China without One Child Policy?

Menshevik

Ad Honorem
Dec 2012
9,503
here
Yes, but I wonder if perhaps China’s situation is unique due to cultural factors? Perhaps a one child policy plays out differently in the United States or some western or Northern European country?

I’m inferring, perhaps wrongly, that the OP may be suggesting that what is happening in China is indicative of what would happen universally if such a policy were enacted.
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,599
Italy, Lago Maggiore
Yes, but I wonder if perhaps China’s situation is unique due to cultural factors? Perhaps a one child policy plays out differently in the United States or some western or Northern European country?

I’m inferring, perhaps wrongly, that the OP may be suggesting that what is happening in China is indicative of what would happen universally if such a policy were enacted.
There are alternatives to the One Child Policy [for example to distribute contraceptives and provide a god sex ed to the general population, this usually means that women are at least able to avoid an unwanted pregnancy, but this is obviously less effective as method of demographic control], but as policy of demographic control it can generate distortions in the population. Statistics say that families prefere a son to a daughter. Imagine that present Chinese policy says that in rural areas families can have a second baby if the first one is a female ...

In any case the Chinese policy is moderated [a good part of the families is allowed to have two children].

Personally I do prefer the social dynamics that are reducing the growth of the population in our countries: substantially the reasons why Western families have got a few children [in comparison with other cultures] are economical and social. There are families who make a choice: second child or mortgage to buy a house? Then the emancipation of the women and the diffusion of a free and educated sexual life have changed the way families have created.

Imagine that in Italy it was a crime to divorce untill early 70's ... There was even a referendum to allow Italians to divorce. Not to add that the Catholic culture considered the usage of contraceptives a sin.
 

HackneyedScribe

Ad Honorem
Feb 2011
6,612
There are alternatives to the One Child Policy [for example to distribute contraceptives and provide a god sex ed to the general population, this usually means that women are at least able to avoid an unwanted pregnancy, but this is obviously less effective as method of demographic control]
Contraceptives are provided for free in China. The problem is there's still a lot of hard to reach villages in which they don't get access.
 
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VHS

Ad Honorem
Dec 2015
4,861
Florania
Contraceptives are provided for free in China. The problem is there's still a lot of hard to reach villages in which they don't get access.
Thomas Sowell talked about the cultural lag still exists even when transportation has broken the barriers.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,558
SoCal
It's using their large population as a measuring stick, rather than the proportion of the population.
In China 48.47% of the population are female.
In India it's 48.18%
In Saudi Arabia it's 42.93%

For the more serious ones, in the UAE it's 27.6% and in Qatar it's 24.93%.
So the news that's going around about/implying sexually starved males gathering together and starting riots/rebellions is kind of ridiculous. Throughout most of history there's a gender imbalance because of infanticide and how male kids were given preferential treatment over female kids. How many rebellions was caused by rebels not being able to get any?
Is the Chinese data actually accurate if there is a possibility of some Chinese children living off the grid, though?

What are the consequences of China not implementing the one child policy, since the top brass in Peking decided correctly that the Chinese tfr will start to fall once per capita income increases, even without a one child policy? So basically you have a China that has a population of 1.6 billion instead of 1.4 billion,
China would be a bit larger and there might be less of a problem with imbalanced sex ratios at birth, but otherwise, China is probably going to develop much the same way as it did in real life. I really don't see having an additional 200-300 million people as being significantly crippling to China. If anything, it might help with the Sinicization of China's peripheral regions.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,558
SoCal
That is true, but the result is the same. I don't see how sexually starved immigrants would be less prone to rioting than sexually starved locals. In general, just because a guy can't find a girlfriend doesn't make him somehow significantly more prone to rioting or rebelling. I'm not seeing it.
Eh, it is probably possible for an involuntary incel to experience significantly higher dissatisfaction and frustration with life, society, and/or the government.
 

Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,143
Australia
The above comparison is misleading. If you look at the figures in more depth, the Saudi demographics are completely different to the Chinese demographics. In Saudi Arabia there is minimal sex selection going on while the children are young. The percentage of females in the population start at 49.28% in the 0-4 age group and is still 49.12% in the 15-19 age group. Once a female reaches 20, however, the percentage declines rapidly from 47.36% (20-24) to 32.07% (50-54). So it seems that the Saudis are killing a lot of women once they reach adulthood. But, during the time in which most males are looking for a partner, there are plenty of females to choose from.

China on the other hand, is engaging in sex selection to a far greater degree. The percentage of females is 46.6% right from birth. During the time in which males are typically looking for a partner, there are far less females available.

In UAE and Qatar 70-80% of the population consists of a temporary imported workforce, which is heavily skewed towards males. The ratio of male to female citizens is closer to 50-50. However, rape is rampant in both of those countries. Women rarely report it because they get jailed for "illicit fornication", or their families disown them for bringing shame, or they are forced to marry their attacker.


 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,558
SoCal
The above comparison is misleading. If you look at the figures in more depth, the Saudi demographics are completely different to the Chinese demographics. In Saudi Arabia there is minimal sex selection going on while the children are young. The percentage of females in the population start at 49.28% in the 0-4 age group and is still 49.12% in the 15-19 age group. Once a female reaches 20, however, the percentage declines rapidly from 47.36% (20-24) to 32.07% (50-54). So it seems that the Saudis are killing a lot of women once they reach adulthood. But, during the time in which most males are looking for a partner, there are plenty of females to choose from.

China on the other hand, is engaging in sex selection to a far greater degree. The percentage of females is 46.6% right from birth. During the time in which males are typically looking for a partner, there are far less females available.

In UAE and Qatar 70-80% of the population consists of a temporary imported workforce, which is heavily skewed towards males. The ratio of male to female citizens is closer to 50-50. However, rape is rampant in both of those countries. Women rarely report it because they get jailed for "illicit fornication", or their families disown them for bringing shame, or they are forced to marry their attacker.


I don't think that the Saudis are actually killing their women en masse. Rather, I think that the much more likely explanation is that the Saudis are importing a lot of adult male guest workers but very few female guest workers (of any age).
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,558
SoCal
Yes, but I wonder if perhaps China’s situation is unique due to cultural factors? Perhaps a one child policy plays out differently in the United States or some western or Northern European country?

I’m inferring, perhaps wrongly, that the OP may be suggesting that what is happening in China is indicative of what would happen universally if such a policy were enacted.
Well, I'm presuming that the West is less misogynistic than China is--so, less willing to engage in things such as sex-selective abortions and female infanticide on a mass scale.
 
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Dan Howard

Ad Honorem
Aug 2014
5,143
Australia
I don't think that the Saudis are actually killing their women en masse. Rather, I think that the much more likely explanation is that the Saudis are importing a lot of adult male guest workers but very few female guest workers (of any age).
That makes more sense. The discrepancies in Qatar and UAE are for the same reason.
 
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