Could ISIS be similar to the Bolsheviks?

Mar 2014
8,881
Canterbury
#42
Also, if you don't mind me asking, what exactly do you think the future of Iraq, Syria, and ISIS will be, DB?
An unnecessarily-staggered and fraught partition into the relevant religious and ethnic delineations. Unfortunately no-one took the chance to do this even though the writing was on the wall, so now it looks like ISIS will be the catalyst for this. It may simmer into a less-diabolical government when its doomsday prophecy doesn't come to pass.

Oh, and off-topic, but can I please ask you some additional questions on your user page, DB?
Go ahead :) It'll be a while before I can answer, though: I'm a bit tangled up in revision for an exam.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,495
SoCal
#43
An unnecessarily-staggered and fraught partition into the relevant religious and ethnic delineations. Unfortunately no-one took the chance to do this even though the writing was on the wall, so now it looks like ISIS will be the catalyst for this. It may simmer into a less-diabolical government when its doomsday prophecy doesn't come to pass.
By "less diabolical government," do you mean that some of Saddam Hussein's henchmen who currently work for ISIS could stage a coup against the religiously fanatical leadership of ISIS?

Go ahead :) It'll be a while before I can answer, though: I'm a bit tangled up in revision for an exam.
OK. Also, though, good luck with your exam studies! :)

Also, out of curiosity--when exactly is this exam of yours?
 
Mar 2014
8,881
Canterbury
#44
By "less diabolical government," do you mean that some of Saddam Hussein's henchmen who currently work for ISIS could stage a coup against the religiously fanatical leadership of ISIS?
Pretty much. ISIS is deadly serious about religion, but structurally the religion just covers its Ba'athist bones that could easily resurface if commitment to the religious minutiae ebbs. (As it will, when the prophecy comes to naught and ISIS is forced to make practical decisions in response to challenges that go outside the scope of 7th century texts.)

OK. Also, though, good luck with your exam studies! :)

Also, out of curiosity--when exactly is this exam of yours?
Thank you :)

It's in thirty-five hours' time.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,495
SoCal
#45
Pretty much. ISIS is deadly serious about religion, but structurally the religion just covers its Ba'athist bones that could easily resurface if commitment to the religious minutiae ebbs. (As it will, when the prophecy comes to naught and ISIS is forced to make practical decisions in response to challenges.)
What if ISIS is going to be unable to implement this prophecy (as in, by failing to get the Italians to fight in Dabiq), though? After all, in such a case, ISIS's opponents wouldn't be able to claim that ISIS's prophecy came to caught.

Thank you :)

It's in thirty-five hours' time.
OK. Anyway, again, good luck! :D

Also, though, as a side note, I strongly value the massive amount of knowledge that you have on Islam-related topics! :)
 
Mar 2014
8,881
Canterbury
#46
What if ISIS is going to be unable to implement this prophecy (as in, by failing to get the Italians to fight in Dabiq), though? After all, in such a case, ISIS's opponents wouldn't be able to claim that ISIS's prophecy came to caught
True, it could go both ways depending on whether someone reads ISIS's arrival as signalling the apocalypse in their lifetime or later on. There are other details to the prophecy (that have attached to it over the centuries) that mean ISIS could potentially be split on this issue. The more pragmatic Ba'athist architects will win, if that organisation has any worldly sense left at all.

Also, though, as a side note, I strongly value the massive amount of knowledge that you have on Islam-related topics! :)
Thank you :) But I wouldn't really call it massive: just the result of ironically reading about Islamism and early Islam on planes, as a reverse-psychology calming trick.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
13,495
SoCal
#47
True, it could go both ways depending on whether someone reads ISIS's arrival as signalling the apocalypse in their lifetime or later on. There are other details to the prophecy (that have attached to it over the centuries) that mean ISIS could potentially be split on this issue. The more pragmatic Ba'athist architects will win, if that organisation has any worldly sense left at all.
OK, and thank you very much for this explanation! :)

Thank you :) But I wouldn't really call it massive: just the result of ironically reading about Islamism and early Islam on planes, as a reverse-psychology calming trick.
Reverse psychology calming trick?
 

civfanatic

Ad Honorem
Oct 2012
3,259
Des Moines, Iowa
#48
The Bolsheviks were intelligent and seem to have known what they were doing. ISIS, on the other hand, seems to be acting quite erratically (some would so even irrationally) without any coherent plan that I can see. They are pissing off literally everyone in the region - Kurds, Shi'ites, Christians, Alawites, the Syrian government, and even the governments of some fellow Sunni states. I doubt ISIS is being led by any mastermind like Vladimir Lenin; there is no way that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (who is probably just an ineffectual figurehead) has his leadership or organizational skills.
 

Otranto

Ad Honorem
May 2013
2,083
Netherlands
#50
Wouldn't the Italian military be extremely capable of defeating ISIS, though?
The Italian military can't even remove the Islamic State from Libya, only 300 miles away. It would take them six to eight months just to deploy something resembling a force. According to news reports from last year, they have only 5000 deployable troops. If that's accurate, they are extremely incapable.

The Islamic State can't invade Italy, of course, but I think we should expect a major terrorist attack in Rome or an assassination attempt on the pope.
 

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