Exit Polls Put Macron and Le Pen in the Lead in French Election

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tomar

Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
13,804
.
So far Macron stand for a strong federal Europe , a strong Atlanticist bend
globalism and an open mind on immigration ,

He has proven to be intellectually brilliant , rather stubborn in what he believe and usually get what he want , having worked for the Rothchild is a pretty cool item on a resume , the big question is his jumping into politic , with a drop of income quite prodigious
his abilities would have made him noticed once he had been introduced to allies of Hollande
His decision to quit the government and start his own was a surprise
at around the same time the Financial Times , the Economist and Bloomberg mentioned favorably this young reformer ...?????
Lets not forget that he was economic advisor to the president and minister of the economy where he brilliantly..... failed

During his tenure unemployment increased, France failed to meet its budget deficit targets, trade deficit increased, growth was anemic (less than 0.7% per year on average)

Sarkozy was likewise a failure in most of his ministerial posts before being elected president

Looks like the worse minister you are, the better your chances at becoming president
 

tomar

Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
13,804
That's an interesting spin. Is Macron's program proposing/suggesting an accelerated immigration and open-borderism ?
Yes

He has commented that 200 000 or so a year is not much even though this is roughly equal to the natural growth (i.e births minus deaths) of France....
 

deaf tuner

Ad Honoris
Oct 2013
14,533
Europix
Yes

He has commented that 200 000 or so a year is not much even though this is roughly equal to the natural growth (i.e births minus deaths) of France....

And how is the comment "is not much" a program of "accelerated immigration"?

Populism is a political doctrine that proposes that the common people are exploited by a privileged elite, and which seeks to resolve this. The main ideology of populists can be left, right, center, or bottom

Macron claims to be "anti system"
Macron goes to socialists and tells them "I am a socialist"
He goes to non socialist and tells them "I am not a socialist"
He goes to Algeria and tells them "Colonialism was a crime against humanity"
and so on


In France it is not risky to be pro EU.... its on the contrary the safer bet....
Very honestly, I have the impression You are confounding "populist" with "demagogue".
 
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jackydee

Ad Honorem
Jan 2013
4,569
Brigadoon
I hear a lot of talk about how Le Pen's defeat is just a temporary setback and that Populism will reach its peak in the future.

But what if Populism already reached its peak in the last few years? The most powerful man in the world, certainly the free world is a shameless populist, the course of one of Europe's major countries has been decided by populists, Poland has a populist government and so does the Philippines.

You could see Populism not breaking through in the Netherlands, France and most probably Germany to be a break in that trend, that after victory after victory Populism now has a mild decline rather then the ''Patriotic spring'' they wished for. A refugee crisis, an economic crisis, a wildly unpopular French president and a dangerous death cult that inspires a part of the population to form a fifth column. If the populists have not broken through when things are this dire then what could possibly happen to give them the boost they don't have when they ''enjoy'' all these problems?

I hear that its unlikely that the problems plaguing Europe will be solved and I agree with that. But they can get smaller. The refugee crisis dominated almost a whole year, strengthening the populists but after the Turkey deal it has become a far less visible problem. Now to the core populist voter that deal is unacceptable but I wager a lot of people who would be swayed by a refugee tsunami had less reason to do so when the problem became less visible.

Economic problems in rural areas may not go away but it seems we're moving the economic crisis further and further behind us. That will also hinder populist support.

The big evil that is IS also seems to be on its way out. Then a new battle begins when the lunatics try to return to Europe and the remnants try to increase terror attacks to show they are still relevant but its a battle that can be won in theory at least.

A lot can happen in the spawn of a few years. Its certainly a bit of wishful thinking on my part but the refugee crisis being less disruptive, the economic crisis being more a thing of the past and the defeat of IS may negatively affect the voters populist parties can draw in. Love em or hate em but its undeniable the populists thrive through a sense of crisis. Less crisis should mean less successful populists in theory at least.
Whether or not populism has reached its peak depends mostly upon the likelihood that whatever has caused this populism is about to be solved or mitigated. Look at last years populist winners. It took the best part of a decade since the 2008 financial crash for populism to win in the UK, US etc. Unless the current problems in Europe are addressed then I would assume a similar decade before populism peaks in Europe. It all takes a few election cycles imo. It takes time for the crisis(or malaise) to come to a head.

The first thing to do to head off the populists is to vastly reduce muslim immigration. If this is not done immediately then populism will win much sooner. Now, this suggests that cutting off muslim immigration is solving the problem. It may not. France hasn't particularly suffered from the recent imigration crisis. It has been second generation immigrants that have caused so much trouble in France. Im arguing that the problems in Europe may already be too late to rectify, but certainly halting Islamic immigration is a start.

This is all before we get to the fact that Western States are about to reach a funding crisis. Pensions are about to cripple State finances in so much of the Western world. Non pension commitments are about to be squeezed to the bone. This again will attract voters to populist candidates.

Finally, we have to hope that another financial/banking crisis will not emerge. Despite what any economic eggheads say we simply don't know if such a crisis is heading our way soon. I suspect it may be.

Those are basically the three main problems I see Europe facing in the coming years. I dont think we are particularly well placed to fight off any of them. Neither would I underestimate the chances than we can limp along for a good while, or that we may somehow mitigate or solve these problems. However, I think the most likely scenario is that at least 2 of these 3 major problems are about to come crashing into us head on, and that populism will become even more attractive to voters.
 

tomar

Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
13,804
And how is the comment "is not much" a program of "accelerated immigration"?



Very honestly, I have the impression You are confounding "populist" with "demagogue".
and the difference is ?

as for the comment, it implies he will do nothing to reduce immigration and is likely to increase it
 
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