An independent Kingdom of Poland led by some Romanov prince is created out of Congress Poland's territory in the 1890s

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#1
What if, after coming to power, for whatever reason, Russian Tsar Nicholas II would have decided to give Poland its independence within Congress Poland's borders in the 1890s? This newly independent Poland would be led by some Romanov prince of Nicholas's choosing who would subsequently have to renounce all of his and his descendants' rights of succession to the Russian throne. This newly independent Poland would also have to be in an alliance with Russia and France; that's Nicholas's precondition for Polish independence in this scenario.

Anyway, what would this independent Poland's history have subsequently looked like? Also, what effect would the restoration of Poland's independence within Congress Poland's borders in the 1890s have had on European geopolitics since that point in time?
 
Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#2
Be better off if the Romanov king was a vassal of the Tsar as well.
That said recreating Poland would be an obvious threat to Germany and Austria, it would further inflame tensions. Aside from that things would go about the same. Poland would be conquered by Germany during the war, then liberated after the war and be given additional territory. Pretty much putting it in the same position before ww2 as it was in reality.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#3
Be better off if the Romanov king was a vassal of the Tsar as well.
He'll be as much of a vassal of the Russian Tsar as Napoleon's brother Louis was when he was King of the Netherlands.

That said recreating Poland would be an obvious threat to Germany and Austria, it would further inflame tensions. Aside from that things would go about the same. Poland would be conquered by Germany during the war, then liberated after the war and be given additional territory. Pretty much putting it in the same position before ww2 as it was in reality.
There's no guarantee that FF still gets assassinated in this TL, though.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#7
Or some squabble over borders in Africa or some country having too large a military or some other revolution. Europe was a powder keg, a spark would come somewhere.
It needs to be a spark that powers are actually willing to fight over, though. After 1917, Germany is going to be much more cautious about starting any wars due to the Schlieffen Plan already becoming outdated due to the completion of Russia's Great Military Program. Of course, Russia could trigger an alt-WWI even after 1917--such as in Hungary.
 
Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#8
It needs to be a spark that powers are actually willing to fight over, though. After 1917, Germany is going to be much more cautious about starting any wars due to the Schlieffen Plan already becoming outdated due to the completion of Russia's Great Military Program. Of course, Russia could trigger an alt-WWI even after 1917--such as in Hungary.
The germans were arrogant, they wouldn't back down simply from France and Russia threatening them. They would change strategies and modernize.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#9
The germans were arrogant, they wouldn't back down simply from France and Russia threatening them. They would change strategies and modernize.
But they'd have to fight a long war with no guarantee of success--even if Britain will remain neutral. What would really help the Germans would be if Britain allied with them.
 
Apr 2017
1,555
U.S.A.
#10
But they'd have to fight a long war with no guarantee of success--even if Britain will remain neutral. What would really help the Germans would be if Britain allied with them.
Never happen, Germany had become the main threat to the European balance and Britain had no reason to ally with them.
The Germans would come up with some strategy to defeat Russia and france, weather it be real or imagined. No wars have a guarantee of success. You think Frederick the great had a fool proof strategy to win the seven years war?
 
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