2018 - The Year of Earthquakes

Baldtastic

Ad Honorem
Aug 2009
5,483
Londinium
Given the recent earthquake on the Iran/Iraq border I thought it worthwhile posting this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/18/2018-set-to-be-year-of-big-earthquakes

“The correlation between Earth’s rotation and earthquake activity is strong and suggests there is going to be an increase in numbers of intense earthquakes next year,” Bilham told the Observer last week.

In their study, Bilham and Bendick looked at earthquakes of magnitude 7 and greater that had occurred since 1900. “Major earthquakes have been well recorded for more than a century and that gives us a good record to study,” said Bilham.

They found five periods when there had been significantly higher numbers of large earthquakes compared with other times. “In these periods, there were between 25 to 30 intense earthquakes a year,” said Bilham. “The rest of the time the average figure was around 15 major earthquakes a year.”
http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303

I thought it best not to post this in the Climate Change thread!
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,231
Sydney
.
the article concentrate on the San Andreas fault
other overdue Eartquakes are Tokyo bay , and Istanbul region
Earthquakes do not happen in isolation , a long time of quiet is usually the sign that a bigger one in coming , then there are a succession of "avalanche" quakes followed by a quieted period as the tensions have been released .

For sure there will be a big one within ten years , the usual suspects are there but sometimes quakes occur inside the plates , so far any effort to predict the rupture point within one month has been futile
It seems to be related to a exponential build up of stresses just before the event
 

Baldtastic

Ad Honorem
Aug 2009
5,483
Londinium
.
the article concentrate on the San Andreas fault
other overdue Eartquakes are Tokyo bay , and Istanbul region
Earthquakes do not happen in isolation , a long time of quiet is usually the sign that a bigger one in coming , then there are a succession of "avalanche" quakes followed by a quieted period as the tensions have been released .

For sure there will be a big one within ten years , the usual suspects are there but sometimes quakes occur inside the plates , so far any effort to predict the rupture point within one month has been futile
It seems to be related to a exponential build up of stresses just before the event
True, however the first article (or rather those quoted in the 1st article) does propose that the majority of earthquakes predicted for next year will occur in the equatorial regions . Beyond that, I assume that the usual suspects will be subject to increased activity, along fault lines.

Of course, this is entirely a prediction based on historical.
 
Jan 2016
392
Ohio
.
the article concentrate on the San Andreas fault
other overdue Eartquakes are Tokyo bay , and Istanbul region
Earthquakes do not happen in isolation , a long time of quiet is usually the sign that a bigger one in coming , then there are a succession of "avalanche" quakes followed by a quieted period as the tensions have been released .

For sure there will be a big one within ten years , the usual suspects are there but sometimes quakes occur inside the plates , so far any effort to predict the rupture point within one month has been futile
It seems to be related to a exponential build up of stresses just before the event
how big? We have already had some pretty big devastating earthquakes. Im not expecting anything abnormal next year. statistics for the past 10 years are fairly similar
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,231
Sydney
.
The intensity versus frequency of Earthquake is the same as volcanoes and wars
it's all in a mathematical formula called the Gutenberg -Richter law
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gutenberg–Richter_law

Mr Richter is the guy who invented the Richter scale , basically a log ten curve
IE a 6 Richter is ten time stronger than a 5 Richter , this turn out to be 32 time more destructive
a 1 Richter is not felt by people and would only be recorded by instrument
it get stronger until by 5 Richter everyone can feel it , crockery rattle and poorly build buildings crack
it start to make the local news
 

MrKap

Ad Honorem
Aug 2011
2,353
The USGS has a database of all known earthquakes in the USA, and I think other parts of the world are reported there as well.

Earthquake lights might be some interesting phenominon for you to look into since your interest.

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/01/140106-earthquake-lights-earthquake-prediction-geology-science/

Bizarre Earthquake Lights Finally Explained
Rare lights seen near earthquakes had long been called UFOs.
Most earthquakes occur in, or the areas where there are heavy earthquakes, are canyons.

They are normally rifting areas, due to spread or underground uplift.


Anywho the earthquake lights probably have a connection to the earth geo magnetics.


Also, I can't find the article, but some Russian scientist(s) discovered a correlation bewteen variances in the Earths speed of rotation and the weather. Yet they couldn't determine whether the weather caused the variance in rotation speed, or vice versa.


Hope that helps.
 
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MrKap

Ad Honorem
Aug 2011
2,353
Hey! It might be all that fracking.

Drilling in Texas leads to uptick in earthquakes, as sleeping faults reawaken

https://www.rt.com/usa/410909-texas-earthquakes-fracking/

In the US since 2008, an unprecedented surge in the amount of earthquakes has hit several states. Most scientists now agree the surge is being triggered by fracking, or wastewater injections being shot into deep wells for oil and gas production.
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,231
Sydney

MrKap

Ad Honorem
Aug 2011
2,353
Wow! Your article says a 5.6 Oklahoma Quake was probably caused by the sub surface injections.

A magnitude 5.6 earthquake shook Oklahoma on Saturday, tied for the strongest quake ever recorded in the state. Odds are it was triggered by fracking operations, specifically the subsurface injection of fracking wastewater and produced waters in general, even from non-fracking operations.
 

sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,231
Sydney
.
Yep , still the causation has to be established , as the talk on the richter scale above indicate 5.6 is not a big deal , it could be a local release of previously bottled up stresses

The water injection has been discussed in California to "lubricate" the fault-lines , more small Earthquakes , no massive one .
no politician want to touch this with a barge pole , they would be subsequently blamed by the press for any large destructive ones