Do we know what Stalin was going to do with Manchuria if the KMT would have won the Chinese Civil War?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,239
SoCal
Do we know what Stalin was going to do with Manchuria if the KMT (Kuomintang) would have won the Chinese Civil War? Basically, I'm thinking of a scenario where the KMT control the rest of China while Mao still holds onto Manchuria. Would Stalin have sold Mao down the river in such a scenario or would he have tried to prop up Mao in Manchuria and make him a Soviet puppet?

Are there any records, documents, and/or writings that indicate Stalin's thoughts on such a hypothetical scenario?
 
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Jun 2019
2
Canada
I don't know of any documentation of Stalin's thoughts on such a scenario. I'm a fan of early 20th century Chinese history, but I haven't quite gotten to the second phase of the Civil War yet, so this is just my opinion.

I don't think there was any way the CCP and KMT could have been persuaded to co-exist. They were both hell-bent on controlling ALL of China. The only way I can think of for the CCP to hold Manchuria while the KMT held the rest of the country would be if the KMT had lost Manchuria as in our timeline, but then somehow managed to halt the CCP at the Great Wall. An unlikely proposition, but if that had happened, they would have kept attacking and counter-attacking each other until one of them broke. The only options I can see for the Soviet Union would be to supply the CCP with weapons or to intervene directly.

I doubt the Soviets would have had to do too much though. The KMT was a rotting structure. It was corrupt and its power base in Central China was in ruins not to mention the middle and upper classes, on whom they relied for support, had been shattered by the run-away inflation that had finally caught up with them. I hate the idea of historical inevitability, but the way I see it the KMT had no good chances of winning the war by 1946. So, if it had come down to a stalemate with the two sides staring each other down over the Great Wall, I think the CCP would eventually have won with or without overt Soviet support.
 
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sparky

Ad Honorem
Jan 2017
5,156
Sydney
Stalin had pretty good relations with the Kuomintang and rather bad ones with Mao until the end of WW2
on Manchuria he would have done about the same
strip the place bare and let it hang
the man was an opportunist with a long term vision , getting deeply embroiled in china wasn't much to his liking
the main concern for him was the US policies and the cold war in Europe
Even during the korean war he mostly stood back and watched the fireworks
 
Apr 2017
1,654
U.S.A.
I believe I heard that Stalin wanted Mao to hold back and try to undermine the Kuomintang through guerilla warfare (like what would later happen in Vietnam) rather than direct war. Possibly to better control him.

A alternate reality story I heard of had the communists rule the north and later split Hong Kong with the south (Berlin style) when the British lease ran out.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,239
SoCal
I believe I heard that Stalin wanted Mao to hold back and try to undermine the Kuomintang through guerilla warfare (like what would later happen in Vietnam) rather than direct war. Possibly to better control him.

A alternate reality story I heard of had the communists rule the north and later split Hong Kong with the south (Berlin style) when the British lease ran out.
The Communists won't have a common border with Hong Kong in this scenario, though.

Also, katchen previously said that Stalin actually wanted the USSR to have a monopoly on Communism and thus actually wanted Chiang to win the Chinese Civil War.
 
Apr 2017
1,654
U.S.A.
The Communists won't have a common border with Hong Kong in this scenario, though.

Also, katchen previously said that Stalin actually wanted the USSR to have a monopoly on Communism and thus actually wanted Chiang to win the Chinese Civil War.
They don't need to, Hong Kong is coastal.
 
Apr 2017
1,654
U.S.A.
Why would the Chinese nationalists have actually agreed to this, though?
It wouldn't be up to them, ultimately it would be Britain's decision. In this scenario the Soviet Union was still around, probably backing the North's claim (as it would offer the Soviets an excellent naval base).
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,239
SoCal
Why'd the Soviets still be around?

Also, the Soviets aren't going to go to war over this. Period.
 
Apr 2017
1,654
U.S.A.
Why'd the Soviets still be around?

Also, the Soviets aren't going to go to war over this. Period.
The original source material for this is a Japanese light novel series, so the plot gets a bit bizarre.
They don't need to go to war, just make threats. Britain would be pressured to split the territory as neither government can claim to be the legitimate heir to Manchurian government that the British signed the treaty with.
 
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