jeroenrottgering

What if a war would break out tomorrow between the United States of American and China. No allies involved just the two. Let's pressume that both countries are wise enough not to use nuclear weapons who would win?

People's Republic of China?

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlsF2JAJyWg]China: a rising power - YouTube[/ame]

Population: 1,338,612,968
Capital: Beijing
Government: Presidental republic with one party in charge
Idealogy: Communism
Economy: Increasing
Moral: Strong support towards the government
Military status: Ready for war
Military achievements/failures the last 100 years:

- Northern expedition
- Defeated during the Japanese invasion
- Victory during the Chinese civil war
- Relative succes in the Korean war
- Involvement in Vietnam

Military:
- Army: 1,700,000 (800,000 in reserve)
- 5000 main battle tanks
- 5,500 armoured personnel carriers
2,200 infantry fighting vehicles
- 25,000 artillery pieces
- Air force: 300,000
- 2,500 aircrafts
- Navy: 250,000
- 1 Aircraft Carrier
- 26 Destroyers
- 50 Frigates
- 65 submarines
- 58 amphibious warfare ships
- 80 coastal warfare vessels
- 27 large landing ships
- 31 medium landings ships
- Technology: Mediocre

United States of America?

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CxXAAcDFqYM]United States: a declining power - YouTube[/ame]

Population: 308,745,538
Capital: Washington
Government: Federal presidential constitutional republic
Idealogy: Liberalism/Capitalism
Economy: Decreasing
Moral: Patriotic but tired of war
Military status: Exhausted from recent wars
Military achievements/failures the last 100 years:

- Aiding in winning world war I
- Winning world war II
- Relative succes during the Korean war
- An utter failure at the Vietnam war
- Relative succes during the golf war
- Pyrhic victory in both Iraq and Afghanistan

Military:
- Army: 561,984 (567,299 in reserve)
- 6,200 main battle tanks
- 11,800 armoured personnel carriers
- 6,724 infantry fighting vehicles
- 25,000 artillery pieces
- Air force: 329,638
- 5,573 aircrafts
- Navy: 250,000
- 11 Aircraft Carriers
- 60 Destroyers
- 27 Frigates
- 75 submarines
- 9 amphibious warfare ships
- 12 large landing ships
- 22 Cruisers
- Technology: Very High

Who would win and why?

pikeshot1600

Historically, sea power overcomes land power.

China is a continental power. The US is a maritime power.

Rasta

The USA would win because our Navy and technology are superior. An invasion on either side would be very costly though, I think.

pikeshot1600

Neither side could, or would try to, sustain any "invasion." Wars of the second half of the 20th century are illustrative. The two rivals would play out much of their conflict (over their vital interests) in other geographical locations, and by proxy as far as possible...Vietnam; Afghanistan.

The US and the USSR did that for forty-five years and never fought each other.

Rasta

Yep. Good point.

General Michael Collins

Proxy war might be more likely but direct conflict is not impossible ... like in the Korean War, for example.

pikeshot1600

In 1950, China was the proxy of the USSR.

General Michael Collins

Isn't that rather debatable?

okamido

Honestly, despite the fact that were are militarily and technologically superior, I believe that China would win as we no longer seem to have the will to do what it takes for victory. Our warrior culture is completely at the whim of our civilian culture, and our civilian culture is weak.

Charlie Bravo

I see your point but I think in this case I'd disagree. I think it's a lot more likely that our civilian culture would commit to a total war against uniformed opponents than the vague and nebulous "patrol" warfare against insurgents that we're currently engaged in, especially if China started the conflict. I think our civilian culture is alrady galvanized towards supporting our warrior culture, and a bloody nose from an actual military force as opposed to shady terrorists who blend into the civilian population would naturally be easier for civilians to not only swallow but get behind fully.