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ruthenium December 8th, 2017 01:29 PM

Japan stops the insanity in China and goes for the jogular of the rich and weak Ameri
 
Japan realizes that it is absurd to waste the mighty IJN and Chinese army over useless territory, when the Americas are extremely weak. In Dec 1940 Japan offers Chiang to abandon half the conquered territory and assit him to eliminated Communists and rebellious landlonrds, if China joins a coalition with Japan and Thailand to invade weak Briti and Dutch colonies and eventually the Americas.

Plan:

Stage I early April 1941

1) China and Thailand (8 Chinese and 5 Thai divs) will invade Burma with Japanese air support, securing rice and oil.

2) China and Thailand (8 Chinese and 5 Thai divs) will invade Malaya with Japanese air support, securing rice, rubber, tin, etc,

3) The IJN will wipe out the RN and Dutch navy.

4) China and Japan will invade Sumatra (2 divs each), equal forces invade Java and Dutch Borneo

5) Japan will invade British Borneo, securing fuel.

6) A Chinese div invades Hong Kong, with IJN and air support.

7) 2 Japanese divs will seize Singapore.

8) A Japanese div will invade New Zealand, an equal force will invade Tasmania, 1/2 div will invade New Caledonia. Isolating Australia between coalition forces in Java, New Zealand and Tasmania.

The US will not dare declare war on a coalition with millions of troops, a stronger Pacific fleet than its own and bases so far east and west.

ruthenium December 8th, 2017 01:36 PM

Stage II Late May 1941

1) 3 Chinese and 2 Japanese divs from Sumatra will invade Ceylon, declare Indian independence and induce India to join the coalition, in order to buy rice, fuel, etc, to expand and to develop a steel industry and sell iron ore and steel to Japan and China. Indian will render the coalition practically invincible.

2) 4 Japanese and 4 Chinese divs from Sumatra will invade South Africa, securing chromium, gold, diamonds, coal, etc, and denying the Indian Ocean to the RN.

3) 3 Japanese and 3 Chinese divs will invade Australia, securing manganese and iron ores, meat, wool, sugar, etc,

Chlodio December 8th, 2017 02:13 PM

Japan might have better luck allying with Mao's Communists rather than Chiang's Nationalists. Chiang's wife was educated in America, was nominally a Christian, and spoke excellent English. By the time Japan saw their folly in China, Chiang may have grown too close to the Americans, drawing much foreign aid from the US. It wasn't just government aid, but also many American missionary organizations and other NGOs were heavily invested in China. And Chiang was heavily invested in them.

New Zealand, Tasmania, etc were beyond Japan's logistic reach. Don't believe what some sources say about Japan cutting off Australia - it would have never happened.

There wasn't much opportunity to use a large Japanese army in the Pacific war. If Japan had made peace in China, they would have had a large army that had nothing else to do. Maybe they could have invaded Siberia, but China was probably more profitable for Japan.

Scaeva December 8th, 2017 03:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ruthenium (Post 2868243)

The US will not dare declare war on a coalition with millions of troops, a stronger Pacific fleet than its own and bases so far east and west.

Does Japan have a much larger navy in this scenario than it did historically? China and Thailand had practically nothing to contribute to a naval war, meaning even in this alternate scenario victory or defeat hinges entirely on the fortunes of the Imperial Japanese Navy. It's still going to be a conflict whose outcome is determined in large measure by naval battles between United States and Japan, and that's a conflict that the U.S. won historically.

Even in a scenario where China is allied with Japan against the United States (a far-fetched one, bordering on fantasy), the war has the same outcome. China may have had millions of men but they were useless in a naval war. Who controls the sea and the skies above them is going to determine who wins the Pacific War, just as it did historically.

ruthenium December 12th, 2017 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chlodio (Post 2868266)
Japan might have better luck allying with Mao's Communists rather than Chiang's Nationalists. Chiang's wife was educated in America, was nominally a Christian, and spoke excellent English. By the time Japan saw their folly in China, Chiang may have grown too close to the Americans, drawing much foreign aid from the US. It wasn't just government aid, but also many American missionary organizations and other NGOs were heavily invested in China. And Chiang was heavily invested in them.

New Zealand, Tasmania, etc were beyond Japan's logistic reach. Don't believe what some sources say about Japan cutting off Australia - it would have never happened.

There wasn't much opportunity to use a large Japanese army in the Pacific war. If Japan had made peace in China, they would have had a large army that had nothing else to do. Maybe they could have invaded Siberia, but China was probably more profitable for Japan.

Chiang's wife speaking English is poor grounds for Chinese policy, Chiang spoke Russian and Japanese, and his son was in the Wehrmacht at the time of the invasion of Czechoslovakia, so what?

Between 1937 and 1940 (the relevant time in this timeline) Stalin provided much more weapons, planes, pilots, etc, than the US. The US did extremely little for China, even in 1941, when Britain was sucking up L-L billions, China had to pay a fortune for American planes and mercenaries, the flying tigers and for other goods. Incredibly, Britain received 31 billion (mostly wasted blowing up houses in Germany and farting around for years in North AFrica against a couple of German divisions). In contrast, Russia fighting over a 100 divisions received 12 billion and China less than 4 (fighting a lot more Japanese troops than the few marines and army in the Pacific and most of that was flown from India at great cost starting in late 1943 and part received by the Communists through the USSR. 1937-1940 Roosevelt was doing practically nothing for China. He did not even embargo oil and scrap iron until Indochina was invaded (not over China being invaded!). The Japanese bought the license from Hamilton-Standard to build the 4 blade propeller for the G4M during this time!

ruthenium December 12th, 2017 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scaeva (Post 2868298)
Does Japan have a much larger navy in this scenario than it did historically? China and Thailand had practically nothing to contribute to a naval war, meaning even in this alternate scenario victory or defeat hinges entirely on the fortunes of the Imperial Japanese Navy. It's still going to be a conflict whose outcome is determined in large measure by naval battles between United States and Japan, and that's a conflict that the U.S. won historically.

Even in a scenario where China is allied with Japan against the United States (a far-fetched one, bordering on fantasy), the war has the same outcome. China may have had millions of men but they were useless in a naval war. Who controls the sea and the skies above them is going to determine who wins the Pacific War, just as it did historically.

The IJN was formidable in 1940-41, much more so than the combined RN Far East fleet, the USN Pacific fleet and the Duth navy in the Pacific. Thailand had a tiny navy and China none. However in this Scenario the IJN wiped out only the RN and Dutch navy at the beginningm which it can easily do, so Stages I and II are perfectly feasible with existing OTL resources and controlling from SOuth Africa to New Caledonia and unlimited oil, chormium, Indian labor, etc, the axis is simply invincible for Britain, so it has to join it.

Chlodio December 12th, 2017 08:59 AM

I still can't see China allying with Japan.

ruthenium December 12th, 2017 10:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chlodio (Post 2868266)

New Zealand, Tasmania, etc were beyond Japan's logistic reach. Don't believe what some sources say about Japan cutting off Australia - it would have never happened.

There wasn't much opportunity to use a large Japanese army in the Pacific war. If Japan had made peace in China, they would have had a large army that had nothing else to do. Maybe they could have invaded Siberia, but China was probably more profitable for Japan.

Without an opposing navy weak South Africa, Tasmania and New Zealand are easy for for Japan to invade and supply and invaluable as front bases.

Somehow, everybody missed India's independence and joining the axis, which causes Iran and Iraq to collapse to the axis.

The loss of South Africa denies the Indian Ocean to Britain, so when Rommel strikes and German planes close the Med to the RN, British forces in Egypt and Tobruk cannot be supplied and reinforced around South Africa (no Australian, Indian, NZ or South African troops arrive in Egypt, nor Lee tanks, artillery, etc,) and Rommel advances rapidly. Egypt falls, Britain is kicked out of the Med, so Turkey has to join the axis (which is in Bulgaria, Egypt, Irak and Iran.

U-boats are resupplying in South Africa and causing great damage to British shipping in Venezuela, etc,

So Britain is in deep trouble and near capitulation or joining the axis to avoid capitulation.

The axis needs a huge army for Stage III.


On 31 May, 1941. The Japanese ambassador asks for a one to one meeting with Hitler. He informs Hitler that the US, Canada and Mexico are much richer and much weaker than the USSR and that the Asian axis will invade them On 4 July, 1941, which will prevent the US from providing L-L aid for Britain and eventually ghe USSR (if Germany invades it). However, for the invasion to be successful, it is imperative that Germany declare war on the US in Late June (on the grounds of breaking neutrality by providing USN escort fort British cconvoys) and start sinking US ships along the eastern seabord and the Gulf of Mexico, in order to force the US to concentrate on defending the Atlantic.

Moreover, Japan will sell immediately 25 submarines and 2,500 rootpedoes, shells, etc, to the KM and deduce 3 million marks for the German debt for fuel, etc, for every USN CV sunk, 2 million for every BB or CA, 1 million ofr every Cl and a half million for every submarine or DD sunk and buy all captured ships and cargo delivered in Tehuantepec (after it is invaded9, where U-boats can resupply to wreak havoc on the Gulf and eastern seabord. Japan will also pay for 30 experienced U-boat officers to sail on a mission at a time a totla of 3 times, in order to train IJN crews and show the tactics and procedures.

In return for German declaration of war on the US, Japan, China and India will invade the USSR within a week of German invasion.

Hitler has benefitted greatly from Japanese advances and Hitler knows that if Stalin is attacked on 2 fronts, he will lose rapidly, so he agrees to declare war and attack US ships on 22 June, 1941.

Roosevelt has made the huge mistake of deploying all the BB and most of the capital ships to PH, where they can be bottled up by submarines in the deep water just outside the harbor. The USN in San Diego, Bellingham, San Pedro, S.F., etc, is quite weak and air defenses rather weak and inefficient (no radar-fighter scrambling coordination, etc,).


On 4 July:
1) 2 Japanese, 2 Chinese and 2 Indian divisions land in Vancover and Vancouver Island to advance rapidly to Seattle, eastward along the Transcontinental Canadian RR, S toward Portland and SE toward invaluable Grand Coulee and the Dalles dams and aluminum plant.

2) an equal force lands in Tijuana and advances to San Diego and then to L. A.

3) An equal force lands in San Pedro (L. A.) and advances to L. A. Hoover dam, the oilfields, San Francisco and Sand Diego.

4) An equal force lands in San Francisco and advanced to Sacramento and Donner Pass, L- A. and Portland.

5) a division from each of the 3 countries lands in Acapulco in advances to Mexico City and Puebla, which are to be bombed and shelled as soon as possible to induce extremely weak Mexico to join the axis.

6) A Japanese division lands in Tehuantepec to seize the RR and take the Gulf terminal on the same day (riding on captured trains). Then to use seized ships to invade Veracruz, the main Mexican port, close to the oilfields, to induce Mexico to join the axis.

7) Japanese planes from formosa will wipe out US planes, ships, depots, etc, in the PI, isolating MacArthur's large force in Luzon (self-feeding prisoners). Once US planes are wiped out, small forces will land in undefended Mindoro and Palawan to build airfields and submarine bases to blockade the Americans in Luzon.

8) 30 IJN submarines will sink all ships patrolling off PH and sink all ships leaving or approaching PH and Honolulu, with special enphasis on CV.

9) A Japanese division will seize Valparaiso to induce Chile to join the axis, denying the eastern south Pacific to the USN.

10) Special forces from the 3 countries attack Panama. A large part is hidden in cargo and passenger ships sailing across Panama.

11) Almost all the IJN will deploy in the Pacific Americas.

12) small forcse will land in Attu, Dutch Harbor, Anchorage, Juneau and White Horse, so that G3M, G4M, etc, can fly from the Ryu Kyus to Vancouver

12) Infiltrated forces posing as tourists, diplomats, merchant sailors, etc, will already be on shore to seize the crucial Boeing, Lockheed, Catalina and other factories and key personnel (designers, etc,), the power and aluminum plants in the dams.

ruthenium December 12th, 2017 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chlodio (Post 2870241)
I still can't see China allying with Japan.

in late 1940 China had suffered terrible losses (men, civilians, territory and equipment), had no airforce, munitions, a tiny armament and munitions industry and Britain had closed down the Burma road for 3 months, under Japanese threat (which China had built by hand at great cost, as its only hope).
The Communists and warlords were growing stronger (some warlords being Japanese allies).

If offered help to unify China, half the lost territory and a mighty alliance to seize invaluable lands, greedy Chiang would have jumped at the opportunity.

You seem to think that he was allied to the US, he was definitely more allied to the USSR than to the US and only out of desperation, sinece Stalin had invaded gratuitously Xin Jiang (despite signng a non aggression pact with China).

Before the Japanese invasion, Germany had built the Chinese RR and arms industry (Chiangs troops wore German helmets and used Mausers, 37 mm At guns, etc, to defeat the Japanese in Chiang SHa in January 1942. The US had been more harmful than helpful. Roosevelts personal fortune was in great part due to his maternal family's income from opium trade in China.

Chlodio December 12th, 2017 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ruthenium (Post 2870265)
in late 1940 China had suffered terrible losses (men, civilians, territory and equipment), ... The Communists and warlords were growing stronger (some warlords being Japanese allies).

Which are all reasons for Chiang to not ally with Japan since Japan had caused all of these problems.

It doesn't matter who Chiang was allied to. My point was, and is, that Chiang would not ally with Japan. Chiang was far more interested in regaining all of China than in regaining part of China plus a few bits and pieces elsewhere that he could have never held onto without Japanese help. I sincerely doubt Chiang would have ever trusted Japan as an ally no matter how much territory Japan promised. Chiang would have been a fool to give Japan the use of Chinese troops to capture territories that Japan had no intention of sharing with China.

If no one ever opposes Japanese expansion, then yes, Japan might keep on expanding forever, but at some point, even without Pearl Harbor, the US and other Pacific powers were going to step in and say 'No more.' Japan only attacked Pearl Harbor because they wanted to expand and believed the US would actively oppose them, ie, declare war.


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