Clodius

I've had a fun idea for a new game, for those of us who like being armchair statesmen or just enjoy indulging in a bit of apocalyptic pessimism.

One person comes up with an entirely speculative "crisis" in current affairs. Subsequent posters take it in turns to say what they imagine would happen next. We can watch the crisis escalate and see where it ends up, and keep following the "story" through, either until we get to some kind of conclusion or until we get bored of it and want to try out another apocalypse!

FOR EXAMPLE: Let's say that someone comes up with the following scenario. There's a major terrorist attack in Tel Aviv. A subsequent Israeli investigation reveals it was carried out by a group with direct links to the Iranian government. What would happen next?

The next poster would need to think about how Israel would respond (would it seek justice first through diplomatic channels? If so, what channels and how would that work out? Or would it go to war? If so, unilaterally, or would it seek co-operation through the UN, or try to build its own coalition? How would the Western world / different parts of the Islamic world / Russia / China react to this?).

And we keep going, and see where we end up!

So, since I've already used one suitably depressing example, let's go with that. Terrorist attack in Tel Aviv, linked to Iranian government. What happens next?

(p.s. try to remember this is just a speculative game. Let's restrict ourselves to factual "predictions" of what would happen, and not start an Israel / Palestine flame war!!!)

AlpinLuke

Tel Aviv prepares the military retaliation, but starts to follow the diplomatic steps.

In geopolitics it's essential to act at least on 2 levels [I guess Israel would act also on a third level, but I will leave it out of the thread]: soft power and hard power.

Now, Israel would activate all its contact to support an official protest c/o UN general assembly, asking in the same moment a condemnation by the UN Security Council.

If the evidences of the Iranian involvement are clear and heavy it will be on the shoulders of "Iranian friends" [Russia and China] the responsibility to eventually stop a resolution of the Security Council.

In the meanwhile IDF [and allied foreign armies] would prepare a general and decisive first strike against Iran, in case the diplomatic way would fail [but no one would hear about this on TV news ...]

So, let's imagine the atmosphere in the Security Council and the votes of the members ...