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Old November 12th, 2012, 07:35 AM   #171

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Firstly, if Britain had succeeded, the Germans would have lost valuable ore supplies (Hitler had lost his temper with Molotov over that very reason before Barbarossa). Also, and the real reason Churchill wanted the operation, was that Russia would have been prevented from territorial expansion in that area.
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Old November 13th, 2012, 02:48 AM   #172

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If one may return to the subject of the original post -

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand.../MR880.ch3.pdf
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Old November 13th, 2012, 03:18 AM   #173
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Any major war inside the "main western" countries(EU plus North America etcetera) seems not to be that likely in the near-future, but if it should be then a sort of civil war. But even when we take internal disharmonies, hostile feelings and dissatisfaction into account neither such a civil war, nor any major violent change seems that likely.
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Old November 13th, 2012, 06:40 AM   #174

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The same would have been said about the Balkans some years ago. Rivalries and divisions between nations aren't easily forgotten and can return with a vengeance if conditions are suitable. France and Germany for instance are cooperating now (they both want a share of the same pie and can only cook the feast together) but at heart represent latin and germanic roots which have coloured their relationship since ad9. Notice how Scotland and Wales want to be independent now that they've sensed weakness in London politics and a tolerance for autonomous rule. Whilst this is being handled peaceably these represent real long lasting divisions which might at some future date, however unlikely it may seem right now, become nastier. The same is true of many of the older disputes at work around the world.

One vital ingredient missing of course are charismatic leaders antagonistic to each other who would set two countries at war with one another.
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