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Old January 31st, 2012, 09:11 AM   #1
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What will happen in the future with China and the West?


A massive shift is occurring in the global balance of power...Very rapid.
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Old January 31st, 2012, 10:37 AM   #2

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A massive shift is occurring in the global balance of power...Very rapid.
Please give us examples of how this power is shifting. From my perspective I see no change and even see more countries gravitating toward the west to make alliances because of the fear they feel from China.

Trade alliances are one thing, however military alliances are another thing entirely.
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Old January 31st, 2012, 11:19 AM   #3
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Please give us examples of how this power is shifting. From my perspective I see no change and even see more countries gravitating toward the west to make alliances because of the fear they feel from China.

Trade alliances are one thing, however military alliances are another thing entirely.
If you are talking about South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and othe Asian Pacific countries, then you are right. But I believe the Chinese, historically and pressently, do not have the imperialistic mentality unlike their Western counterparts. I am talking strictly on an economic standpoint, and there is no denial about that. Truth is, it's too early to really claim anything. But yeah the center of gravitiy is shiftin towards Asia because China and India are the two largest industrial capitalist sites in the world.
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Old January 31st, 2012, 11:58 AM   #4

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I don't see any shift, I do see an improved economy, which simply brings them into the economic conversation.
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Old January 31st, 2012, 12:48 PM   #5

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Originally Posted by Wenge View Post
Please give us examples of how this power is shifting. From my perspective I see no change and even see more countries gravitating toward the west to make alliances because of the fear they feel from China.

Trade alliances are one thing, however military alliances are another thing entirely.
In case no one has noticed, China just recently launched its' first aircraft carrier for sea trials. One does not aquire aircraft carriers if you do not desire the capability to project power. India will soon have to have one, as well as Japan. It's called "keeping up with the Joneses." Much as what happened between the European powers and battleships in the first part of the 20th century. Pakistan and North Korea are likely to follow despite the heavy expense. Probably, Iran, inevitably, as well.
Although it is true that the Chinese are over-all seemingly "well-mannered and mellow" they have had to learn many great historical lessons from their recent past. Plus, wealth has always historically translated into military power.
The greatest difficulty for the Chinese will come from India. Two huge populations competing for rapidly dwindling resources. And growing much faster (both in population and economically) than the rest of the world. Together the two countries account for 1/3 of the world's population. Plus, you couldn't have two nations more different from each other with a common boundary. Different races, different cultures, different spiritual beliefs, languages, foods, government and histories. Plus both are vain and proud peoples.
It may not happen soon, but it is inevitable. China and India will engage in a nuclear war within 10-20 years. Unless nature (or man) intervenes with some ghastly epidemic that destroys 75% of both countries' population.
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Old January 31st, 2012, 01:06 PM   #6

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In case no one has noticed, China just recently launched its' first aircraft carrier for sea trials. One does not aquire aircraft carriers if you do not desire the capability to project power. India will soon have to have one, as well as Japan. It's called "keeping up with the Joneses." Much as what happened between the European powers and battleships in the first part of the 20th century. Pakistan and North Korea are likely to follow despite the heavy expense. Probably, Iran, inevitably, as well.
Although it is true that the Chinese are over-all seemingly "well-mannered and mellow" they have had to learn many great historical lessons from their recent past. Plus, wealth has always historically translated into military power.
The greatest difficulty for the Chinese will come from India. Two huge populations competing for rapidly dwindling resources. And growing much faster (both in population and economically) than the rest of the world. Together the two countries account for 1/3 of the world's population. Plus, you couldn't have two nations more different from each other with a common boundary. Different races, different cultures, different spiritual beliefs, languages, foods, government and histories. Plus both are vain and proud peoples.
It may not happen soon, but it is inevitable. China and India will engage in a nuclear war within 10-20 years. Unless nature (or man) intervenes with some ghastly epidemic that destroys 75% of both countries' population.
First of all, China launched an aircraft carrier that it bought from the Ukraine. Building an aircraft carrier from the ground up is not quite the same as reverse engineering a second hand one. Second, they are of the same race. Third, India's population is still growing but China's population will be on the decline in the next ten years. Fourth, China's biggest problem is not from India but from its own population.
..
Whether or not the two nations involve themselves in a war, nuclear or otherwise, is yet to be determined. In my opinion, a major war between India and China is as likely as a major war between The United States and China. If your suspicions are correct then a war with India will involve the entire world, not just these two population burdened countries.
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Old January 31st, 2012, 02:47 PM   #7

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That ex-soviet aircraft carrier carries a quarter the fighters and a quarter the ground attack that a Nimitz does. Also I am not sure they have one of those AWACs things either. And if they don't have catapults does that mean they cant retrieve and launch planes simultaneously?

But the fact people think that having one gives mega credibility means that just owning it means something.

EDIT: I just read the Soviet Carriers carry anti-ship missiles (which the USA ships do not). Interesting.

Last edited by RusEvo; January 31st, 2012 at 03:03 PM.
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Old January 31st, 2012, 02:49 PM   #8

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Originally Posted by Wenge View Post
First of all, China launched an aircraft carrier that it bought from the Ukraine. Building an aircraft carrier from the ground up is not quite the same as reverse engineering a second hand one. Second, they are of the same race. Third, India's population is still growing but China's population will be on the decline in the next ten years. Fourth, China's biggest problem is not from India but from its own population.
..
Whether or not the two nations involve themselves in a war, nuclear or otherwise, is yet to be determined. In my opinion, a major war between India and China is as likely as a major war between The United States and China. If your suspicions are correct then a war with India will involve the entire world, not just these two population burdened countries.
The Chinese did not reverse engineer the Ukrainian vessel, they only finished building it. However, they did aquire it for study and obviously to learn from it. That is what the term "sea trials" mean. I wouldn't be the slightest surprised if another more advanced carrier is seen within two years and then others as well.
Plus, I hate to burst your bubble , but the Chinese and the Indians are not the same race. Two entirely different ones at that. And if you ever dare to say that to either of them prepare to get a severe beating.
I don't get the rationale for China's population will be "on the decline in the next ten years." When China was approaching 1 billion, they decided to introduce "one child per one family" which was an utter failure. Chinese population has now surpassed 1.3 billion, a thirty percent increase. Not a good indication of your rationale. Plus, when people get more food they tend to reproduce more often, although in the industrialized west that hasn't proven as accurate except with certain immigrant populations of a Catholic, Mormon or Moslem persuasion. However, none of the western nations is declining in population either. Just not growing quite as fast as China or India.
There is no guarantee that the United States or anyone else might be involved in a nuclear war between India and China. In the next 10-20 years the US could easily become a second rate power, much like the British after they lost their Empire. The US could become a nation that no one would greatly fear except our central American neighbors and possibly not even them. The only thing that might keep others at bay is our nuclear teeth. But who knows what technology may come about that will make even that outdated? If we can't get them to their targets what good are they?
There is always the possibility of fallout affecting us in a China/India exchange, but that is all that might concern us. Except for our obvious economic co-dependency on both nations. Which is only going to get worse. Pakistan might be involved on China's side with a possible Russian-Indian alliance. But alliances are notorious for suddenly shifting. Many nations might opt to take no side at all. Including Russia and Pakistan and wait out to see who wins. Just let the two giants struggle and destroy each other. Although occupying an irradiated landscape might prove very difficult.
The one thing that you stated that may be possible is the decay of Chinese national cohesion, but that might lead to even more problems than solutions. How many more nuclear powers does Asia need or can handle without someone eventually using this weapon? Or enables some terrorist faction to get their hands on one?

Last edited by Zarin; January 31st, 2012 at 02:55 PM.
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Old January 31st, 2012, 03:16 PM   #9

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zarin View Post
The Chinese did not reverse engineer the Ukrainian vessel, they only finished building it. However, they did aquire it for study and obviously to learn from it. That is what the term "sea trials" mean. I wouldn't be the slightest surprised if another more advanced carrier is seen within two years and then others as well.
Plus, I hate to burst your bubble , but the Chinese and the Indians are not the same race. Two entirely different ones at that. And if you ever dare to say that to either of them prepare to get a severe beating.
I don't get the rationale for China's population will be "on the decline in the next ten years." When China was approaching 1 billion, they decided to introduce "one child per one family" which was an utter failure. Chinese population has now surpassed 1.3 billion, a thirty percent increase. Not a good indication of your rationale. Plus, when people get more food they tend to reproduce more often, although in the industrialized west that hasn't proven as accurate except with certain immigrant populations of a Catholic, Mormon or Moslem persuasion. However, none of the western nations is declining in population either. Just not growing quite as fast as China or India.
There is no guarantee that the United States or anyone else might be involved in a nuclear war between India and China. In the next 10-20 years the US could easily become a second rate power, much like the British after they lost their Empire. The US could become a nation that no one would greatly fear except our central American neighbors and possibly not even them. The only thing that might keep others at bay is our nuclear teeth. But who knows what technology may come about that will make even that outdated? If we can't get them to their targets what good are they?
There is always the possibility of fallout affecting us in a China/India exchange, but that is all that might concern us. Except for our obvious economic co-dependency on both nations. Which is only going to get worse. Pakistan might be involved on China's side with a possible Russian-Indian alliance. But alliances are notorious for suddenly shifting. Many nations might opt to take no side at all. Including Russia and Pakistan and wait out to see who wins. Just let the two giants struggle and destroy each other. Although occupying an irradiated landscape might prove very difficult.
The one thing that you stated that may be possible is the decay of Chinese national cohesion, but that might lead to even more problems than solutions. How many more nuclear powers does Asia need or can handle without someone eventually using this weapon? Or enables some terrorist faction to get their hands on one?
The Chinese and Indians are of the same race and I have spouted this many times with nary a scratch being applied to my person.

The Chinese population growth has stabilized and will be in decline by the year 2020. Despite the fact that Chinese people are living better almost 40 years of the one child policy has conditioned at least the urban population to only having one child. Since China's urban population is over 50% it is not difficult to conclude that the policy has become effective and will become more effective. Also, the expectations of living in China make it prohibitive for a couple to have more than one child because the cost is enormous. Believe me I witness it every week. The amount of money that is spent on education in this country is tremendous. The children take 4 and 5 extra classes a week at private institutions in addition to their, very costly, public schools.

Nothing is free in China and the amount of public assistance for those in true need is limited. Inflation is rampant here and the middle class, middle aged people are not satisfied with what is happening here.

For all its great economic growth in the past 30 years China has failed to provide a safety net for the chance of a severe economic downturn happening. Their economic stimulus cannot sustain their needs if there is a severe recession in this country. The country cannot tolerate a simple 3.5 or 4 percent growth. It is not high enough to move this country forward. When the economic downturn comes to this country, and it will come to this country, there is going to be a situation I have no desire to experience.

Why China's Declining Population Will Take 100 Years To Fix - Business Insider

China

Population

China's population: The most surprising demographic crisis | The Economist
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Old January 31st, 2012, 03:36 PM   #10
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The Chinese and Indians are of the same race and I have spouted this many times with nary a scratch being applied to my person.

The Chinese population growth has stabilized and will be in decline by the year 2020. Despite the fact that Chinese people are living better almost 40 years of the one child policy has conditioned at least the urban population to only having one child. Since China's urban population is over 50% it is not difficult to conclude that the policy has become effective and will become more effective. Also, the expectations of living in China make it prohibitive for a couple to have more than one child because the cost is enormous. Believe me I witness it every week. The amount of money that is spent on education in this country is tremendous. The children take 4 and 5 extra classes a week at private institutions in addition to their, very costly, public schools.

Nothing is free in China and the amount of public assistance for those in true need is limited. Inflation is rampant here and the middle class, middle aged people are not satisfied with what is happening here.

For all its great economic growth in the past 30 years China has failed to provide a safety net for the chance of a severe economic downturn happening. Their economic stimulus cannot sustain their needs if there is a severe recession in this country. The country cannot tolerate a simple 3.5 or 4 percent growth. It is not high enough to move this country forward. When the economic downturn comes to this country, and it will come to this country, there is going to be a situation I have no desire to experience.

Why China's Declining Population Will Take 100 Years To Fix - Business Insider

China

Population

China's population: The most surprising demographic crisis | The Economist
CHINESE AND INDIANS are the SAME RACE? Are you on crack: Indians are similar to the Middle easterners/Arabs...just like how Europeans are related there. Europeans, Indians, Middle Easterners...Caucasoid.

As for the rest, I have no doubt China will figure out one way or another to fix their issues....China always have and always will find a way.
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