Exit Polls Put Macron and Le Pen in the Lead in French Election

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Valens

Ad Honorem
Feb 2014
8,303
Colonia Valensiana
Yes but Le Pen ranking second here means it isn't ''game over'' for her right? Both first and second place advance to the second round and who knows what might happen there. Macron might end up first here only to lose out to Le Pen in the second round.
Well, you're right. But if this will be the result in the first round then the polls were extremely accurate. And they predict something like 60/40 victory for Macron in the run-off.
 
Jan 2017
783
UK
Le Pen's unfavourability ratings makes her winning the 2nd round unlikely imo. Macron just needs enough voters to hate him less than Le Pen.
 

Valens

Ad Honorem
Feb 2014
8,303
Colonia Valensiana
She lacks the critical mass needed to win the election and the establishment will rally against her. But it's still success for her, she won more votes compared to 2012, but not much.

Could be her time in 2022.
 

Valens

Ad Honorem
Feb 2014
8,303
Colonia Valensiana
This could be interesting... the projection I'm seeing now puts Le Pen first with 24,3 and Macron second with 21,4, but Fillon has 20,3.
These differences are in the range of statistical margin of error. :zany:

Edit: Le Pen overtakes Macron in projection. Fillon backs Macron...
 
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Apr 2012
1,040
The Netherlands
Would Le Pen ending up first in the first round significantly increase her chances? Would it change any of the points posters made about why she wouldn't?
 

deaf tuner

Ad Honoris
Oct 2013
14,533
Europix
She lacks the critical mass needed to win the election and the establishment will rally against her. But it's still success for her, she won more votes compared to 2012, but not much.

Could be her time in 2022.
Valens, how manipulable and how stupid is the French people ?

How almighty is the establishment ?

Since first time le Pens made it through the second round of presidentials, (and that's already a generation ago …), it's always the same thing.

And if the majority of French simply don't want that kind of presidency?

Sometimes one doesn't have to look for the sun at noon, as a French proverb say …
 

Valens

Ad Honorem
Feb 2014
8,303
Colonia Valensiana
Valens, how manipulable and how stupid is the French people ?

How almighty is the establishment ?
Mighty enough to employ the tried and tested strategies. Remember the regional election?

Though, I don't see why you imply I think French people are stupid? Certainly not, quite the opposite.

Since first time le Pens made it through the second round of presidentials, (and that's already a generation ago …), it's always the same thing.

And if the majority of French simply don't want that kind of presidency?

Sometimes one doesn't have to look for the sun at noon, as a French proverb say …
We'll see. But I'm sure it's in French interest to have a strong President, not a reprise of Hollande.
But in the end, I'm not French, so they will decide.
 

deaf tuner

Ad Honoris
Oct 2013
14,533
Europix
Mighty enough to employ the tried and tested strategies. Remember the regional election?

Though, I don't see why you imply I think French people are stupid? Certainly not, quite the opposite.

We'll see. But I'm sure it's in French interest to have a strong President, not a reprise of Hollande.
But in the end, I'm not French, so they will decide.
Valens, every time, le Pens defeat is explained by the pressure of the establishment, manipulation, strategies …

Again, why can't simply be that a large part of French simply do not want that kind of presidency ?
 

Valens

Ad Honorem
Feb 2014
8,303
Colonia Valensiana
Valens, every time, le Pens defeat is explained by the pressure of the establishment, manipulation, strategies …

Again, why can't simply be that a large part of French simply do not want that kind of presidency ?
We'll see. For now, she seems to be winning the first round. But, I understand you see this as a sort of a referendum for or against Le Pen?
 
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