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Old April 16th, 2018, 11:53 AM   #1

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What would a break-up of Austria-Hungary look like in a CP victory world?


I have heard Kotromanic previously say somewhere on this forum that Austria-Hungary would have still broken up if the Central Powers had won World War I if the war would have lasted to 1917 or beyond.

Thus, I am curious as to what a break-up of Austria-Hungary would look like in a scenario where the Central Powers win World War I (for instance, due to no U.S. entry into the war and thus in the Entente being put in a much worse financial situation which forces them to recognize German territorial gains in the East).

What I'm thinking of is this:

-Hungary breaks off from Austria-Hungary but remains united. However, Croatia would have to get genuine autonomy.
-Bukovina is partitioned between Romania (which gets the southern part) and Ukraine (which gets the northern part).
-Galicia is partitioned between Poland (which gets the western part) and Ukraine (which gets the eastern part).
-Czechia (excluding the Sudetenland) becomes nominally independent but is essentially a German satellite state.
-German Austria (including South Tyrol) and the Sudetenland are outright annexed by Germany.
-Slovenia is outright annexed by Germany.
-Italy gets the (Italian-majority) Trentino if it promises to join Germany's Mitteleuropa customs union. If not, then Germany gets the Trentino.
-Bosnia and Herzegovina's fate depends on what happens to Serbia. Indeed, perhaps a deal can be reached where Serbia acquires Bosnia and Herzegovina in exchange for joining Germany's Mitteleuropa customs union.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
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Old April 16th, 2018, 02:25 PM   #2

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I believe I heard that the Hapsburgs were planning to redistrict the country into a federation of numerous supposedly equal territories with the monarchy ruling over all of it. Not entirely sure what said territories would be though. Although this would eventually fail, just a question of how and when.
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Old April 16th, 2018, 06:25 PM   #3
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The empire wouldn't have broken up. Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia had all been part ofHungary and Austria for centuries to a millennia respectively. Bohemia could be appeased with a triple monarchy but Bohemia had been against the Hapsburgs since the Thirty Years War, which started with Bohemians tossing Hapsburg reps out the window, so that situation had been kept under wraps successfully for a long time.

Biggest issues besides that are on the fringes, Translvania was and is an inherent demographic mess and it's not possible to properly divide that land between Romania and Hungary, makes a two state solution look easy by comparison in the Middle East. So what's left? Bosnia which had caused the problem in the Balkans and maybe the Poles, who I think would only be a problem if there was an independent Poland, Poles had been in the Hapsburg Empire for like 150 years at this point, they were also Catholic and the empire was Catholic opposed to the other empires with Poles living in them(Protestant Prussia and Orthodox Russia).

So a "breakup" would probably not be a breakup but rather the empire shedding territory and peoples who didn't want to be ruled by the empire.
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Old April 17th, 2018, 01:37 AM   #4
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There probably wouldn't have been a break-up. Austria-Hungary would bee seen like the UK is seen today.
That said, the assassination of Sophie and Franz-Ferdinand, made a break-up MUCH more likely. If Franz-Ferdinand had ascended to the throne and implemented his reforms, Austria-Hungary almost surely would be still around.

In the case Austria-Hungary would break-up and there had been fair and free referendums, this part of the world would approximately looked like this:

-Hungary independent: Central Hungary, Northern Hungary, Northern Great Plain (incl. the part which is now in Ukraine), Southern Great Plain, Banat, Transylvania, Pannonia and eastern Burgenland
-Slovenia independent: Carniola, parts of Kuestenland, parts of Styria, Prekmurje and maybe parts of Carinthia
-Czechia independent: Bohemia and Moravia
-Slovakia independent: Slovakia (incl. parts in todays Ukraine)
-Maybe those two would form Czechoslovakia or a personal union
-Croatia independent: Croatia, Slavonia, Syrmia, Dalmatia (including the little part in todays Bosnia and Herzegovina) and maybe parts of Kuestenland
-western Galicia would join Poland
-eastern Galicia and Bukowina would join Ukraine
-Trentino would be either independent or join Italy
-Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg, Austria, austrian Silesia, Carinthia, parts of Styria and western Burgenland would vote to join Germany
-Crisana would either be part of Romania or Hungary
-I could see Maramaros becoming part of Hungary, Ukraine or Romania
-Bosnia would be split between Serbia and Croatia or form an unstable country with potential for the next balkan war in the future
-The same with Herzegovina
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Old April 19th, 2018, 03:43 AM   #5

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist View Post
I have heard Kotromanic previously say somewhere on this forum that Austria-Hungary would have still broken up if the Central Powers had won World War I if the war would have lasted to 1917 or beyond.

Thus, I am curious as to what a break-up of Austria-Hungary would look like in a scenario where the Central Powers win World War I (for instance, due to no U.S. entry into the war and thus in the Entente being put in a much worse financial situation which forces them to recognize German territorial gains in the East).

What I'm thinking of is this:

-Hungary breaks off from Austria-Hungary but remains united. However, Croatia would have to get genuine autonomy.
-Bukovina is partitioned between Romania (which gets the southern part) and Ukraine (which gets the northern part).
-Galicia is partitioned between Poland (which gets the western part) and Ukraine (which gets the eastern part).
-Czechia (excluding the Sudetenland) becomes nominally independent but is essentially a German satellite state.
-German Austria (including South Tyrol) and the Sudetenland are outright annexed by Germany.
-Slovenia is outright annexed by Germany.
-Italy gets the (Italian-majority) Trentino if it promises to join Germany's Mitteleuropa customs union. If not, then Germany gets the Trentino.
-Bosnia and Herzegovina's fate depends on what happens to Serbia. Indeed, perhaps a deal can be reached where Serbia acquires Bosnia and Herzegovina in exchange for joining Germany's Mitteleuropa customs union.

Anyway, any thoughts on this?
There's no way Germany would annexate Austria and Slovenia in this historical context. Austria would remain a separate country and include the Czech and Slovenian lands, except for Prekmurje. Dalmatia and Bosnia-Herzgovina would be attached to Croatia within Hungary. What happens to Bukovina really depends on the fate of Romania. Everything else seems plausible.

The most interesting issue for me would be Burgenland. Under what circumstances - if any - would Hungary be willing to cede it to Austria in the event of a Central Power victory?
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