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Old May 25th, 2018, 10:49 PM   #1

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How much larger would Cuba's population be if the US annexed it in the 19th century?


How much larger would Cuba's population be if the U.S. annexed it sometime in the 19th century?

In this scenario, would Cuba have experienced an extremely massive population boom in the 20th and 21st centuries just like Florida did in real life?

Also, would Florida have had a smaller population in this scenario due to Cuba diverting some of its potential residents?

Anyway, any thoughts on all of this?
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Old May 26th, 2018, 01:14 AM   #2
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i'm not sure why would it be larger, maybe it would be smaller. the most obvious analogy would be to compare it to Puerto Rico which was indeed annexed by the US at the end of the 19th century:

Puerto Rico's population was 953,243 in 1899 and 3,725,789 in 2010.

Cuba had 1,572,797 people in 1899 and 11,167,325 in 2012.

i don't know the reasons behind it, but interesting why was the population growth so smaller in Puerto Rico, did it have something to do with the US? Immigration to the mainland, or what? (the population of Haiti and Dominican Republic grew in an even faster rate than Cuba in the 20th century)
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Old May 26th, 2018, 04:10 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Tulun View Post
i'm not sure why would it be larger, maybe it would be smaller. the most obvious analogy would be to compare it to Puerto Rico which was indeed annexed by the US at the end of the 19th century:

Puerto Rico's population was 953,243 in 1899 and 3,725,789 in 2010.

Cuba had 1,572,797 people in 1899 and 11,167,325 in 2012.

i don't know the reasons behind it, but interesting why was the population growth so smaller in Puerto Rico, did it have something to do with the US? Immigration to the mainland, or what? (the population of Haiti and Dominican Republic grew in an even faster rate than Cuba in the 20th century)
Puerto Rico is much smaller than Cuba, Puerto Rico is only 3,500 square miles Cuba is about 42,000. Deleware and Rhode Island are the only United States that are smaller and they have about a million people each. Puerto Rico has a denser population than any US state except New Jersey. Puerto Rico simply doesn't have the space for many more people and it's citizens have the option to go to the US mainland as part of being part of the US and many take that option.
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Old May 26th, 2018, 06:05 AM   #4

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Futurist View Post
How much larger would Cuba's population be if the U.S. annexed it sometime in the 19th century?

In this scenario, would Cuba have experienced an extremely massive population boom in the 20th and 21st centuries just like Florida did in real life?

Also, would Florida have had a smaller population in this scenario due to Cuba diverting some of its potential residents?

Anyway, any thoughts on all of this?
It is a fun speculation here.

Did you have a time period in mind ("exactly") during which the U.K. would have supported, or been neutral towards, a purchase from the Spanish?

My feeling (just from reading about Grant's Presidency) has been that the U.K. would have sought trade sanctions as a minimum response.


and.. last musing... WHAT would Martin say if he were active! ha!
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Old May 26th, 2018, 12:24 PM   #5

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It is a fun speculation here.

Did you have a time period in mind ("exactly") during which the U.K. would have supported, or been neutral towards, a purchase from the Spanish?

My feeling (just from reading about Grant's Presidency) has been that the U.K. would have sought trade sanctions as a minimum response.

and.. last musing... WHAT would Martin say if he were active! ha!
What about a scenario where the Teller Amendment narrowly fails to pass the U.S. Senate in 1898?
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Old May 26th, 2018, 12:24 PM   #6

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Originally Posted by Tulun View Post
i'm not sure why would it be larger, maybe it would be smaller. the most obvious analogy would be to compare it to Puerto Rico which was indeed annexed by the US at the end of the 19th century:

Puerto Rico's population was 953,243 in 1899 and 3,725,789 in 2010.

Cuba had 1,572,797 people in 1899 and 11,167,325 in 2012.

i don't know the reasons behind it, but interesting why was the population growth so smaller in Puerto Rico, did it have something to do with the US? Immigration to the mainland, or what? (the population of Haiti and Dominican Republic grew in an even faster rate than Cuba in the 20th century)
Puerto Rico is not a U.S. state (while Cuba might eventually become a U.S. state in this scenario) and also has much less territory (in terms of its area) than Cuba has.
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Old May 26th, 2018, 12:27 PM   #7

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Puerto Rico is much smaller than Cuba, Puerto Rico is only 3,500 square miles Cuba is about 42,000. Deleware and Rhode Island are the only United States that are smaller and they have about a million people each. Puerto Rico has a denser population than any US state except New Jersey. Puerto Rico simply doesn't have the space for many more people and it's citizens have the option to go to the US mainland as part of being part of the US and many take that option.
Agreed with all of this and it is also worth noting that, in this scenario, Cuba might eventually become a U.S. state (whereas Puerto Rico is not a U.S. state).

Also, it would be interesting to see how many Cubans will move to the interior of the U.S. in this scenario and to compare this number to the number of people from the continental U.S. who will move to Cuba in this scenario. In regards to Florida, while there might have very well been some African-American migration out of Florida during the Great Migration, it was more than compensated by the influx of people to Florida from other parts of the United States (as well as from abroad, such as from Haiti, Cuba, Puerto Rico, and other parts of Latin America).
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Old June 9th, 2018, 03:15 PM   #8

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In countries where poverty reins supreme, the population surges to large families because parents fear not being taken care of in old age.
Today Cubans maybe poor but they are not destitute. They have health care, security and basic food.
Was Cuba like that when is was run by Fulgencio Batista?
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Old June 10th, 2018, 03:02 PM   #9

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In countries where poverty reins supreme, the population surges to large families because parents fear not being taken care of in old age.
Today Cubans maybe poor but they are not destitute. They have health care, security and basic food.
Was Cuba like that when is was run by Fulgencio Batista?
Why should Castro's Cuba be compared to Batista's Cuba? Why not compare Castro's Cuba to a Cuba which is a part of the U.S. or at least a U.S. territory like Puerto Rico is?
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Old June 10th, 2018, 03:22 PM   #10

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Why should Castro's Cuba be compared to Batista's Cuba? Why not compare Castro's Cuba to a Cuba which is a part of the U.S. or at least a U.S. territory like Puerto Rico is?
This discussion makes no sense without talking about immigration. Every region discussed in this thread, including Cuba and Puerto Rico, has had a fertility rate below that required for replacement for decades. In Cuba it started in the 1970s, in Puerto Rico it started in the 1980s. The native population of Cuba would be falling today regardless of whether the US had annexed it in the past or not. Immigration is the key determiner of population growth in this part of the world so you should be looking at their immigration policies.

Last edited by Dan Howard; June 10th, 2018 at 03:36 PM.
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