- Sep 2013
- Chattanooga, TN
The totality of the evidence I have seen that a long-term threat to slavery was important to antebellum white southerners.It would be a difficult situation for them to become a smaller and smaller minority in Congress. Slavery was becoming concentrated in the deep south. There were a series of events, bloody Kansas, the caning incident, John Brown's "raid", and then Lincoln's election. Slavery wasn't really threatened any time soon, but the interests of the deep southern states and their elite seemed better served in an independent country.
If the South did not secede, the free states would have eventually greatly outnumbered the slaves states. The Supreme Court would likely have ruled that the Corwin Amendment was unconstitutional and/or the free states would have passed an Amendment abolishing slavery that the leaders of the free states would say nullified the Corwin Amendment.The southern states could have gotten an agreement and a Constitutional Amendment protecting slavery permanently. The Corwin Amendment said there could be no Constitutional Amendment abolishing slavery. This assumed that a leglislation could not abolish slavery and also that the slave states were likely to be badly outnumbered in the future so that it would be possible for 3/4 of the states to ratify an anti-slavery amendment.