Can Japan invade the US had they change their Asian strategy

Jan 2015
150
new york
The POD of this topic will be the marco polo bridge incident.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Polo_Bridge_Incident
please also read up on the following person.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Jingwei (lets abbreviate to JWW)
he will be my main character for this topic.

by the time of pearl harbor in our time line, the japanese are already too deeply involve in china. peacing china out is meaningless as you when all in two years prior.
ATL
following the marco polo incident. both side decided not to escalate the incident and the nationalist government send a high ranking official to settle a peace treaty with the japan. that official happen to be Wang_Jingwei.(our timeline, he had a fallen out with chiang and defect to japan in 1939, i need him to defect early here). during the meeting, japan manage to entice Wang_Jingwei with a generous offer. he would lead a provisional government friendly with japan. in exchange japan would gave him direct control of chinese land under japanese occupation ( minus manchuria and formosa).
Jww would provide japan with raw material and manpower while japan send back finish goods.
the provisonal government under JWW would attempt to establish legitimacy and wrestle control of more city over to him. it is a slow process and the japanese troops are more restrain in this timeline. they are not seen as invaders but as advisor.


With a friendly government that control most of the coastal city, japanese businessmen begin setting up manufacture to boost the need of the two nation. an alliance is also reach with thailand in that they would receive land from malay and indochina following the end of the war. japan would also send businessmen to industrialize the nation.

spy are send to mexico to accumulate supply for a eventual invasion of the us. while retired military officers are given land in south america paid for by the japanese government in secret. these officers are task with two mission.
the first one is to recruit and train the local Japanese immigrant. the second mission is to forward as much material to japan as possible.

around december of 1939
over in Indochina, japanese seek out a capable local commander name ho chi ming. (i am not very good with vietnanese history, so if any one got a better guy please tell me, for now HO is going to be a placeholder). rather than sending japanese troop directly, IJA send their troops into vietnam as civilian and have them enlist as vietnamese revolutionary. ( basically what china did in korean war.) soon after the Vietnamese declare their independence from france and ally to japan.

in the Philippine something similar happen. since japan can not afford to piss the us off at the moment, the rebels do not declare their independence and instead settle for a status quo where they control half of the nation.

an alliance is reach with thailand in that they would receive land from malay and indochina following the end of the war. japan would also send businessmen to industrialize the nation.

under this set up do you think Ruthie's invasion is possible. i am not counting on something i have no control over.
 

Lord Fairfax

Ad Honorem
Jan 2015
3,396
Changing trains at Terrapin Station...
I can't really see any scenario that works, as long as Britain is still in the war. The shipping & logistical requirements are just too great to overcome.
 

Belgarion

Ad Honorem
Jul 2011
6,733
Australia
Even if Japan organised a relatively peaceful takeover of the Asian nations, built up an industrial empire and had all the resources available that were lost in the fighting, there would still not be enough logistic capability to invade the US. The sea distances involved, the size of the US itself and the US industrial capacity are obstacles that cannot be overcome.

Of course the Japanese did invade US soil, the Aleutians, and in the OP scenario they could certainly conduct low level commando operations and harassment, but an actual invasion is not on the cards.
 

Edric Streona

Ad Honorem
Feb 2016
4,460
Japan
No. At the very best she could launch coastal raids.

Hawaii of course was a viable target. But mainland USA impossible for any other nation.
 
Jun 2017
2,958
Connecticut
I believe the consensus the Japanese were doomed the moment they attacked Pearl Harbor is very flawed. Japan had a window to win the war and WWII was not a suicide mission for them. That being said, the consensus here is correct, there is no WWI scenario where Japan can successfully invade the US mainland, Japan winning the war would have involved consolidating control and air superiority in the Pacific not an invasion of the US itself. I guess there's an asterisk there because I do think they could have taken Hawaii if you count that and bombed the west coast but actually invaded with land forces? No that is a delusional pipe dream.

Maybe in some future 21st or 22nd century war where Japan still controls industrialized Indochina, Indonesia, China and the Philippines as the consequence of WWII.
 

aggienation

Ad Honorem
Jul 2016
9,738
USA
I believe the consensus the Japanese were doomed the moment they attacked Pearl Harbor is very flawed. Japan had a window to win the war and WWII was not a suicide mission for them. That being said, the consensus here is correct, there is no WWI scenario where Japan can successfully invade the US mainland, Japan winning the war would have involved consolidating control and air superiority in the Pacific not an invasion of the US itself. I guess there's an asterisk there because I do think they could have taken Hawaii if you count that and bombed the west coast but actually invaded with land forces? No that is a delusional pipe dream.

Maybe in some future 21st or 22nd century war where Japan still controls industrialized Indochina, Indonesia, China and the Philippines as the consequence of WWII.
What was the window to win WW2 for Japan?
 

redcoat

Ad Honorem
Nov 2010
7,803
Stockport Cheshire UK
I believe the consensus the Japanese were doomed the moment they attacked Pearl Harbor is very flawed. Japan had a window to win the war and WWII was not a suicide mission for them..
The only way for the Japanese to win was with a collapse of US political will and civilian morale, and I just can't see a situation where the Japanese can achieve this.
 

Kevinmeath

Ad Honoris
May 2011
14,020
Navan, Ireland
The only way for the Japanese to win was with a collapse of US political will and civilian morale, and I just can't see a situation where the Japanese can achieve this.
In fact wasn't that what the Japanese hoped would happen?

Weak willed Americans would wilt under pressure from the morally superior Japanese.

Well that worked.

Infact if I remember correctly it was a theme of the 1930's nationalists that democracy was weak and inherently cowardly compared to 'strong leaders'.
 

Belgarion

Ad Honorem
Jul 2011
6,733
Australia
In fact wasn't that what the Japanese hoped would happen?

Weak willed Americans would wilt under pressure from the morally superior Japanese.

Well that worked.

Infact if I remember correctly it was a theme of the 1930's nationalists that democracy was weak and inherently cowardly compared to 'strong leaders'.

Yes, this was the mistake made by all the totalitarian powers in the 30, that democracy was inherently flawed and weakened the will of its citizens. Japan truly believed that a blow at Pearl Harbour would shock the weak willed Americans and keep them quiet while Japan had its way in the Pacific.
 

Scaeva

Ad Honorem
Oct 2012
5,630
Even if Japan organised a relatively peaceful takeover of the Asian nations, built up an industrial empire and had all the resources available that were lost in the fighting, there would still not be enough logistic capability to invade the US. The sea distances involved, the size of the US itself and the US industrial capacity are obstacles that cannot be overcome.

Of course the Japanese did invade US soil, the Aleutians, and in the OP scenario they could certainly conduct low level commando operations and harassment, but an actual invasion is not on the cards.
This.

Japan might have attempted an invasion of Hawaii (an operation that would have a high probability of failure) or occupied parts of Alaska, but an invasion of the U.S. mainland would have been well beyond it's capabilities even if the conditions put forward in the original post were present.
 
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