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Old May 15th, 2018, 08:08 PM   #1

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In a no-WWII world, could Poland be one of the first nuclear powers?


In a scenario where Adolf Hitler gets killed in 1923 and World War II is avoided, could Poland be one of the first countries which will successfully build nuclear weapons?

After all, even if Germany and the Soviet Union won't dare to actually go to war against Poland, they would still pose a potential threat to Poland. Thus, Poland could be strongly encouraged to build nuclear weapons as a guarantee of its security. Poland would have access to French--and possibly other--loans and would also have many intelligent people who could help Poland with this effort.

Anyway, is what I wrote here realistic? After all, Poland appears to have been one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe even without World War II and it would also probably have the capacity to eventually build nuclear weapons.

Thoughts on this?
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Old May 15th, 2018, 08:46 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Futurist View Post
In a scenario where Adolf Hitler gets killed in 1923 and World War II is avoided, could Poland be one of the first countries which will successfully build nuclear weapons?

After all, even if Germany and the Soviet Union won't dare to actually go to war against Poland, they would still pose a potential threat to Poland. Thus, Poland could be strongly encouraged to build nuclear weapons as a guarantee of its security. Poland would have access to French--and possibly other--loans and would also have many intelligent people who could help Poland with this effort.

Anyway, is what I wrote here realistic? After all, Poland appears to have been one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe even without World War II and it would also probably have the capacity to eventually build nuclear weapons.

Thoughts on this?
No. Poland would simply not have the resources to build nuclear weapons. The Manhattan project was a mammoth undertaking.
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Old May 15th, 2018, 08:57 PM   #3
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If World War II is avoided, would there even be a reason for Project Manhattan to be undertaken? Would there even be a motive to research and invent the atomic bomb?
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Old May 15th, 2018, 09:06 PM   #4

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Originally Posted by cpvjqpa View Post
If World War II is avoided, would there even be a reason for Project Manhattan to be undertaken? Would there even be a motive to research and invent the atomic bomb?
Various countries might have very well still desired nuclear weapons for security reasons. For instance, think of France, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, and the Soviet Union.
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Old May 15th, 2018, 09:07 PM   #5

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No. Poland would simply not have the resources to build nuclear weapons. The Manhattan project was a mammoth undertaking.
After the U.S., though, the Soviet Union, Britain, France, China, Israel, India, South Africa, Pakistan, and North Korea managed to successfully build nuclear weapons in real life.
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Old May 15th, 2018, 10:01 PM   #6
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After the U.S., though, the Soviet Union, Britain, France, China, Israel, India, South Africa, Pakistan, and North Korea managed to successfully build nuclear weapons in real life.
the first time is much harder before the way is known.
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Old May 15th, 2018, 10:26 PM   #7

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the first time is much harder before the way is known.
I didn't say that Poland would have to be the first country to do this, though--only that it be one of the first.
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Old May 16th, 2018, 04:43 AM   #8

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Where would Poland have tested them? And was Poland rich enough, or had the resources, to do so?

I can understand it had the reasons to, but the resources, I doubt. I could be wrong though.

North Korea, Pakistan, and India, are not rich countries. However, they had the scientific know-how,and could get the proper uranium to make bombs. Poland used cavalry in the beginning of the war. If they couldn't even use tanks, when none of the other participants whether Allies or Axis used cavalry, then developing a nuke is moot.

If there were no WWII in the same way, I think the British, Americans, and Soviets, would all have produced them.
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Old May 16th, 2018, 06:29 AM   #9

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…. Poland used cavalry in the beginning of the war. If they couldn't even use tanks, when none of the other participants whether Allies or Axis used cavalry, then developing a nuke is moot.
….
That's a bit of a stereotype. If they used cavalry, it wasn't because of a sort of an abysmal backwardness that made Polish army unable to use thanks.

And it's also a bit false. Cavalry was used in WWII by others.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horses_in_World_War_II

Last edited by deaf tuner; May 16th, 2018 at 06:33 AM.
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Old May 16th, 2018, 08:31 AM   #10

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Where would Poland have tested them?
Perhaps in French Algeria, with France's consent?

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And was Poland rich enough, or had the resources, to do so?
I'm not sure about in the 1930s, but eventually, I don't see why not. After all, I would think that countries such as Italy and Spain would currently be able to build nuclear weapons if they desired to do so.

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I can understand it had the reasons to, but the resources, I doubt. I could be wrong though.
If I recall correctly, Poland's development trajectory before World War II was similar to that of, say, Italy or Spain. Thus, if these two countries would develop the potential to build nuclear weapons, so would Poland.

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North Korea, Pakistan, and India, are not rich countries. However, they had the scientific know-how,and could get the proper uranium to make bombs.
Are you suggesting that Poles lacked scientific know-how? Indeed, didn't Polish cryptographers help crack the Nazi enigma code?

Also, Poland could get uranium from French Niger.

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Poland used cavalry in the beginning of the war. If they couldn't even use tanks, when none of the other participants whether Allies or Axis used cavalry, then developing a nuke is moot.
Please see deaf tuner's response in regards to this.

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If there were no WWII in the same way, I think the British, Americans, and Soviets, would all have produced them.
What about the French? And the Italians? And the Japanese? And the Chinese?
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