Brazil Presidential Elections

Jan 2014
1,675
Portugal
#1
So there will be one of the most important election in Brazil's history next month.
The already controversial run, that saw Lula get jail time and be virtualy out of the race, sees now the main contender - controversial righ winger - Jair Bolsonaro getting stabbed.

Some talk in civil war (for me highly unlikely) but sure Brazilian society is divided.
 
Jul 2016
738
Dengie Peninsula
#2
Two years ago, myself and my friends caught a taxi home , the driver of which, drove us through a "Favela" overlooking Rio. He did not stop at any red light and had a revolver on his lap. Brazil has got big troubles.
 

Tairusiano

Ad Honorem
Jun 2012
2,914
Brazil
#3
So there will be one of the most important election in Brazil's history next month.
The already controversial run, that saw Lula get jail time and be virtualy out of the race, sees now the main contender - controversial righ winger - Jair Bolsonaro getting stabbed.

Some talk in civil war (for me highly unlikely) but sure Brazilian society is divided.
Bolsonaro knife incident although it was something that should not have happened, would become a boost to his campaign, now he will use it to not go to the debate where he was getting mauled by the other candidates, not only that he would gonna play the victim for the next thousand years.
Lula and PT know that they couldn't dispute the elections, but he is an old fox, they tried to maneuver and maintain his name as a candidate to gain time and secure the biggest number of people that want to vote for him and now he cant, he will say to "his people" to vote for the candidate he supports.
 
Jan 2017
328
UK
#4
1st round:

Jair Bolsonaro (Social Liberal Party) 46%
Fernando Haddad (Workers' Party) 29.3%
Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labour Party) 12.5%
Geraldo Alckmin (Brazilian Social Democracy Party) 4.8%
 
Jul 2016
229
Just outside the Rust Belt
#5
There will be a run off. I doubt Haddad can drive together all the people against Bolsonaro, after all of 20% of the vote, theoretically he only needs 5%. Likely Haddad has to persuade some of the people who originally voted for Bolsonaro that he is a better candidate, I doubt that is going to happen lest Bolsonaro's energy makes sure he is unable to response to vicious attack ads.
 
Apr 2012
926
The Netherlands
#6
This one really has me confused, even more so then with normal populist. Bolsonaro isn't pseudo charming like Farage, he's not a cartoon character like Trump and he doesn't have a proven track record of base economic competence like Erdogan. Its Duterte and his death squads who's closest to Bolsonaro with his love for torture and dictatorship, and I just don't understand why people vote for death squads and torture.

You could argue that people are either that devoted to the right or that wary of the left but that still doesn't explain things. When one candidate advocates for torture and his running mate says they'll just do a coup if they lose then it stops being a partisan issue, then right wing or left wing should suddenly become very unimportant compared to the existence of your democracy and human rights.
 
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tomar

Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
12,204
#7
This one really has me confused, even more so then with normal populist. Bolsonaro isn't pseudo charming like Farage, he's not a cartoon character like Trump and he doesn't have a proven track record of base economic competence like Erdogan. Its Duterte and his death squads who's closest to Bolsonaro with his love for torture and dictatorship, and I just don't understand why people vote for death squads and torture.

You could argue that people are either that devoted to the right or that wary of the left but that still doesn't explain things. When one candidate advocates for torture and his running mate says they'll just do a coup if they lose then it stops being a partisan issue, then right wing or left wing should suddenly become very unimportant compared to the existence of your democracy and human rights.
I have not been following Brazil very closely, but with one leftist president impeached and another one tried for corruption it is not "natural" for voters to look for alternatives ? People often move from one extreme to another, especially when disappointed...
 
Jun 2012
2,914
Brazil
#8
This one really has me confused, even more so then with normal populist. Bolsonaro isn't pseudo charming like Farage, he's not a cartoon character like Trump and he doesn't have a proven track record of base economic competence like Erdogan. Its Duterte and his death squads who's closest to Bolsonaro with his love for torture and dictatorship, and I just don't understand why people vote for death squads and torture.

You could argue that people are either that devoted to the right or that wary of the left but that still doesn't explain things. When one candidate advocates for torture and his running mate says they'll just do a coup if they lose then it stops being a partisan issue, then right wing or left wing should suddenly become very unimportant compared to the existence of your democracy and human rights.
Tomar gave a good answer a lot of people are very disappointed, and a huge problem the parties that were part of the corruption scandals, not a single one at least made a statement saying they would try to change and go to the better, to the contrary the party of the guy that will dispute the next turn with bolsonaro, which is part of the corruption scandals, said they will put the justice under his control, not only that they will try to take the power, different from elections, add to that brazilians were not very democratic, and with 63.000 brazilians murdered by year not very adept to human rights, both candidates, that will dispute the next turn, were icons of disrespect for the law and examples of bad politicians.
 
Apr 2012
926
The Netherlands
#9
I have not been following Brazil very closely, but with one leftist president impeached and another one tried for corruption it is not "natural" for voters to look for alternatives ? People often move from one extreme to another, especially when disappointed...
The problem with that is that this guy doesn't seem to be much of an alternative. Despite the populist tone he's very much part of the establishment as well and he himself is corrupt just like the others. And aside from not being any different than the politicians his fans claim to hate he brings with him his very own brand of crazy. Voting him into office to fight corruption doesn't make sense because you just get the same corrupt politician with even worse traits to go with it.

And the question must be asked...is corruption really that big of a deal in comparison? Its certainly a big problem as it wastes tax payer money, rewards amoral behavior and enriches the unworthy but is mere corruption really that much worse than the end of your democracy? Are shady military men able to torture people really preferable than just your average corrupt politician?

The thing about corruption is that while its bad its also unlikely the lives of citizens will be directly affected by it. The death of democracy and the seizure of your human rights however are able to affect people much more easily.
 
Feb 2012
3,643
Portugal
#10
The problem with that is that this guy doesn't seem to be much of an alternative. Despite the populist tone he's very much part of the establishment as well and he himself is corrupt just like the others. And aside from not being any different than the politicians his fans claim to hate he brings with him his very own brand of crazy. Voting him into office to fight corruption doesn't make sense because you just get the same corrupt politician with even worse traits to go with it.

And the question must be asked...is corruption really that big of a deal in comparison? Its certainly a big problem as it wastes tax payer money, rewards amoral behavior and enriches the unworthy but is mere corruption really that much worse than the end of your democracy? Are shady military men able to torture people really preferable than just your average corrupt politician?

The thing about corruption is that while its bad its also unlikely the lives of citizens will be directly affected by it. The death of democracy and the seizure of your human rights however are able to affect people much more easily.
I don't know if you speak Portuguese and are able to see Bolsonaro's videos. It is not difficult to understand why people like him. The portrait by the media has little to do with himself in his own words. Basically he is promising people fiscal austerity, economic liberalism, he has a liberal economist from chicago university for the economy, he wants to privatize non strategic companies and more security and he also has gained a lot of religious support namely among evangelicals. And the former are issues Brazilians complain regularly on the Internet. People are fed up with socialism and the crisis in Venezuela might have given the last blow on the ideology. The main doubt concerning him is if he will deliver or be able to deliver, it's not easy to tackle special interests.
 
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