Could a prosperous, non-Bolshevik Russia have eventually had a serious illegal immigration problem?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,857
SoCal
#1
Here in the United States, we have a serious problem with illegal immigration. We currently have about 11 million illegal immigrants living in the U.S. and these immigrants also have U.S.-born children who are automatic U.S. citizens due to birthright citizenship. Illegal immigration is a large part of the reason as to why exactly the U.S. has such a large Latino population right now. This illegal immigration itself combined with the U.S. birth of their children and the fact that their children or these illegal immigrants themselves (if they will ever become legalized and become U.S. citizens, that is) can sponsor their close relatives from other countries (so that their close relatives could immigrate to the U.S.) all contributes to a higher U.S. population growth rate than would have otherwise been the case.

In turn, all of this got me thinking--if Russia could have escaped Bolshevism (for instance, by there being no or a later World War I) and become extremely prosperous during the 20th century, would it have also eventually become a hub for illegal immigrants like the U.S. is? Just like the U.S., Russia has extremely long borders with neighboring countries. Also, like the U.S. in real life, Russia in this scenario will border various neighboring countries which will be poorer than Russia itself is (in some cases--such as Afghanistan--probably much poorer than Russia itself is). In turn, this makes me wonder--could a lot of people have illegally immigrated to Russia in this scenario?

Also, if so, what would Russia do with these people? Would it deport them? Offer them amnesty? Build a big, beautiful wall on its southern borders?

In addition to this, on a related note, how much legal immigration do you think Russia is going to have in the late 20th and 21st centuries in this scenario?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 
Apr 2017
1,169
U.S.A.
#2
It would have to be much more prosperous, peaceful and democratic than its ever been in history for afghans, Persians, mongols and Chinese to immigrate there. As for how such a different Russia would handle it, hard to say.
As for how a more realistic version of Russia would handle it, there is precedent for this. Russia doesn't have too much immigration to the country but they do have movement of peoples around the country. An example being minorities exiled to Siberia in the 50's returning to their home republics. Russia sometimes interferes with this by harassment, violence and intimidation.
I believe I heard of Circassians from the middle east trying to return to the Caucasus after the cold war but Russian harassment interfered with it.
Another example would be how eastern Europe is handling the migrants moving through their countries to western Europe.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,857
SoCal
#3
It would have to be much more prosperous, peaceful and democratic than its ever been in history for afghans, Persians, mongols and Chinese to immigrate there.
You forgot to mention Koreans, Uyghurs, and Indians here (and if there's no partition of India in this scenario, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis are likewise going to be considered Indians).

As for how such a different Russia would handle it, hard to say.
Any guesses?

As for how a more realistic version of Russia would handle it, there is precedent for this. Russia doesn't have too much immigration to the country but they do have movement of peoples around the country. An example being minorities exiled to Siberia in the 50's returning to their home republics. Russia sometimes interferes with this by harassment, violence and intimidation.
I believe I heard of Circassians from the middle east trying to return to the Caucasus after the cold war but Russian harassment interfered with it.
Another example would be how eastern Europe is handling the migrants moving through their countries to western Europe.
I didn't know about Circassians attempting to return to Russia. I'll have to research this and read more about this.

Anyway, though, it's very possible that a history of Communism is the reason that Eastern Europe is so conservative on things such as immigration right now:

PEW Confirms “Soviet Freezer” Theory

In this scenario, Eastern Europe doesn't have a history of Communism.
 

AlpinLuke

Ad Honoris
Oct 2011
25,882
Italy, Lago Maggiore
#6
Before of visiting Norway I thought that cold climate was a barrier for immigration from warm countries ... not at all. In Norway I found guys from Portugal, Pakistan, Senegal ... I had occasion to discuss with a Portugal family who manages a restaurant in a Norwegian city: they do suffer the climate, but they gain good money. Coming from the Alps, for me Norwegian winter is not that terrible [I live near mountain glaciers ...], but for guys coming from the Portuguese coast ... it's tremendous.

In any case humans are adaptive, so that I guess that Russia, with its natural resources and opportunities [in East Russia today we see a great cooperation of Chinese corporations to exploit the resources of that incredibly rich and frozen region, just to say] would have attracted a lot of migrants.

Today immigration is the main cause of the demographic growth of the Russian Federation: there is a process of return of the Russian population that Stalin and his buddies sent abroad to "Russify" the former Soviet Republics. And when these Russians abroad are too lazy to come back ... Putin conquests a piece of a foreign country [like in the case of Crimea].
 
Likes: Futurist
Apr 2017
1,169
U.S.A.
#7
Also, what are your thoughts on legal immigration to Russia in this scenario?
In Russia there is currently a fear of muslims becoming the majority of the population. Some xenophobes harass, kill and persecute minority peoples to drive them out of Russia (or at very least back to their republics). If immigrants started coming to Russia in large numbers, something like this would probably happen.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,857
SoCal
#8
Before of visiting Norway I thought that cold climate was a barrier for immigration from warm countries ... not at all. In Norway I found guys from Portugal, Pakistan, Senegal ... I had occasion to discuss with a Portugal family who manages a restaurant in a Norwegian city: they do suffer the climate, but they gain good money. Coming from the Alps, for me Norwegian winter is not that terrible [I live near mountain glaciers ...], but for guys coming from the Portuguese coast ... it's tremendous.

In any case humans are adaptive, so that I guess that Russia, with its natural resources and opportunities [in East Russia today we see a great cooperation of Chinese corporations to exploit the resources of that incredibly rich and frozen region, just to say] would have attracted a lot of migrants.
Yeah, a lot of people are willing to adjust to the weather after moving. For instance, think of Iraqis, Syrians, or Somalis in Sweden or Somalis in Minnesota.

The one thing that I can curious about is whether a Russia which has 400-500 million people is actually able to sustain a lot of immigrants. I mean, what would the carrying capacity of Russia be with modern technology if it was able to keep all of the territories of the Russian Empire other than Poland and perhaps Finland?

Today immigration is the main cause of the demographic growth of the Russian Federation: there is a process of return of the Russian population that Stalin and his buddies sent abroad to "Russify" the former Soviet Republics. And when these Russians abroad are too lazy to come back ... Putin conquests a piece of a foreign country [like in the case of Crimea].
Yeah, the return of Russians to Russia has been a positive thing for Russia after the Soviet collapse. That said, though, it's not going to be an issue in this scenario since almost all Russians are already going to be within Russia's borders (since Russia would probably get to keep most of its empire if it escapes Bolshevism).

As for Russian revanchism, that's probably not going to be an issue in this scenario either.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
17,857
SoCal
#9
In Russia there is currently a fear of muslims becoming the majority of the population. Some xenophobes harass, kill and persecute minority peoples to drive them out of Russia (or at very least back to their republics). If immigrants started coming to Russia in large numbers, something like this would probably happen.
Would Russians have been as afraid of Hindus and East Asians as they would be of Muslims, though?
 

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