China without One Child Policy?

Nov 2014
457
ph
What are the consequences of China not implementing the one child policy, since the top brass in Peking decided correctly that the Chinese tfr will start to fall once per capita income increases, even without a one child policy? So basically you have a China that has a population of 1.6 billion instead of 1.4 billion,
 

mark87

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
2,117
Santiago de Chile
One interesting consequence (long term) that I read about relatively recently is the massive problem of a generation of Chinese men who are low on the social scale so to speak and will arguably never find a partner in any meaningful sense, sociologists and the likes are quite worried. Since traditional Chinese culture stipulated boys were more coveted than girls as babies a lot of the One Child Policy has led to a lot more boys than girls in China. Another interesting effect is that there's a whole generation of children who are ''off the grid'' so to speak since one could have more than one child but said child would not be taken care of legally by the state, or so I understand.
Social engineering always seems to cause these unforeseen consequences it seems, and i'm sure there are more that we don't know about.
 
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AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,597
Italy, Lago Maggiore
Yes, the loss of natural quantitative balance between the genders can generate deep social problems. The reasons are easy to intuit.

And this problem is not only Chinese. If China has created the present situation on the base of a "rational" policy of demographic control, India has created a very similar situation on the base of social and traditional values. They substantially prefer male sons and male heirs.

The males in excess are about 34,000,000 in China and 36,000,000 in India. A total of 70,000,000 ... more than the entire population of Italy!

Take a look at this article: Too many men: China and India battle with the consequences
 

HackneyedScribe

Ad Honorem
Feb 2011
6,612
It's using their large population as a measuring stick, rather than the proportion of the population.
In China 48.47% of the population are female.
In India it's 48.18%
In Saudi Arabia it's 42.93%

For the more serious ones, in the UAE it's 27.6% and in Qatar it's 24.93%.
So the news that's going around about/implying sexually starved males gathering together and starting riots/rebellions is kind of ridiculous. Throughout most of history there's a gender imbalance because of infanticide and how male kids were given preferential treatment over female kids. How many rebellions was caused by rebels not being able to get any?
 
Jul 2019
193
Ghana
For the more serious ones, in the UAE it's 27.6% and in Qatar it's 24.93%.
Those extreme figures are the result of huge influxes of male migrant workers. If the imbalance was to be found among the native Arabs, social unrest would probably be more likely, but it isn't. They have the same sex ratio as everyone else at birth and 0-14 year olds. Although I believe it is more likely that natives would simply "import" foreign brides in wealthier societies, which is a practice on the rise in countries like China and South Korea, or emigrate from poorer societies where such imbalances occur.
 

HackneyedScribe

Ad Honorem
Feb 2011
6,612
That is true, but the result is the same. I don't see how sexually starved immigrants would be less prone to rioting than sexually starved locals. In general, just because a guy can't find a girlfriend doesn't make him somehow significantly more prone to rioting or rebelling. I'm not seeing it.
 
Jul 2019
193
Ghana
That is true, but the result is the same. I don't see how sexually starved immigrants would be less prone to rioting than sexually starved locals. In general, just because a guy can't find a girlfriend doesn't make him somehow significantly more prone to rioting or rebelling. I'm not seeing it.
I actually don't have a strong opinion on the topic. Complex questions for which I don't really have an answer.