Do you see a European federation/superstate eventually being created?

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,687
SoCal
#1
Do you realistically see a European federation/superstate eventually being created? I mean having the EU be transformed into a federal state similar to what the US is nowadays.

If so, when do you think that this would occur? Also, do you think that all EU countries would be in favor of this or are some EU countries going to be opposed to this and thus opt for a smaller level of integration?
 

Belgarion

Ad Honorem
Jul 2011
6,603
Australia
#2
For a while I could see it happening, however once the UK has left the EU others will follow so the political integration of most of Europe will be on hold for some time. Not to say it won't happen in the future, but the chances of it happening on our lifetimes are much slimmer than they were.
 
Likes: Futurist

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
16,687
SoCal
#3
For a while I could see it happening, however once the UK has left the EU others will follow so the political integration of most of Europe will be on hold for some time. Not to say it won't happen in the future, but the chances of it happening on our lifetimes are much slimmer than they were.
To be honest, even if the UK would have remained in the EU, I certainly don't see it agreeing to the creation of a European superstate. Indeed, the UK's hostility towards deep integration within the EU is why I wondered if it would be best for the UK to leave the EU.
 
Apr 2018
828
Upland, Sweden
#5
For a while I could see it happening, however once the UK has left the EU others will follow so the political integration of most of Europe will be on hold for some time. Not to say it won't happen in the future, but the chances of it happening on our lifetimes are much slimmer than they were.
I see your point, and Brexit certainly seems to have encouraged many of the so called "euro-skeptics". On the other hand, I also think there is an argument to be made that the UK leaving actually increases the chance of a Federal Europe happening rather than decreasing it. As @Futurist pointed out, the UK's hostility to deeper integration probably put a hold on explicit drives in this direction in the past. Now there are all sorts of other things happening, like Macron calling for a United States of Europe etc.

Personally I think some kind of European Federation is essential if the countries of continental Europe are to maintain any meaningful political influence and autonomy on the world stage in the 21st century. On the other hand, I'm not too keen on my country loosing its identity and room to maneuver to subsidize inefficient and corrupt practices in other parts of the continent. My ideal would look like a giant Switzerland, rather than what the EU looks like today (being run by bureaucrats with the dirigiste mentality of parisian chapagne socialist bureaucrats). In fact, if the EU keeps being run by people with values like those of for example Emmanuel Macron I'd rather Sweden leave, and try it's luck on it's own - even if that is unlikely to work out in the long run; more realistically though, I see the EU changing. Many of the so called "euro-skeptics" in continental Europe have shifted from advocating outright leavning (not too many did to begin with) to advocating vast reform of the EU instead - like the Sweden Democrats over here for example.

My favourite example in these discussions is Victor Orban's call for a European army in 2016. Not every country in Europe is the UK, but because of the universal (and increasing) dominance of english as a media language there is often a weird framing of the entire discussion, especially in "populist" circles with a very strange implicit assumption that all countries on the continent have similar interests and similar historical experiences to the UK. To quote the polish ex foreign minister Radek Sikorski: You were not occupied. Most of us on the continent were. We will do almost anything to prevent that happening again.
 

AlpinLuke

Ad Honoris
Oct 2011
25,527
Italy, Lago Maggiore
#6
I would agree on the matter of fact that without UK the European integration will accelerate. What I can predict is that the process will reach a point of equilibrium at level of confederation. I don't think we will see the USE [United State of Europe], but once London will be out, there will be good probabilities to see the EC [but not the European Community ... the European Confederation].

In a certain measure already today EU looks a bit like a confederation, but in a real confederation all the members have got the same level of integration and the same currency unit [with only one central bank] would help a lot.

The form of the confederation could be a suitable solution for the present European continental context.

To create a federation would be really quite difficult nowadays, it would mean to persuade the great European nations to renounce almost totally to their sovereignty and we know that this is substantially impossible now. A confederation wouldn't require to France, Germany, Italy, Spain ... and the others ... to renounce to a large part of their sovereignty. This is why I guess this solution will be preferred.
 
Apr 2018
828
Upland, Sweden
#9
I would agree on the matter of fact that without UK the European integration will accelerate. What I can predict is that the process will reach a point of equilibrium at level of confederation. I don't think we will see the USE [United State of Europe], but once London will be out, there will be good probabilities to see the EC [but not the European Community ... the European Confederation].

In a certain measure already today EU looks a bit like a confederation, but in a real confederation all the members have got the same level of integration and the same currency unit [with only one central bank] would help a lot.

The form of the confederation could be a suitable solution for the present European continental context.

To create a federation would be really quite difficult nowadays, it would mean to persuade the great European nations to renounce almost totally to their sovereignty and we know that this is substantially impossible now. A confederation wouldn't require to France, Germany, Italy, Spain ... and the others ... to renounce to a large part of their sovereignty. This is why I guess this solution will be preferred.
This sounds like the best compromise, in theory at least - although I am unsure whether such a political entity might not have to take the steps towards a full federation, or something similar to it to be functional. How do you see this working out in practice? Would there be a common defence and foreign policy (as well as common currency) but no common budgets?
 
Apr 2018
828
Upland, Sweden
#10
We will, but I think what you're saying is highly unlikely. I don't see Germany being in a position to dominate anyone. They're neutered, if anything.

Much of the whole point of the EU is to put Germany into a context where they don't feel they have to turn mad and create continent wide wars once every half century. I mean it's not like the Germans were completely unjustified in their paranoia from 1871 (if not earlier even, looking at Prussian history) forward, just look at them - they are surrounded on all sides
 
Likes: Futurist

Similar History Discussions