Historum - History Forums  

Go Back   Historum - History Forums > Themes in History > Speculative History
Register Forums Blogs Social Groups Mark Forums Read

Speculative History Speculative History Forum - Alternate History, What If Questions, Pseudo History, and anything outside the boundaries of mainstream historical research


Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
Old October 30th, 2012, 08:33 AM   #251

antonina's Avatar
Historian
 
Joined: Mar 2011
From: Warsaw, Poland
Posts: 5,678

There's one thing I just don't get: how did it come about Americans are now racking their brains over the OP question?

Thirty years ago the problem was non-existent. In thirty years China's position rocketed from hopelessly weak to second world power with greatest currency reserves, the world's 1st exporter, 2nd importer, 2nd contributor for science magazines and USA's chief creditor. The Chinese government are reaching out, this time they won't destroy their fleet like they did in 16th century.

All this stricly thanks to the USA (not to mention the Chinese people's ingenuity and hard work)

One is sincerely glad for the Chinese who really deserve some luck after the Maoist nightmare. And 350 million new consumers of luxury goods aren't to be sneezed at. But there's one snag (if snag it be, which is of course open to discussion): what we're currently witnessing is a gradual but irrevocable shift of global power from the West (USA and Europe) to the East: China, the Arab states, Russia, and (in a longer perspective) India and Brasil.

Over 60 years ago it was nobody else but America that helped USSR become a global menace (which it subsequently combated with tons of rhethoric, dollars, blood of its soldiers and arms supplies).

One can, of course, stick to the belief that economic interdependence will guarantee an era of harmonius global cooperation, but I've got my doubts.

So why do everything in one's power to strengthen one's rival? Or is there some profound political thought to this that I fail to notice?
antonina is offline  
Remove Ads
Old October 30th, 2012, 10:49 AM   #252
Suspended indefinitely
 
Joined: Sep 2012
From: varanasi uttar pradesh, india
Posts: 1,610

Well, this has always been the case in history.

The Song dynasty first called Jins to destroy the Liao as their tactic was to play one barbarian against another and that succeded.

The Jurchens threw off Liao and in turn threatened Songs themselves and had it not been for tenacious fight offered by Songs, they would have conquered China.

anyway, they became a rival to Song in their own nation.

sometime later than this, in 1220's a new barbarian comes - mongols and Songs again allied with them to bring down Jins.

the jins were crushed and this time the songs could not save themselves from Mongols even after putting a great fight( they resisted for 45 years where others crumbled in weeks or months) and were destroyed by them.


as you rightly mentioned it was US that helped USSR and then used its resources against the same because it thought that USSR could envelop whole world.

to contain this USSR, USA became friend of Mao who had called upon encirclement of North America.

the new Jins played well against liaos ( USSR) and now are threatening USA in terms of security equations.

but our uncle Sam has a plan and that is to woo Putin and allow Russian bear to contain dragon.

we do not know how this will work exactly but both of us come from nations largely dependent on outcome of this classic tactic of playing one 'barbarian against another'.
avantivarman is offline  
Old October 30th, 2012, 11:15 AM   #253

antonina's Avatar
Historian
 
Joined: Mar 2011
From: Warsaw, Poland
Posts: 5,678

Quote:
Originally Posted by avantivarman View Post
Well, this has always been the case in history.

The Song dynasty first called Jins to destroy the Liao as their tactic was to play one barbarian against another and that succeded.

The Jurchens threw off Liao and in turn threatened Songs themselves and had it not been for tenacious fight offered by Songs, they would have conquered China.

anyway, they became a rival to Song in their own nation.

sometime later than this, in 1220's a new barbarian comes - mongols and Songs again allied with them to bring down Jins.

the jins were crushed and this time the songs could not save themselves from Mongols even after putting a great fight( they resisted for 45 years where others crumbled in weeks or months) and were destroyed by them.
I love the long perspective ancient cultures like yours have. Nothing new under the sun, eh?

Quote:
Originally Posted by avantivarman View Post
as you rightly mentioned it was US that helped USSR and then used its resources against the same because it thought that USSR could envelop whole world.

to contain this USSR, USA became friend of Mao who had called upon encirclement of North America.

the new Jins played well against liaos ( USSR) and now are threatening USA in terms of security equations.
And all one can do is sit - you under a mango and me under an apple tree - and watch the world go by. In a mad world gardening and philosophy remain the only worthwhile pasttimes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by avantivarman View Post
but our uncle Sam has a plan and that is to woo Putin and allow Russian bear to contain dragon.
Exactly - encore. Russia is still weak, but US and Europe are doing their utmost to fortify it. It's extremely doubtful if Russian society wil be able to repeat the success of the Chinese, but streams of petrodollars will certainly be pumped into the army. And so it goes on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by avantivarman View Post
we do not know how this will work exactly but both of us come from nations largely dependent on outcome of this classic tactic of playing one 'barbarian against another'.
It was a pleasure reading your answer Avantivarman, I share your thoughts on everything but "barbarians". World War II cured Eastern Europe of classifying nations as barbarians and non-barbarians, we're all potential barbarians I'm afraid.
antonina is offline  
Old October 30th, 2012, 12:03 PM   #254
Suspended indefinitely
 
Joined: Sep 2012
From: varanasi uttar pradesh, india
Posts: 1,610

Quote:
Originally Posted by antonina View Post
I love the long perspective ancient cultures like yours have. Nothing new under the sun, eh?



And all one can do is sit - you under a mango and me under an apple tree - and watch the world go by. In a mad world gardening and philosophy remain the only worthwhile pasttimes.



Exactly - encore. Russia is still weak, but US and Europe are doing their utmost to fortify it. It's extremely doubtful if Russian society wil be able to repeat the success of the Chinese, but streams of petrodollars will certainly be pumped into the army. And so it goes on.



It was a pleasure reading your answer Avantivarman, I share your thoughts on everything but "barbarians". World War II cured Eastern Europe of classifying nations as barbarians and non-barbarians, we're all potential barbarians I'm afraid.
I did not mean any nation by barbarians but thought process where we call others such names to suit us.

when usa contained ussr it used similar words as if chinese under mao were better than russians.

today also, after ignoring some gross massacres, US has started caring for human rights so I used that word barbarian.

my english is to blamed for this.

I am no supporter of any type of colonialism or calling people barbarians.
avantivarman is offline  
Old November 4th, 2012, 12:53 PM   #255
Historian
 
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,034

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord_of_Gauda View Post
Correct. Especially if that somebody happens to be a grocery store owner from Kentucky.

In any case, your analogy is false and a strawman. The issue is of loyalty, not of terrorism or murder. No American is *EVER* going to get a visit from the CIA if they kept saying that Washington state should be inependent or join Canada. Likewise applies to most democratic nations and their free media.



Nothing more than propaganda that seeks to put Chinese despotism in fairer light. The issue is, nobody in India or America is going to get jailed, beaten or their families threatened if they said they seek independence from India. Unfortunately, that is exactly what China does and therefore, Chinese position is not credible, while i will consider the Indian position on AP credible, fair and semi-officially proven. As such, it is fairly categoric to say that almost all semi-official polling shows over 90% of AP folks want to stay a part of India and want nothign to do with China. This, IMO, overrides Chinese imperialistic claims over AP and if this was officially conducted by India, completely negates Chinese claim to the territorry on legal basis.
India claims all of pakistani kashmir, including uninhabited frontier part which pakistan ceded to china. Don't joke to me about imperialism and propaganda.

The mir of hunza in pakistani kashmir joined pakistan, and india claims hunza as part of kashmir. The mir was secretly communicating with the republic of china government over resurrecting the hunza's relationship with china, it had been a tributary to the qing dynasty, the last independent mir had fled to china after the british takeover, and the mir was considering an alliance with the ROC, then he decided to fully join pakistan when the indo pakistan war broke out.

The hunza are all ismaili muslims, and speak a non indo aryan language and never viewed themselves as indian, nor do they wish to join india, which claims their land. The mirs in the 1800s claimed descent from alexander the great, and said that the two most important people in the world were himself and the emperor of china, dismissing everyone else as rabble.

Chiang kai-shek pressed british india over border disputes, taiwan to this day still says that a massive part of burma is officially part of yunnan province, as well as AP being part of xikang province (which was dissolved by the communists)

India accepts China's challenge - Sitaram Johri - Google Books

Americans will not get a visit over that because they would be seen as marginal fringe jokers or mentally insane if they said things like that, because they have no chance of materializing. Should an armed rebellion arise, and martial law declared, they would get a visit from the cia.

Last edited by deke; November 4th, 2012 at 01:13 PM.
deke is offline  
Old November 4th, 2012, 05:17 PM   #256
Citizen
 
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 28

In the outcome of a possible war, I would imagine that America would only persue aerial and naval warfare, Land-based war is sucide.

The American Airforce would quickly be deployed. Stealthy American bombers and submarines would knock out China’s long-range surveillance radar and precision missile systems located deep inside the country. The initial “blinding campaign” would be followed by a larger air and naval assault. American Air-superiority would be ensured by it's larger numbers and quality. I would imagine F-22's would not be deployed unless vital locations need to be bombed by B-2's or B-52's.

Click the image to open in full size.

The Navy would respond by deploying its arsenal of non-nuclear long range ballistic missiles on Navy surface ships and the concentrated forces in major coastal cities, making them easy targets.The American Navy could easily blockade the trading routes used by China. The coastal cities of China are the heart of her economy. Major cities like Shanghai would collapse immediately. 70% of China's economy depends on goverment infrastructure program. How are you supposed to finance a large proportion of your economy without revenue? China does not have an adequate navy to put up a strong resistance.

Although, American Bases in Okinawa, Japan are vulnerable to Chinese Cruise Missles.
Many sources claim that the PLA now operates the indigenous HN-1 (320 NMI/600 km), HN-2 (800+ NMI/1,500+ km) and the HN-3 (1,350 NMI/2,500 km). They are sitting ducks without the adequate infrastructure to withstand bombardment from such attacks. It would be easy for China to aim for other military bases in Taiwan and South-Korea. North-Korea is a very likely proxy to attack American bases in South-Korea. American communications are susceptible by Chinese ICBM's or Ballistic Missiles, mostly all American communication depends on satellites. China has a very sophisticated cyber division and could easily attack vital American interests, in Economy, Intelligence, Communications and etc. China has more than $1.5 trillion in US Debt, aside from the fact it controls 90% of the global Rare-Earth-Element production and biggest reserves, it could shut down all of the American-technology industry (including military) and this would be catastrophic to the global economy.

If China is able to react fast, then it is likely that Guided anti-ship missiles would attack and sink U.S. aircraft carriers and other surface ships, if they are deployed in the front-line. Simultaneous Chinese strikes can easily destroy American air bases, making it impossible for the U.S. military to launch its fighter jets. The outnumbered American force could only fight back with conventional strikes on China’s mainland, knocking out long-range precision missiles and radar. Unless the J-20's are sufficient enough for air-superiority and the transcendency into the Pacific island's (where key air-fields are located).

In addition to China, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines all have competing claims on several clusters of South China Sea islands or Japan with the Senkaku island's. Rather than intervening with quiet diplomacy to untangle this incendiary thicket, the U.S. has the odds starkly sided against Beijing. Other Proxies will guaranty that the Chinese military has other problems to deal with. However, I fear greatly for South-Korea.

This war militarily would all really depend on who reacts quicker and how. But the economic prospects for both the countries is Armageddon like. However, Nuclear war is unlikely, but even so, China's second strike capability is not very advanced and America would completely annihilate China, with loosing only a few major American cities in the east-coast. The STAR wars system in not a 100% efficient, but good enough. And I hope such a war does not break out, but America is not prepared like China. Even though America still has a more powerful military. Her blind spots are still obvious.
Politician is offline  
Old November 18th, 2012, 06:58 AM   #257
Citizen
 
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 13

I found this interesting and relevant blog:



Polybios: The American presidential election
Joernry is offline  
Old November 18th, 2012, 07:07 AM   #258

Apachewarlord's Avatar
Chief idiot
 
Joined: Jun 2012
From: Hippy town U.S.A.!
Posts: 5,614
Blog Entries: 2

In the end I honestly think it would come down to leadership. The U.S. would win if the leadership was equal, but it would be a close fight
Apachewarlord is offline  
Old November 18th, 2012, 08:17 AM   #259
Historian
 
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,034

Quote:
Originally Posted by Politician View Post
In the outcome of a possible war, I would imagine that America would only persue aerial and naval warfare, Land-based war is sucide.

The American Airforce would quickly be deployed. Stealthy American bombers and submarines would knock out China’s long-range surveillance radar and precision missile systems located deep inside the country. The initial “blinding campaign” would be followed by a larger air and naval assault. American Air-superiority would be ensured by it's larger numbers and quality. I would imagine F-22's would not be deployed unless vital locations need to be bombed by B-2's or B-52's.

Click the image to open in full size.

The Navy would respond by deploying its arsenal of non-nuclear long range ballistic missiles on Navy surface ships and the concentrated forces in major coastal cities, making them easy targets.The American Navy could easily blockade the trading routes used by China. The coastal cities of China are the heart of her economy. Major cities like Shanghai would collapse immediately. 70% of China's economy depends on goverment infrastructure program. How are you supposed to finance a large proportion of your economy without revenue? China does not have an adequate navy to put up a strong resistance.

Although, American Bases in Okinawa, Japan are vulnerable to Chinese Cruise Missles.
Many sources claim that the PLA now operates the indigenous HN-1 (320 NMI/600 km), HN-2 (800+ NMI/1,500+ km) and the HN-3 (1,350 NMI/2,500 km). They are sitting ducks without the adequate infrastructure to withstand bombardment from such attacks. It would be easy for China to aim for other military bases in Taiwan and South-Korea. North-Korea is a very likely proxy to attack American bases in South-Korea. American communications are susceptible by Chinese ICBM's or Ballistic Missiles, mostly all American communication depends on satellites. China has a very sophisticated cyber division and could easily attack vital American interests, in Economy, Intelligence, Communications and etc. China has more than $1.5 trillion in US Debt, aside from the fact it controls 90% of the global Rare-Earth-Element production and biggest reserves, it could shut down all of the American-technology industry (including military) and this would be catastrophic to the global economy.

If China is able to react fast, then it is likely that Guided anti-ship missiles would attack and sink U.S. aircraft carriers and other surface ships, if they are deployed in the front-line. Simultaneous Chinese strikes can easily destroy American air bases, making it impossible for the U.S. military to launch its fighter jets. The outnumbered American force could only fight back with conventional strikes on China’s mainland, knocking out long-range precision missiles and radar. Unless the J-20's are sufficient enough for air-superiority and the transcendency into the Pacific island's (where key air-fields are located).

In addition to China, Vietnam, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines all have competing claims on several clusters of South China Sea islands or Japan with the Senkaku island's. Rather than intervening with quiet diplomacy to untangle this incendiary thicket, the U.S. has the odds starkly sided against Beijing. Other Proxies will guaranty that the Chinese military has other problems to deal with. However, I fear greatly for South-Korea.

This war militarily would all really depend on who reacts quicker and how. But the economic prospects for both the countries is Armageddon like. However, Nuclear war is unlikely, but even so, China's second strike capability is not very advanced and America would completely annihilate China, with loosing only a few major American cities in the east-coast. The STAR wars system in not a 100% efficient, but good enough. And I hope such a war does not break out, but America is not prepared like China. Even though America still has a more powerful military. Her blind spots are still obvious.
Taiwan would not side with america, because taiwan's claims on the south china sea islands are exactly the same as china's. Both china and taiwan claim all of the islands and sea as their own waters and because america has sided with vietnam and the philippines, america has sided against taiwan. Vietnam and taiwan are militarily at odds with each other over taiping island and america doesn't have bases in taiwan.

The star wars system is not even in operation, wth are you talking about? It was a massive failure and America does not have the capability to take down china's icbms if china fired them all at once.
deke is offline  
Old November 18th, 2012, 08:18 AM   #260

Epix's Avatar
Scholar
 
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 630

Did read once that China and Russia have a close to impregnable SAM umbrella over national territory.

The following is about China. Its from 2010.

Quote:
The recent deployment of China's first four indigenous KJ-2000 AWACS aircraft marks an important milestone in the PLA Air Force’s long march from being a ‘numbers intensive’ low technology force, to a much more modern high technology one.
More fundamentally, though, the AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System) extends China's deep and broad network of air defence Command Control Communications Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance (C3ISR) systems into a key airborne area. In doing so, China is now acquiring the radar and passive early warning and air defence command, control and communications it needs to counter foreign fighters and cruise missiles.
Quote:
All this means that China is deploying a modern, high technology air defence system based largely on the same or more advanced basic technologies used by the US, EU and Russia in their systems.
Once fully deployed and matured, this system will be effectively impregnable to regional air forces, and largely impregnable to US naval air power, itself the victim of chronic underinvestment. Indeed, the technology being deployed in strength by the PLA is so sophisticated that only the small planned inventory of US Air Force B-2A Spirit and F-22 Raptor aircraft will be capable of confidently penetrating a post-2015 PLA air defence network.
Entire article - China
Epix is offline  
Reply

  Historum > Themes in History > Speculative History

Tags
china, usa


Thread Tools
Display Modes


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Neolithic China, the China you do not know about. Wadjet Horus Asian History 40 June 16th, 2011 09:52 PM
Saying Hello from China/CA~ Mono New Users 18 March 20th, 2010 08:36 AM
Hello from China buckhardt New Users 11 January 10th, 2009 08:26 AM

Copyright © 2006-2013 Historum. All rights reserved.