that is just a pipe dream and there is just no path forward there.

First let's stop with the easier part, Latin America. Sure Japan could conquer parts of Latin America once they've overcome the larger obstacle of getting them there, but A doesn't that just become a different form of the insanity in China except with MUCH longer supply lines that would be entirely dependent on long term Japanese naval superiority? While I say Japan being able to achieve long term naval supremacy is possible, I'm saying it could have been done and wasn't impossible, I'm not saying it was probable or even likely. Even naval supremacy would see the Japanese supply to these areas be a vulnerable target. If the US managed to cut off this area, oops a ton of Japanese troops are trapped in the America's.

Second, Japanese invasion of the US that goes beyond bombing from carrier aircraft would be unable to yield anything but a negative outcome for the Japanese. The US has about twice the population and far more industrial capacity(most of which wouldn't be in Japanese range). Aircraft carriers are built on the East coast at New port News and thanks to the Panama Canal taking the West Coast wouldn't really stop the US from having the capacity to hit the Japanese back. Taking both would be a serious potential long term problem for the US if the Japanese had the ability to make that permanent. They wouldn't, US could just mass their forces and take Panama back by force.

In terms of California I was just humoring the hypoethical the Japanese could take the West Coast that's a pipe dream. Once you put land troops in the game, we're talking the Japanese army not the navy which was the more powerful and focused aim of Japan's military. They'd be destroyed by the better equipped, larger US forces who would be reinforced from the East. Even getting a beachhead for a few hours would honestly shock the hell out of me. It would be almost impossible for a Japanese invasion to take the US by surprise given the size of the Pacific Ocean and given the size of the Pacific coast any invasion couldn't hit the whole coast and would have to go for a portion of it and the result would be that the Japanese even if initially victorious would be very quickly surrounded. The point is invading the West Coast with land troops would be a terrible idea and the Japanese's only smart plans for attacking us would have been to bomb the major population centres their carriers can reach and try to get a deal and maybe try to take Panama to make the region harder to access. Anything else only ends in defeat for the Japanese.
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Old December 12th, 2017, 04:25 PM   #13
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Chiang wasn't that close to being defeated in 1940. Yes, he had lost many battles and a lot of territory, but he still had a large piece of China still under friendly control. And Japan was starting to feel the logistical strain. And the US was starting to come around. Maybe the US didn't take much action that early, but Chiang had reason to be optimistic.

If you're arguing that Chiang was primarily motivated by greed (and I think recent scholarship is moving away from this) then I would argue that Chiang had reason to expect more foreign aid from the US than he would ever get from Japan.

Why would Japan ever enter into an alliance with Chiang? What does Chiang bring to the table that Japan needed? Chiang had a large army but it wasn't very good and it would have been difficult to deploy it outside of China. Even today, China has only the tiniest ability to project force beyond its borders. It was far less capable in 1940. In 1944 the US considered using Chinese troops to invade Japan but that idea went no where.
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Old December 12th, 2017, 04:44 PM   #14
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Continuing with the thread:

Timeline

From the beginning war goes extremely well for the coalition, which rapidly seizes HK, British Borneo, Malaya-Singapore, Burma, the DEI and then Ceylon and South Africa, acquiring invaluable resources and bases.
Japan has seized a considerable merchant fleet from Britain and Holland in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which greatly helps to supply and reinforce the invasion forces.

The coalition even received good press in the US, owing to declaring India's independence and trouncing the British and Dutch empires in record time.
Indian independence and its joining the axis results in Indian forces taking over British positions in Iran, Irak, Aden, Somalia, etc,

Britain cannot supply its forces in North Africa and without Australian, NZ, Indian and South African troops and without American and British ships delivering tanks, planes, munitions, cannon, fuel, trucks, etc, in Egypt after sailing around South Africa (which has been captured), so it loses ground rapidly to Rommel. Tobruk cannot be supplied nor reinforced and collapses, so Rommel advances into Egypt.

June 22 Germany invades the USSR, declares war on the US and u-BOATS start sinking seizing and sinking US ships along the Pacific coast (from Japanese bases) and the Gulf and eastern seabord, using also the 25 J-boats (Japanese submarines).

Japanese submarines flying German the German flag start seizing and sinking US ships. Since Japan has sold subs to Germany and made it public, the USN thinks they are German boats.

On June 29 Japan, China and India declare war on the USSR and invade Vladivostok, Sakhalin, Mongolia and liberate Xin Jiang from Soviet forces to invade East Kazakhstan. Indian forces advance from Iran into the Caucasus and along the eastern Caspian coast toward W Kazakhstan (chromite mines, etc,). Soviet planes, armor, etc, take a beating, since the Japanese and Chinese AT guns rapidly knock out the mostly light tanks.

The USN loses a CV and a BB and 2 CA in the Atlantic and Pacific and a hundred merchant ships in 2 weeks.

On July 4:
Vancouver and Vancouver Island, Tijuana, Acapulco, Tehuantepec and Valparaiso fall immediately. During the landings, Japanese naval planes have attacked US aviation and warships in Seattle and San Diego and destroyed them mostly on the ground.
The IJN is seizing or sinking a great many US, Canadian, Soviet, British and Mexican merchant and warships all along the Pacific coast of the Americas.

IJN subs sink several warships returning and leaving PH. The few warships that try to attack the invasion force are quickly dispateched by Japanese planes and massed warships.

San Francisco and L-A proove a little more difficult, but aviation and navy are wiped out and strong beach heads are in place at 1000. Axis troops are pouring in and advancing rapidly.
by 2000 all targeted cities have been seized and troops have crossed the borders and are in position to attack Seattle and San Diego. Troops have seized trains and trucks everywhere and are advancing from Vancouver to the east on RR extremely fast. From San Francisco to Sacramento, L.A. to Hoover, Dam, Acapulco to Mexico City, across Tehuantepec to the Gulf, etc,

Panama is taken completely by surprise by special forces from ships travelling across Panama and falls in 3 days. the IJN starts entering the Gulf.

Canadian, US and Mexican response is extremely weak and inefficient, hindered by Japanese air superiority, heavy naval artillery and hoardes of refugees fleeing the axis forces.

July 6 San Diego and Seattle have fallen and Bellingham is under attack. Japanese troops are advancing from Tehuantepec's Gulf port to Veracruz. Mexico City and Puebla are being shelled and bombed and the axis (under Yamashita) is continuously broadcasting in spanish that the only way for the onslaught to stop, is for Mexico to join the axis and declare war on the beleaguered US. Pressure on the Mexican government and military is extremely high. Throngs are leaving both cities, clogging up roads. Mexico has lost its few biplanes, has no tanks and a small, ineperienced army, which is incurring terrible casualties (mostly as prisoners). Yamahita broadcasts the number of Mexican ´prisoners and that they will be released the day Mexico joins the axis.
The Mexican and Canadian governments are appalled by the poor American response and the inability of the US to aid them. President Cardenas contacts Yamashita on 7 July to request admition into the axis.
Yamashita enters Mexico City, signs the documents, wellcomes Mexico into the axis, releases all prisoners and summons the Cuban, Honduran, Guatemalan, Nicaraguan and Salvadoran ambassadors. He delivers them an ultimatum to join the axis within 3 daysor be bombed, blockaded and invaded.

Cuba, Guatemala and Honduras join the following day.

On 9 July Yamashita sends troops by rail and truck (including Mexican troops) to attack Laredo and Las cruces. Nicaragua joins the axis.
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Old December 12th, 2017, 04:46 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EmperoroftheBavarians43 View Post
I've consistently argued that the Japanese could have won WWII in the Pacific given the window they could have had with total naval superiority. The main issue with the OP's scenario is he assumes the Japanese army in China could just be refocused and that changes everything, Japan didn't lose it's war because it's forces were divided, there wasn't really much room for Japanese land troops, it's navy just was defeated by the US for the most part, no need for massive amounts of soldiers in the fight in the Pacific. Yeah, maybe in the USSR that's a different story, but those troops would need to be transported to the America's over the Pacific ocean. Also the Japanese like the British also put a great deal more focus into their navy than their army. It was their navy that attacked Pearl Harbor and had a chance to defeat the US, it was their navy that embarrassed the Russian's, the Japanese army is not the Japanese navy and I feel that OP's scenario doesn't appreciate that.

Like I've said, Japan in our timeline had a 13 month+ window to realistically achieve total naval superiority in the Pacific. I've always said that if they secured their control of the Pacific islands and Hawaii and bombed the West Coast they could have gotten a favorable outcome as even if the US could outproduce Japan, Japan would have a substantial head start and one more big Japanese carrier victory could put the US back years more.

That being said this is in regard to the navy, if you propose sending the Japanese navy into North America(or any other part of America), that is just a pipe dream and there is just no path forward there.

First let's stop with the easier part, Latin America. Sure Japan could conquer parts of Latin America once they've overcome the larger obstacle of getting them there, but A doesn't that just become a different form of the insanity in China except with MUCH longer supply lines that would be entirely dependent on long term Japanese naval superiority? While I say Japan being able to achieve long term naval supremacy is possible, I'm saying it could have been done and wasn't impossible, I'm not saying it was probable or even likely. Even naval supremacy would see the Japanese supply to these areas be a vulnerable target. If the US managed to cut off this area, oops a ton of Japanese troops are trapped in the America's.

Second, Japanese invasion of the US that goes beyond bombing from carrier aircraft would be unable to yield anything but a negative outcome for the Japanese. The US has about twice the population and far more industrial capacity(most of which wouldn't be in Japanese range). Aircraft carriers are built on the East coast at New port News and thanks to the Panama Canal taking the West Coast wouldn't really stop the US from having the capacity to hit the Japanese back. Taking both would be a serious potential long term problem for the US if the Japanese had the ability to make that permanent. They wouldn't, US could just mass their forces and take Panama back by force.

In terms of California I was just humoring the hypoethical the Japanese could take the West Coast that's a pipe dream. Once you put land troops in the game, we're talking the Japanese army not the navy which was the more powerful and focused aim of Japan's military. They'd be destroyed by the better equipped, larger US forces who would be reinforced from the East. Even getting a beachhead for a few hours would honestly shock the hell out of me. It would be almost impossible for a Japanese invasion to take the US by surprise given the size of the Pacific Ocean and given the size of the Pacific coast any invasion couldn't hit the whole coast and would have to go for a portion of it and the result would be that the Japanese even if initially victorious would be very quickly surrounded. The point is invading the West Coast with land troops would be a terrible idea and the Japanese's only smart plans for attacking us would have been to bomb the major population centres their carriers can reach and try to get a deal and maybe try to take Panama to make the region harder to access. Anything else only ends in defeat for the Japanese.
Japan lost the war because it used a stupid raid to force the giant into the war, without touching its terriotory or industry, so it had years to learn and produce.
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Old December 12th, 2017, 08:51 PM   #16

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Chiang's wife speaking English is poor grounds for Chinese policy, Chiang spoke Russian and Japanese, and his son was in the Wehrmacht at the time of the invasion of Czechoslovakia, so what?

Between 1937 and 1940 (the relevant time in this timeline) Stalin provided much more weapons, planes, pilots, etc, than the US. The US did extremely little for China, even in 1941, when Britain was sucking up L-L billions, China had to pay a fortune for American planes and mercenaries, the flying tigers and for other goods. Incredibly, Britain received 31 billion (mostly wasted blowing up houses in Germany and farting around for years in North AFrica against a couple of German divisions). In contrast, Russia fighting over a 100 divisions received 12 billion and China less than 4 (fighting a lot more Japanese troops than the few marines and army in the Pacific and most of that was flown from India at great cost starting in late 1943 and part received by the Communists through the USSR. 1937-1940 Roosevelt was doing practically nothing for China. He did not even embargo oil and scrap iron until Indochina was invaded (not over China being invaded!). The Japanese bought the license from Hamilton-Standard to build the 4 blade propeller for the G4M during this time!
Where did you find that Chiang Ching kuo was ever in the German army?
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Old December 13th, 2017, 08:44 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by EmperoroftheBavarians43 View Post

First let's stop with the easier part, Latin America. Sure Japan could conquer parts of Latin America once they've overcome the larger obstacle of getting them there, but A doesn't that just become a different form of the insanity in China except with MUCH longer supply lines that would be entirely dependent on long term Japanese naval superiority? While I say Japan being able to achieve long term naval supremacy is possible, I'm saying it could have been done and wasn't impossible, I'm not saying it was probable or even likely. Even naval supremacy would see the Japanese supply to these areas be a vulnerable target. If the US managed to cut off this area, oops a ton of Japanese troops are trapped in the America's.

Second, Japanese invasion of the US that goes beyond bombing from carrier aircraft would be unable to yield anything but a negative outcome for the Japanese. The US has about twice the population and far more industrial capacity(most of which wouldn't be in Japanese range). Aircraft carriers are built on the East coast at New port News and thanks to the Panama Canal taking the West Coast wouldn't really stop the US from having the capacity to hit the Japanese back. Taking both would be a serious potential long term problem for the US if the Japanese had the ability to make that permanent. They wouldn't, US could just mass their forces and take Panama back by force.

In terms of California I was just humoring the hypoethical the Japanese could take the West Coast that's a pipe dream. Once you put land troops in the game, we're talking the Japanese army not the navy which was the more powerful and focused aim of Japan's military. They'd be destroyed by the better equipped, larger US forces who would be reinforced from the East. Even getting a beachhead for a few hours would honestly shock the hell out of me. It would be almost impossible for a Japanese invasion to take the US by surprise given the size of the Pacific Ocean and given the size of the Pacific coast any invasion couldn't hit the whole coast and would have to go for a portion of it and the result would be that the Japanese even if initially victorious would be very quickly surrounded. The point is invading the West Coast with land troops would be a terrible idea and the Japanese's only smart plans for attacking us would have been to bomb the major population centres their carriers can reach and try to get a deal and maybe try to take Panama to make the region harder to access. Anything else only ends in defeat for the Japanese.
Invading unexpecting sparsely populated, practically undended (ridiculous armies and air forces) territory in Latin American is a world away from fighting millions experienced Chinese troops after 3 years of war.

The US army was a sad joke in July 1941. L-L had depleted the US army sources, arming Britain in North Africa. Patton had to use flour sacks to simulate hits on cars and trucks, playing the role of tanks. Patton was so far from modern, air supported warfare that he did not stand a chance.
American forces along the Pacific seabord were much weaker in July 1941 than they were in Luzon on Dec 8, 1941, where powerful aviation was promptly wiped out and infantry and marines were trounced and had to hole up in Corregidor and even there, with powerful artillery and bunkers were trounced.

America expected an attack in the PI and was trounced, did not expect it in Hawaii and was trounced, despite being strong, did not expect it at all in California or Washington State, where it was weak and would be trounced by experienced Japanese, Chinese and Indian forces.

You think the US was well equipped in July 1941, you are dead wrong. It had no tanks, lousy planes (the P-38 was not yet deployed and was having serious compressibiulity problems and the factory would soon fall in Japanese hands), even Wildcats and lousy Buffalo were scarce in vital Bellingham and San Diego.

Yamashita with only 3 divisions trounced 100,000 British, Homa trounced MacArthur's strong force. The experienced axis division would sweep through invalñuyable territory.

Even after PH, California was extremely weak for months. 5 months earlier, in July it was a sad joke. Specially since ATL the USN and army and at war with Germany and will think that Japan is even less likely to invade California than OTL in Dec 1941, because it has overextended itself by invading South Africa, Tasmania, New Caledonia, NZ and the USSR, so it has no need or capabilities to attack US territories (even the PI, much less California). So they concentrate on fighting U-boats along the eastern and wPacific seaboards.
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Old December 13th, 2017, 08:46 AM   #18
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Where did you find that Chiang Ching kuo was ever in the German army?
Chiang had several sons, one of them in Russia, another one was a Panzer commander in Czechoslovakia.

forum.axishistory.com//viewtopic.php?t=48158

Last edited by ruthenium; December 13th, 2017 at 08:53 AM.
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Old December 13th, 2017, 10:09 AM   #19
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If Japan is willing to throw its war China, i.e. its ambitions there, it might as well wind that war down at US insistence, and go for getting rich by peaceful industry and trade — like it did post-WWII anyway.

There is no reason for Japan to fight the US if it's not fighting a war in China. It could only lose like that, and at least the sharper knifes in the box of the IJN (like Yonai and Yamamoto) were perfectly aware of this.
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Old December 13th, 2017, 10:24 AM   #20

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Without an opposing navy weak South Africa, Tasmania and New Zealand are easy for for Japan to invade and supply and invaluable as front bases.

Somehow, everybody missed India's independence and joining the axis, which causes Iran and Iraq to collapse to the axis.

The loss of South Africa denies the Indian Ocean to Britain, so when Rommel strikes and German planes close the Med to the RN, British forces in Egypt and Tobruk cannot be supplied and reinforced around South Africa (no Australian, Indian, NZ or South African troops arrive in Egypt, nor Lee tanks, artillery, etc,) and Rommel advances rapidly. Egypt falls, Britain is kicked out of the Med, so Turkey has to join the axis (which is in Bulgaria, Egypt, Irak and Iran.

U-boats are resupplying in South Africa and causing great damage to British shipping in Venezuela, etc,

So Britain is in deep trouble and near capitulation or joining the axis to avoid capitulation.

The axis needs a huge army for Stage III.


On 31 May, 1941. The Japanese ambassador asks for a one to one meeting with Hitler. He informs Hitler that the US, Canada and Mexico are much richer and much weaker than the USSR and that the Asian axis will invade them On 4 July, 1941, which will prevent the US from providing L-L aid for Britain and eventually ghe USSR (if Germany invades it). However, for the invasion to be successful, it is imperative that Germany declare war on the US in Late June (on the grounds of breaking neutrality by providing USN escort fort British cconvoys) and start sinking US ships along the eastern seabord and the Gulf of Mexico, in order to force the US to concentrate on defending the Atlantic.

Moreover, Japan will sell immediately 25 submarines and 2,500 rootpedoes, shells, etc, to the KM and deduce 3 million marks for the German debt for fuel, etc, for every USN CV sunk, 2 million for every BB or CA, 1 million ofr every Cl and a half million for every submarine or DD sunk and buy all captured ships and cargo delivered in Tehuantepec (after it is invaded9, where U-boats can resupply to wreak havoc on the Gulf and eastern seabord. Japan will also pay for 30 experienced U-boat officers to sail on a mission at a time a totla of 3 times, in order to train IJN crews and show the tactics and procedures.

In return for German declaration of war on the US, Japan, China and India will invade the USSR within a week of German invasion.

Hitler has benefitted greatly from Japanese advances and Hitler knows that if Stalin is attacked on 2 fronts, he will lose rapidly, so he agrees to declare war and attack US ships on 22 June, 1941.

Roosevelt has made the huge mistake of deploying all the BB and most of the capital ships to PH, where they can be bottled up by submarines in the deep water just outside the harbor. The USN in San Diego, Bellingham, San Pedro, S.F., etc, is quite weak and air defenses rather weak and inefficient (no radar-fighter scrambling coordination, etc,).


On 4 July:
1) 2 Japanese, 2 Chinese and 2 Indian divisions land in Vancover and Vancouver Island to advance rapidly to Seattle, eastward along the Transcontinental Canadian RR, S toward Portland and SE toward invaluable Grand Coulee and the Dalles dams and aluminum plant.

2) an equal force lands in Tijuana and advances to San Diego and then to L. A.

3) An equal force lands in San Pedro (L. A.) and advances to L. A. Hoover dam, the oilfields, San Francisco and Sand Diego.

4) An equal force lands in San Francisco and advanced to Sacramento and Donner Pass, L- A. and Portland.

5) a division from each of the 3 countries lands in Acapulco in advances to Mexico City and Puebla, which are to be bombed and shelled as soon as possible to induce extremely weak Mexico to join the axis.

6) A Japanese division lands in Tehuantepec to seize the RR and take the Gulf terminal on the same day (riding on captured trains). Then to use seized ships to invade Veracruz, the main Mexican port, close to the oilfields, to induce Mexico to join the axis.

7) Japanese planes from formosa will wipe out US planes, ships, depots, etc, in the PI, isolating MacArthur's large force in Luzon (self-feeding prisoners). Once US planes are wiped out, small forces will land in undefended Mindoro and Palawan to build airfields and submarine bases to blockade the Americans in Luzon.

8) 30 IJN submarines will sink all ships patrolling off PH and sink all ships leaving or approaching PH and Honolulu, with special enphasis on CV.

9) A Japanese division will seize Valparaiso to induce Chile to join the axis, denying the eastern south Pacific to the USN.

10) Special forces from the 3 countries attack Panama. A large part is hidden in cargo and passenger ships sailing across Panama.

11) Almost all the IJN will deploy in the Pacific Americas.

12) small forcse will land in Attu, Dutch Harbor, Anchorage, Juneau and White Horse, so that G3M, G4M, etc, can fly from the Ryu Kyus to Vancouver

12) Infiltrated forces posing as tourists, diplomats, merchant sailors, etc, will already be on shore to seize the crucial Boeing, Lockheed, Catalina and other factories and key personnel (designers, etc,), the power and aluminum plants in the dams.
In may, the Americans who have broken the Japanese codes, sortie their fleet and attack the Japanese navy in a surprise attack, obliterating it.
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