A very different large-scale Middle Eastern war in the 1940s

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
OK--here is this scenario of mine (with a long TL beforehand :)):

-1866: Dmitry Karakozov successfully assassinates Tsar Alexander II of Russia. Thus, Alexander III becomes Tsar of Russia 15 years earlier than he did in our TL.
-1867: Tsar Alexander III sells Alaska to the United States of America. In addition to this, during this time, Tsar Alexander III becomes fascinated by the industrialization which is occurring in countries such as the U.S. and Britain and decides to actively encourage rapid industrialization in Russia as well. Thus, in this TL, Russia industrializes somewhat faster than it did in our TL.
-1868: Tsar Alexander III's eldest son, Nicholas, is born. Due to the butterfly effort, this TL's Nicholas is different from our TL's Nicholas (II). Indeed, this TL's Nicholas (II) is thankfully less of a dunce that our TL's Nicholas (II) was. :)
-1879: Tsar Alexander III decides to build two double-track Trans-Siberian Railways as a part of his program to try rapidly industrializing Russia.
-1882: The Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy is signed.
-1888: Wilhelm II becomes Kaiser of Germany.
-1894: The Franco-Russian alliance is signed. Several months later, Tsar Alexander III of Russia dies at age 49. His son Nicholas II becomes the new Tsar of Russia. Shortly afterwards, Tsar Nicholas II of Russia marries French Princess (in exile) Helene of Orleans.
-1903: Russia's two double-track Trans-Siberian railways are finally completed.
-1904: The Russo-Japanese War breaks out. Also, the Anglo-French Entente Cordiale is signed.
-1905: The Russo-Japanese War ends with a Russian victory on land (indeed, Russia successfully occupied all of Korea in this TL) and with a Japanese victory at sea (due to the decisive and lopsided Japanese victory at Tsushima). Due to the defeat and debacle at Tsushima, Russian Tsar Nicholas II orders a shake-up of the Russian military and decides to make the Russian military more merit-based (thus allowing commoners to rise to high positions in the Russian military).
-1907: The Anglo-Russian Entente is signed.
-1914: An assassination attempt on Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary fails. Meanwhile, Ireland descends into massive trouble and unrest.
-1915: The Anglo-Russian Entente fails to be renewed, but Britain's and Russia's close ties to France still bind these two countries together.
-1916: Emperor Franz Joseph of Austria-Hungary dies at age 86. Afterwards, due to its fear(s) of the anti-Hungarian plans of new Emperor Franz Ferdinand, Hungary secedes from Austria-Hungary and requests Russian assistance. Russia agrees to military intervene on Hungary's side in this war, thus activating the European alliance system and sparking World War I in this TL. At the start of this TL's World War I, Germany utilizes the Schlieffen Plan and invades Belgium and France before having its advance halted at the Marne. meanwhile, Russia makes total mincemeat of the Austrian Army and links up to its Hungarian allies. In addition to this, Russia defeats the German Army in East Prussia and forces the Germans to retreat to the Vistula River. Meanwhile, in Budapest, Russo-Hungarian forces decisively defeat German-Austrian forces. Afterwards, Russia and its Hungarian and Serbian allies race towards Vienna. However, the Russians and their Hungarian and Serbian allies logistically overextend themselves and are halted by the Germans and Austrians near the outskirts of Vienna. However, this defense of Vienna is costly to the Germans; indeed, the German troops which were moved from eastern Germany to the Vienna area weakened Germany's position on its own eastern territory and thus helped allow Russia to advance from the Vistula River to the Oder and Eastern Neisse Rivers.
-1917: Russia and its Serbian and Hungarian allies successfully capture southern Austria, including the city of Trieste, thus creating a land route between them and Italy. Shortly afterwards, Italy enters World War I on the side of the Triple Entente and attacks Austria in the north. Meanwhile, Germany and Austria make a desperate attempt to recapture Budapest and fail. Afterwards, Russia and its Hungarian and Serbian stage a decoy attack on Vienna while having Russia launch its main attack in Silesia. The Germans and Austrians take the bait and their unpreparedness allows Russia to successfully capture Silesia and to advance into Czechia afterwards, capturing Prague. Meanwhile, a Franco-British attack on the Western Front fails to break through the German trenches.
-1918: Russia launches an invasion of Germany through Czechia and also successfully crosses the Oder River. Desperate, Germany quickly withdraws its troops from Vienna and successfully defends both Saxony and Berlin from these Russian invasions. However, this German withdrawal from Vienna allows Russia and its Hungarian and Serbian allies to successfully capture Vienna and thus to knock Austria out of the war. Feeling the heat, Germany announces a policy of unrestricted submarine warfare in the North Sea and Atlantic Ocean shortly afterwards. As a result of this decision, the U.S. declares war on Germany shortly afterwards. Meanwhile on the Western Front, a Franco-British offensive successfully breaks through the German lines as a result of German sending some of the troops from the Western Front to protect itself against the Russian forces on the Eastern Front. Shortly afterwards, realizing that the war is lost, Germany sues for peace.
-1919: The Treaty of Versailles is signed. In this treaty, Russia acquires Galicia, Posen, the Polish Corridor, the Memelland, southern East Prussia, and Russian puppet states in both Hungary and Czechoslovakia. Meanwhile, Russia's Serbian ally acquires all or almost all of the South Slav-majority areas in the Balkans. Since the Ottoman Empire was neutral in this TL's World War I, it obviously does not lose any territory after the end of World War I in this TL. In addition to all of this, Russia eagerly loots a lot of industrial equipment and machinery in the parts of Germany and Austria-Hungary which were under Russian occupation at the end of World War I. In turn, this strengthens Russia's industrial might even more in this TL.
-The 1920s: Russia begins a policy of agitation in relation to the Armenian, Kurdish, and Arab subjects of the Ottoman Empire, hoping to get some or all of these Ottoman subjects to rebel against Ottoman rule.
-The 1930s: Russia continues and escalates this policy of agitation in relation to the Ottoman Empire, infuriating both Britain and the United States of America.
-1945: Russia's policy of agitation finally pays off when a large-scale Arab rebellion in the Ottoman Empire breaks out (for the record, the Ottomans did not dare provoke any of these minority groups due to their fear of a Russian invasion of the Ottoman Empire). Russia gives the Ottoman Empire an ultimatum to withdraw from all of the Arab-majority areas of the Ottoman Empire and to allow one or more independent Arab states to be set up there. When the Ottoman Empire refuses to agree to this Russian ultimatum, Russia invades both the Ottoman Empire and Persia (both for Persia's oil and to use Persia as a gateway to the Ottoman Empire for Russian forces). In response to this, and due to their accurate fear that Russia wants to control both the Straits and the Middle East's oil reserves, both Britain and the U.S. declare war on Russia. In response to this declaration of war, Russia sends a decoy force to invade Afghanistan in order to divert British and American attention from both Persia and the Ottoman Empire. Also, it is worth noting that, in this war, Russia wants to conquer both Persia and the entire Ottoman Empire extremely quickly and to entrench itself there while hoping that Britain and the U.S. would eventually bleed themselves to exhaustion and agree to both end the war and to support a pro-Russian (post-war) peace settlement.

Anyway, how exactly would this war turn out? Any thoughts on this? Also, any questions about this TL and scenario of mine?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Also, is this TL and scenario of mine completely realistic? :) In addition to this, though, there is no Nazi rise to power in Germany and thus no World War II (as we know it) in this TL. :)
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Is my question and scenario here too much for people here to read and/or absorb, or what?
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,597
Italy, Lago Maggiore
No, not that. Your scenario simply forgets to consider under the right light the Communist Revolution which condemned Russia to lose at least 70 years of history ...
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
No, not that. Your scenario simply forgets to consider under the right light the Communist Revolution which condemned Russia to lose at least 70 years of history ...
Actually, the Communist Revolution is completely butterflied away in Russia in this TL due to Russia's much better military performance in World War I, due to the much shorter length of World War I, and due to Russia having more railroads in this TL which can be used to feed the people in Russia's cities at the same time that Russia is using its other railroads to send more troops to the front. :)
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,597
Italy, Lago Maggiore
Actually, the Communist Revolution is completely butterflied away in Russia in this TL due to Russia's much better military performance in World War I, due to the much shorter length of World War I, and due to Russia having more railroads in this TL which can be used to feed the people in Russia's cities at the same time that Russia is using its other railroads to send more troops to the front. :)
Ok.

Let's see ...

First of all, Russia had to keep its American colony, not selling Alaska to US. Such a bridge to the American Pacific waters would have been pivotal in the following decades.

Then, to industrialize Siberia wasn't that easy [I know that the comparison with the American new frontier is easy, but Siberia is Siberia! Russia is doing this now, thanks to modern available technology].

I bet more on the industrialization of European Russia, with a great improvement of the military industry and of the economical network.

If this was the case, Russia would have defeated Austria-Hungary in a while [we know very well that Austrian performances against Russians without German aids were poor in reality, imagine against a very industrialized and militarized Russia!] forcing Germany on a defensive stance already in 1915.

Italy would have reached an agreement with Russia and may be Rome would have gained well more territories than in reality after WW I.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Ok.

Let's see ...

First of all, Russia had to keep its American colony, not selling Alaska to US. Such a bridge to the American Pacific waters would have been pivotal in the following decades.
No can do; after all, I myself am certainly an American patriot and thus I certainly cannot have the U.S. not acquire Alaska in this TL. :) ;)

Then, to industrialize Siberia wasn't that easy [I know that the comparison with the American new frontier is easy, but Siberia is Siberia! Russia is doing this now, thanks to modern available technology].

I bet more on the industrialization of European Russia, with a great improvement of the military industry and of the economical network.
Completely agreed. :)

If this was the case, Russia would have defeated Austria-Hungary in a while [we know very well that Austrian performances against Russians without German aids were poor in reality, imagine against a very industrialized and militarized Russia!] forcing Germany on a defensive stance already in 1915.
Except World War I breaks out in 1916 rather than in 1914 in this TL. :)

Italy would have reached an agreement with Russia and may be Rome would have gained well more territories than in reality after WW I.
Completely agreed. :)
 

Space Shark

Ad Honorem
Mar 2012
3,474
Redneck Country, AKA Texas
Interesting timeline. AlpinLuke brought up some legitimate points on the Russian Revolution, but overall it's a well thought out scenario for an industrialized Tsarist Russia. I don't think the Germans would have done that bad on the eastern front, however. What do France and Britain get from TTL Versailles?
 
Apr 2013
138
N/A
Wasn't British allied with Japan during and after Russia Japanese war?
If Russia wins this war I think Britain would still see Russia as "big bad".Russian defeat was a great blow to Russian Prestige.
So Britain would probably stays neutral in this alternative WW1.
And why do Ottomans stay neutral? And what happens in Russia without revolution?