800 million jobs lost by 2030

Apr 2014
201
New York, U.S.
Yesterday I read an article which stated that by 2030 800 million jobs will be lost worldwide due to automation. The article was the result of analysis by a very reputable investment firm.
That is a staggering amount of the world’s workforce.
Assuming that this is correct, what might be the repercussions from such an occurrence on both the national and worldwide scene?
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,631
Las Vegas, NV USA
Automation presumably reduces costs for the manufacturer and therefore increases profits. However if there is high unemployment, the market for finished goods is smaller. Many businesses went bankrupt in the 1930's. Government subsidies for the unemployed are not a solution because it will only provide for necessities. As the economy fails, some have advocated for a cooperative economy where affected companies are sold directly to producer/consumer cooperatives owned by the public directly. Cooperatives have existed for many years but it's not clear how they would work in the absence of large investor owned corporations.
 
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Menshevik

Ad Honorem
Dec 2012
9,413
here
As the economy fails, some have advocated for a cooperative economy where affected companies are sold directly to producer/consumer cooperatives owned by the public directly. Cooperatives have existed for many years but it's not clear how they would work in the absence of large investor owned corporations.
Can you give an example of how this would work in the real world? Preferably in more layman’s terms. 😊
 

stevev

Ad Honorem
Apr 2017
3,631
Las Vegas, NV USA
Can you give an example of how this would work in the real world? Preferably in more layman’s terms. 😊

While cooperatives have been around for a while, there's never been an economy that ran on a cooperative basis. Producer cooperatives are owned by the employees. It's expected that competent managers would play a role but the cooperative is run for the benefit of the employees. If there must be automation, then the employees could still be the ones to benefit from it. Investor owned corporations would not be seized or nationalized. It's expected that their stock value would fall either because of high unemployment or because it's hard to support prices when production costs are falling. Banks or the government would be the agents to finance the transfers but new investment would still be needed for research and development and marketing. Machines won't be telling humans what to like or not like.

Financing could be a problem. The investor owned corporation sells shares of ownership to the public. A cooperative is defined by ownership by the employees. So they must depend on other kinds of debt. Today Google offers non voting shares well as corporate bonds and values its relative independence for doing so. In fact the general tendency today is for corporations to buy back stock (ownership) and give stock to employees as compensation.
 
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Oct 2012
871

While cooperatives have been around for a while, there's never been an economy that ran on a cooperative basis. Producer cooperatives are owned by the employees. It's expected that competent managers would play a role but the cooperative is run for the benefit of the employees. If there must be automation, then the employees could still be the ones to benefit from it. Investor owned corporations would not be seized or nationalized. It's expected that their stock value would fall either because of high unemployment or because it's hard to support prices when production costs are falling. Banks or the government would be the agents to finance the transfers but new investment would still be needed for research and development and marketing. Machines won't be telling humans what to like or not like.

Financing could be a problem. The investor owned corporation sells shares of ownership to the public. A cooperative is defined by ownership by the employees. So they must depend on other kinds of debt. Today Google offers non voting shares well as corporate bonds and values its relative independence for doing so. In fact the general tendency today is for corporations to buy back stock (ownership) and give stock to employees as compensation.
Financing will be a problem. Cooperatives are also quite poor in research and development and decision making is sluggish, so they may be successful in basic production, but not really more than that.
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,017
Australia


 

tomar

Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
14,086
There are already some robots (automated programs) trading with each other... at some point you may envisage a whole set up involving only robots doing stuff for other robots....... which raises the question of how an economy will work, if humans are basically out of the production chain ....
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,017
Australia
People have been predicting mass unemployment from automation for 200 years.
And they were right. It is just being hidden in other data. Look at the average number of hours worked per week 100-200 years ago and compare that to today. Unemployment would be twice as high if we all worked the number of hours they did the 19th century. Also look at the ratio of workers to non-workers and how it has crashed over the same time period.
 
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