China without One Child Policy?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
That makes more sense. The discrepancies in Qatar and UAE are for the same reason.
Yeah, if there was mass femicide in Saudi Arabia and other oil-rich Arab countries, then we would have probably already heard about this by now.
 

HackneyedScribe

Ad Honorem
Feb 2011
6,612
The above comparison is misleading. If you look at the figures in more depth, the Saudi demographics are completely different to the Chinese demographics. In Saudi Arabia there is minimal sex selection going on while the children are young. The percentage of females in the population start at 49.28% in the 0-4 age group and is still 49.12% in the 15-19 age group. Once a female reaches 20, however, the percentage declines rapidly from 47.36% (20-24) to 32.07% (50-54). So it seems that the Saudis are killing a lot of women once they reach adulthood. But, during the time in which most males are looking for a partner, there are plenty of females to choose from.

China on the other hand, is engaging in sex selection to a far greater degree. The percentage of females is 46.6% right from birth. During the time in which males are typically looking for a partner, there are far less females available.

In UAE and Qatar 70-80% of the population consists of a temporary imported workforce, which is heavily skewed towards males. The ratio of male to female citizens is closer to 50-50. However, rape is rampant in both of those countries. Women rarely report it because they get jailed for "illicit fornication", or their families disown them for bringing shame, or they are forced to marry their attacker.


Minus what Sundiata1/Futurist stated about Saudi demographics (they purposely import tons of younger working men, ergo there's still a very skewed sex ratio for those of reproductive age), the often touted claim of China having some 30 million more men than women is misleading too. If we go by your standard and look at the Chinese census by AGE we can see that the census is faulty.
In 2000, 0-9 year old girls make up 73,179,059 people, 10-19 year old girls make up 110,204,889 people.
In 2010, 10-19 year old girls make up 82,625,469 people, 20-29 year old girls make up 113,580,759 people.
Which means:
In 2000, out of the 73 million 0-9 year old girls, when they grew to 10-19 years old somehow there's ~10 million more of them (male population of the same age group grew by ~6 million).
In 2000, out of the 110.2 million 10-19 year old girls, when they grew to 20-29 years old there's 3.6 million more of them (male population of the same age group shrank by ~4 million within that same time).
So sex ratio would fall from 1.05 to 1.02 when adjusting for this.

Explanation: Families were hiding their female kids from the census in order to birth more kids (and male kids were also unregistered to a much lesser degree). Once those girls start aging it becomes harder and harder to hide them, they start being reported in the census. Of course, mainstream news make it sound as if they were being killed off in the millions per year as infanticide rather than simply hiding from the census or sex selective abortion. Which is retarded, there would be dead baby bodies popping up all over the place. Infanticide means the death penalty, and it's a harder crime to hide because you have to hide a dead body. The alternative is not only easier (in so many ways), but not a big deal if caught. <---- That's the real problem, invisible kids can't go to school and they remain uneducated. The news twist the real problem into something else entirely.

Source:
<---Got to download their Excel sheet for this one
 
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mariusj

Ad Honorem
Aug 2015
2,057
Los Angeles
What are the consequences of China not implementing the one child policy, since the top brass in Peking decided correctly that the Chinese tfr will start to fall once per capita income increases, even without a one child policy? So basically you have a China that has a population of 1.6 billion instead of 1.4 billion,
What's your source?

My grandfather has 5 children 2 sons and 3 daughters, and he died fighting in the Civil War.

He was from a very well off family. He runs a pork business on the Yangtse River. My father as a child had a nanny who can speak English, and he lived in a garden house with cars.

How do you separate the casualty and correlation between westernization and the decline of birthrate from the cultural level of influence? What is to say in the 60s the Chinese people would have less kids because people made 30 yuan to 35 yuan?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
What's your source?

My grandfather has 5 children 2 sons and 3 daughters, and he died fighting in the Civil War.

He was from a very well off family. He runs a pork business on the Yangtse River. My father as a child had a nanny who can speak English, and he lived in a garden house with cars.

How do you separate the casualty and correlation between westernization and the decline of birthrate from the cultural level of influence? What is to say in the 60s the Chinese people would have less kids because people made 30 yuan to 35 yuan?
FWIW, the Chinese Civil War ended about 30 years before the introduction of China's One Child Policy.
 

Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
6,096
What's your source?

My grandfather has 5 children 2 sons and 3 daughters, and he died fighting in the Civil War.

He was from a very well off family. He runs a pork business on the Yangtse River. My father as a child had a nanny who can speak English, and he lived in a garden house with cars.

How do you separate the casualty and correlation between westernization and the decline of birthrate from the cultural level of influence? What is to say in the 60s the Chinese people would have less kids because people made 30 yuan to 35 yuan?
That's consistent with the population data for China according to which the fertility rate (children/female) in the 1930's-40's was pretty consistently over 5. Consequently the Chinese doubled in 30 years from 1950-80, from 500 million to 1 billion.

The policy was implemented in 1978 with that steep rise as the backdrop, and with then current scenarios of continued exponential Chinese population growth – i.e. presumably 2 billion in 2010, 4 billion in 2040 etc. Or collapse, famine, pestilence and death galore at some point – as it was at the time presumed – unless something was done about the situation.

Then it didn't help that, as one commentator has observed, the Chinese population control policies were essentially thought up and implemented by engineers with more experience of missile technology, assuming set inputs will produce set outputs in a mechanical fashion – except the producing units are the vaginas of female Chinese, so not quite the same.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
That's consistent with the population data for China according to which the fertility rate (children/female) in the 1930's-40's was pretty consistently over 5. Consequently the Chinese doubled in 30 years from 1950-80, from 500 million to 1 billion.

The policy was implemented in 1978 with that steep rise as the backdrop, and with then current scenarios of continued exponential Chinese population growth – i.e. presumably 2 billion in 2010, 4 billion in 2040 etc. Or collapse, famine, pestilence and death galore at some point – as it was at the time presumed – unless something was done about the situation.

Then it didn't help that, as one commentator has observed, the Chinese population control policies were essentially thought up and implemented by engineers with more experience of missile technology, assuming set inputs will produce set outputs in a mechanical fashion – except the producing units are the vaginas of female Chinese, so not quite the same.
The last part here made me giggle. :lol: