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Old April 16th, 2018, 08:46 AM   #1

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Fate of Serbia if Central Powers Won WWI


What would have happened to Serbia if the Central Powers (Austria-Hungary especially) won the first world war? Some propaganda said they used the assassination as an excuse to try and annex them but is that really what they planned? Adding millions of more angry Serbs to their empire seems utterly foolish.
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Old April 16th, 2018, 09:04 AM   #2
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Serbia would have been fair bit smaller. Bulgaria went into to war to reclaim some land they perceived that Serbs had stolen. As to the rest... I would guess that instead of dual monarchy the Austria-Hungary would turn either turn into a very fragile triple monarchy (i.e. yielding southern slavs their own state within the empire) or turn into a federation of sorts (kinda like returning to the HRE). The latter option would be even more likely if Polish and/or Ukrainian lands would be included to the Austria-Hungary.
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Old April 16th, 2018, 09:14 AM   #3
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Annexation couldn't have really happened because of what OP said. That being said Serbia's WWI losses were so bad(worse per population percentage than the Soviets in WWII) that the Serbs wouldn't have been much of a threat going forward and by threat I mean in a resistance context. The war with Serbia had been for revenge not for annexation and seeing Serbia's fanatical defense of their country that resulted in WWII Eastern front level casualties(as a percentage of Serbia's population) and the death of hundreds of thousands of Hapsburg soldiers they'd have even more reason for revenge.

Serbia was now down to about 3 million people after WWI and if you give a good chunk of the country to Bulgaria and Albania, the annexation of Serbia seems a whole lot more manageable. One thing is for sure, Serbia's ambitions for a Pan Slavic state would have ended. I do think Bohemia is a more likely triple monarchy contender. Croats had been ruled by Hungarians for a millenium and didn't need to be appeased, Croats and Hungarians were parts of Hungary, Bosnians and Serbs were the problems for the Hapsburgs as far as South Slavs are concerned and while Bohemia had been a Hapsburg territory since the 1500s, the contention over the South Slavs had only started in the late 19th century when the Austrians expanded their reach into Bosnia and got Albania created.
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Old April 16th, 2018, 11:13 AM   #4

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Originally Posted by Vaeltaja View Post
Serbia would have been fair bit smaller. Bulgaria went into to war to reclaim some land they perceived that Serbs had stolen. As to the rest... I would guess that instead of dual monarchy the Austria-Hungary would turn either turn into a very fragile triple monarchy (i.e. yielding southern slavs their own state within the empire) or turn into a federation of sorts (kinda like returning to the HRE). The latter option would be even more likely if Polish and/or Ukrainian lands would be included to the Austria-Hungary.
Trialism in Austria Hungary didn't focus on the creation of a South Slavic state, but a Croatian one. And most ardent supporters of Trialism in Croatia were the same people with clear anti-Serbian tendencies. Serbia would probably have become a vassal kingdom, probably with a new dynasty.
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Old April 16th, 2018, 11:56 AM   #5

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Trialism in Austria Hungary didn't focus on the creation of a South Slavic state, but a Croatian one. And most ardent supporters of Trialism in Croatia were the same people with clear anti-Serbian tendencies. Serbia would probably have become a vassal kingdom, probably with a new dynasty.
Was this Croatian state going to include Slovenia and the Croatian-majority parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
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Old April 16th, 2018, 08:09 PM   #6

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Was this Croatian state going to include Slovenia and the Croatian-majority parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Probably. It wouldn't be a fun time for non-Croats though.
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Old April 16th, 2018, 10:09 PM   #7

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Originally Posted by Vaeltaja View Post
Serbia would have been fair bit smaller. Bulgaria went into to war to reclaim some land they perceived that Serbs had stolen. As to the rest... I would guess that instead of dual monarchy the Austria-Hungary would turn either turn into a very fragile triple monarchy (i.e. yielding southern slavs their own state within the empire) or turn into a federation of sorts (kinda like returning to the HRE). The latter option would be even more likely if Polish and/or Ukrainian lands would be included to the Austria-Hungary.
That wud hv been something like a scaled-down version of Soviet Union.
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Old April 16th, 2018, 11:10 PM   #8
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That wud hv been something like a scaled-down version of Soviet Union.
It would really depend on how the new government would be structured. It could be loose federation style. I mean if the 'imperial government' would take more to the role of a referee rather than that of a ruling iron fist. Or it could be something else. Regardless the analogy with the Soviet Union doesn't really work since there would not be a single dominant group or state in such a potential state.



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Trialism in Austria Hungary didn't focus on the creation of a South Slavic state, but a Croatian one. And most ardent supporters of Trialism in Croatia were the same people with clear anti-Serbian tendencies. Serbia would probably have become a vassal kingdom, probably with a new dynasty.
Maybe. My point about the federation style structure was basically just a note that in the proposed case the diversity of the empire would become too divisive to be centrally run without upsetting every one in the process. It was already on the road towards that (being too divided) prior to the WW I.

Last edited by Vaeltaja; April 16th, 2018 at 11:14 PM.
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Old April 17th, 2018, 05:23 AM   #9

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It was on a road towards the creating of Austria-Hungary-Croatia. Other Slavs like Czechs, Slovaks or Serbs weren't a part of the plan.
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Old April 17th, 2018, 07:32 AM   #10

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It was on a road towards the creating of Austria-Hungary-Croatia. Other Slavs like Czechs, Slovaks or Serbs weren't a part of the plan.
You have to wonder whether the Galician Polish nobility maintained an effort to keep the Czechs on the outside. It was a terribly short-sided vision to exclude the Czechs.
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