European geopolitics in the decades after an alternate WWI that breaks out in 1917


Ad Honoris
May 2014
OK--here's the scenario: In 1914, FF and his wife survive the assassination attempt on them in Sarajevo. Once FF comes to power in Austria in 1916 or 1917 (depending on when exactly his uncle FJ actually dies in this scenario), Hungary refuses to renew its union with Austria and instead declares itself an independent state and calls for Russia to militarily protect it. Russia, seeing an opportunity to eliminate Austria as a serious rival in the Balkans, agrees. Thus, Hungary, Russia, Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, Italy, and France fight an alternate WWI against Germany and Austria in the late 1910s in this scenario. Due to the completion of the Russian Great Military Program, Russia is able to have much more forces at its disposal and, with the help of Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, Romania, and Italy, proceeds to make mincemeat out of the Austrian military and also manages to conquer East Prussia and perhaps some additional eastern territories from Germany as well. Anyway, once Russian troops enter Vienna or at least are located on the outskirts of Vienna, Germany decides that it's futile to continue the war and thus forces Austria to make peace. Anyway, the final peace settlement looks something like this:

Russia gets Galicia and split Bukovina with Romania (or maybe Russia is even generous enough to give all of Bukovina to Romania if that is the price to pay for having Romania enter this alt-WWI on the Russian side), Serbia gets Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dalmatia, the rest of Croatia, and eastern Slovenia (and also successfully unifies with Montenegro in order to form Yugoslavia), Italy gets Trentino, South Tyrol, Trieste, Istria, Fiume, and western Slovenia, and France gets Alsace-Lorraine back and possibly the Saar(land) and/or Landau as well. I suppose that the Franco-Russians could also force Germany to give Eupen and Malmedy to Belgium as well as to give northern Schleswig back to Denmark. In addition to East Prussia (which includes the Memelland), Russia might also acquire Danzig/West Prussia, Posen Province, and Upper Silesia from Germany--though that's not guaranteed. If Russia is actually in control of these territories at the end of this alt-WWI and Germany can't actually dislodge the Russians from these territories, though, then Russia is certainly going to keep these territories after the end of this alt-WWI. Also, Japan declares war on Germany and acquires all of Germany's Asian and Pacific colonies for itself.

Anyway, how would the post-alt-WWI geopolitical situation in Europe and elsewhere in the world have looked like over the next several decades and beyond in this scenario? Any thoughts on this?