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Old December 27th, 2017, 08:02 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by ruthenium View Post
The distance Japan-Vancover is nothing, Japanese ships transported millions of tons of oil, scrap iron, lumber, etc, for long years before the war.

While the Japanese were fighting millions of Chinese on 7 Dec, 1941 (having to supply them), they landed large armies in the PI (which wiped out Mac's stronger force, with a more powerful air fleet than that in WA state), landed several divisions each in Malaya, Thailand, Hong Kong, Guam, the Gilberts, etc, while all their CV, 2 BB, etc, were trouncing the USN, aviation, etc, in PH, all simultaneously and within weeks attacked Wake, which they failed to take at first, only because they had no guns heavier than destroyers and CL and no airplanes, while the US had 12 Wildcats (which were invaluable at the time, so it was rather stupid to waste them in an untenable island, which fell as soon as carrier planes and heavier guns returning from the PH raid attacked it. Because of that stupidity, invaluable Yorktown and Enterprise returning separately to PH were extremely vulnerable, had few fighters and some of them useless Buffalo, The USN was extremely lucky that Nagumo rushed away with his invincible fleet, instead of lingering to send a 3er wave and sink at least a weak carrier with his six), Borneo, etc, Burma, Singapore, etc, Within konths the Japanese also raided Darwin and Ceylon (quite far from Japan and from each other, but close the the former DEI, controlled by Japan. In a couple of months Japan wiped ou all American, British, Dutch planes and troops over a huge area with limited food, etc, Just the 700 km they pedalled on bicycle in Malaya, through jungles, etc, for 3 division to capture over 100,000 British troops is a colossal feat, compared to landing in Mexico, Canada and extremely sparsely populated and weakly defended US west coast. Similarly, 2 divisons in extremely difficult Burma defeated several British divisions, 10 Chinese division (rushed in too late, because the British didn't think that they needed them).

ATL no transport capacity or Japanese troops are wasted on China and all those locations, the Japanese have acquired even more ships from the British in the Pacific Indian Ocean, when they took Singapore, Ceylon, South Africa, etc, and declared Indian indipendence and they have millions of experienced Chinese troops available. The west coast has more food than people, again, it is an invader's dream compared to Chang Sha, Central Burma, the Kokoda Trail, Borneo, Malaya, etc,
What you fail to take into account is that all these japanese victories you mention were obtained against ennemies that were extremely far from their logistical bases and support. There is a huge difference between beating a relatively small US force in the Philippines and beating much larger US forces at home in the US.

Also I really dont see where the japanese were "trouncing" the USN.. The biggest individual victory that the Japanese scored was the surprise attack on Pearl... Never again during the whole war would they be able repeat that.. Never again did they sink so many capital ships and destroy so many planes in one day.... Those japanese victories were obtained fighting weak forces engaged piece meal.... They were not at the time facing any concentrated effort... In any cases these victories stopped within 6 months...
What the japanese did against the US is basically take outposts, or the first line of defense if you prefer.... They were not even able to mount a serious challenge to Pearl Harbor....... California was out of the question

And raids dont mean much... Huge difference between raids and actual occupation....
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Old December 27th, 2017, 08:05 AM   #42

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logistics get harder exponentially. the Japanese made a huge effort to launch one carrier raid of a few hours. I can't see them invading and conquering Hawaii, let alone California.
even if they capture allied shipping resources they would have to get crews, fuel, etc. the further from their Islands the shakier the supply situation and the more advantages to the allies. and we can be sure the US would burn or sabotage every useable item and commodity.

woe to anyone who sets foot on American soil with hostile attempt. as attributed to Admiral Yamamoto, guns behind every blade of grass.
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Old December 27th, 2017, 08:17 AM   #43

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.........................

woe to anyone who sets foot on American soil with hostile attempt. as attributed to Admiral Yamamoto, guns behind every blade of grass.
Which he most likely never said.
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Old December 27th, 2017, 08:19 AM   #44
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logistics get harder exponentially.
even if they capture allied shipping resources they would have to get crews, fuel, etc. .
good point

the fuel situation was particularly bad for the japanese... they only had access to about 3 million tons of oil a year (vs about 200 for the US).... 1 mio tons buys you the operations of 2 000 planes per year ..... the larger ships gobble fuel at an ungodly rate, which led the japanese to cut down on fleet operations as early as 1942

One capital ship consumes about 300 tons of fuel per day at cruise speed (and more if it tries to move faster)... So even if its used only about a third of the time, it will consume as much as 50 000 tons per year... Thats ONE capital ship.... (the Bismarck for example could carry 6 000 tons of fuel)... The Yamato would consume 70 tons of fuel per HOUR at max speed...
So a million tons of fuel roughly buys you the operations of 20 capital ships per year

Then there is the need of the rest of the navy, the rest of the army and the industry....
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Old December 27th, 2017, 08:28 AM   #45

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.............Please read more carefully before you comment. I never claimed that Japan and China invaded India, I said that the coalition invaded Burma (from China and Thailand) and Ceylon, much easier to invade at the mentioned time than Malaya and Burma were OTL in 1941, with hundreds of British planes and large forces from India, Britain and Australia in Malaya, which were promptly beaten by Yamashita's 3 divisions. The coalition simply declares Indian independence. With Japan ruling the Indian Ocean, India has to join the coalition to buy Burmese rice, japanese oil, etc, from Sumatra and Japanese industrial products and to expand into Iran, British colonies, etc, with an invincible coalition.

...........................
Slight problem-- Japan did actually call India independent ,and even set up an administration in a few isolated islands, and what you describe didn't happen it remained British.
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Old December 27th, 2017, 08:43 AM   #46
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Slight problem-- Japan did actually call India independent ,and even set up an administration in a few isolated islands, and what you describe didn't happen it remained British.

Well, you CAN assume it somehow happens... but India at the time , just like China , could only supply men, not machines.... So even with India somehow allied to it, the Japanese situation does not actually get much better... yes it gets some additional manpower of dubious quality and commitment which it likely can only use for garrison duty (most of which would be in India anyway).... Perhaps it can raise a couple of elite divisions for operations outside in India, but that would be about it....
Japan is still outproduced in every category: planes, ships, tanks etc... And still has a dire shortage of oil....

also the term "invicible coalition" reads like a propaganda poster... really....
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Old December 27th, 2017, 09:03 AM   #47

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Well, you CAN assume it somehow happens... but India at the time , just like China , could only supply men, not machines.... So even with India somehow allied to it, the Japanese situation does not actually get much better... yes it gets some additional manpower of dubious quality and commitment which it likely can only use for garrison duty (most of which would be in India anyway).... Perhaps it can raise a couple of elite divisions for operations outside in India, but that would be about it....
Japan is still outproduced in every category: planes, ships, tanks etc... And still has a dire shortage of oil....

also the term "invicible coalition" reads like a propaganda poster... really....

Its not beyond the realms of possibility and there was an independence movement.

But we know from history that Japan did proclaim Indian Independence ,established a 'Free' Indian and even raised an Indian army and it didn't have the effect claimed in this 'fanciful' scenario.

Given what happened at Independence the sub-continent is more likely to be a source of on-gong internal conflict (especially with the British still involved) as a power base of an invincible coalition.
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Old December 27th, 2017, 09:13 AM   #48
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Its not beyond the realms of possibility and there was an independence movement.

But we know from history that Japan did proclaim Indian Independence ,established a 'Free' Indian and even raised an Indian army and it didn't have the effect claimed in this 'fanciful' scenario.

Given what happened at Independence the sub-continent is more likely to be a source of on-gong internal conflict (especially with the British still involved) as a power base of an invincible coalition.
I must admit I dont know much about the internal situation in India in the early 40s.... For example how high were tensions (especially between the muslims and the hindus which just a few years down the line would lead to the creation of Pakistan and Bengla Desh) ? But its also why I am assuming that most of the force that Japan could potentially raise in India would be needed for internal garrison.... And I am sure the brits would play off these tensions IF India somehow became allied to Japan...

edit: I guess we need some of our indian posters here to give us some pointers about such a scenario
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Old December 27th, 2017, 09:35 AM   #49

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That primitive, arrogant thinking is precisely what caused the PH debacle. They assumed that Hawaii (very far from Japan and quite close to Acapulco, Tijuana and San Diego) was defended by distance, so poor, small and primitive Japanese could only attack the PI, where Mac, could easily defeat them (magically, because the USN had a few WW I 4 stackers, 2 CL and a CA, which hauled ass to British Borneo, before the attack, because they knew they would be sunk on the first day by the IJN and aviation from Formosa, so how the hell do you defend an archipelago, without a fleet?)

The same primitive, arrogant thinking drove Churchill to waste two BB. The bombastic bastard assumed that the huge IJN fleet and Japanese avation would be affraid of his new Prince of Wales, which was sunk in hours of combat, with bombers all the way from very distant Indochina.

South Africa is much closer to Ceylon than it is to Britain, is extremely weak and inexperienced and it has more food than people, and good climate, so it is easy to invade from Ceylon.

Please read more carefully before you comment. I never claimed that Japan and China invaded India, I said that the coalition invaded Burma (from China and Thailand) and Ceylon, much easier to invade at the mentioned time than Malaya and Burma were OTL in 1941, with hundreds of British planes and large forces from India, Britain and Australia in Malaya, which were promptly beaten by Yamashita's 3 divisions. The coalition simply declares Indian independence. With Japan ruling the Indian Ocean, India has to join the coalition to buy Burmese rice, japanese oil, etc, from Sumatra and Japanese industrial products and to expand into Iran, British colonies, etc, with an invincible coalition.

I find it amusing that Americans often deride the 1939 Polish army, with horses, etc, on 1 Spet, 1939, the US army had a lot fewer and more primitive tanks and planes than Poland did and a much smaller and more poorly trained and equipped army. The USN had lots of 4 stackers, the worst torpedoes in the world, less reliable than Norwegian, Italian or Soviet torpedoes, while Japan had the formidable long lance, etc, The USN and US army and air force became formidable, only after long years of investing ridiculously huge amounts of money on Britain, the USSR and itself and ridiculously small amounts on China, so they could buy time for it to produce enough armament for its incompetent forces to smother the more competent, but eventually more poorly equipped axis military. ATL the US does not have time and as it loses oil, industry, farmland, etc, the coalition becomes stronger. Germany is defeating Britain, because millions of tons or US and British armament and supplies are not reaching the incompetent British military in North Africa (the axis in South Africa and the US rushing to arm itself), the European axis attacking New England, New Orleans, etc, would pulverize the US in weeks.
No. Its a basic understanding of logistics. In 1941 no country on earth could land and support a multidivision force across 1,000 miles of ocean, much less the titantic distances involved in the Pacific. Japan could never land more than a few divisions at a time, and not the distances involved. Indeed, it is a matter of great debate whether Japan's invasion force of Midway Island would have succeeded, or been destroyed in detail.

It took years for the US, in full production mode, to be be able to ship mass formations of troops, and even then they needed close bases (Britain, Okinawa) to do so. Look at the scale of the fleets involved for DDay, or even something smaller like Iwo Jima.

Indeed as proof, the Japanese could not ship and support enough troops to hold Guadalcanal, against 1st Marine, much less land on an alien coast making them subject to attack by multiple divisions.
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Old December 27th, 2017, 09:35 AM   #50

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good point

the fuel situation was particularly bad for the japanese... they only had access to about 3 million tons of oil a year (vs about 200 for the US).... 1 mio tons buys you the operations of 2 000 planes per year ..... the larger ships gobble fuel at an ungodly rate, which led the japanese to cut down on fleet operations as early as 1942

One capital ship consumes about 300 tons of fuel per day at cruise speed (and more if it tries to move faster)... So even if its used only about a third of the time, it will consume as much as 50 000 tons per year... Thats ONE capital ship.... (the Bismarck for example could carry 6 000 tons of fuel)... The Yamato would consume 70 tons of fuel per HOUR at max speed...
So a million tons of fuel roughly buys you the operations of 20 capital ships per year

Then there is the need of the rest of the navy, the rest of the army and the industry....
IIRC the IJN Pearl Harbor force had to refuel en route back to Japan and refit for some time after.
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