French Demographics in a 1st Empire victory scenario.

Oct 2015
1,120
California
#22
Actually a sucessful Russian invasion of Napoleonic Germany could happen without the French disaster of 1812. The French Empire could not maintain a Grand Armee in Eastrn Germany and Poland. Once alarge Russian Amry is in Easter Europe , Prussia and Austria are likel to join. The Russian amry nparticulr had learned alot of lessons. It simply was not going to go under in battle. crushing the Russian army is just not likely. A long campaign of attritional warfare that Napoloen was ill suited to fighting is likley,

Napoloen's Empire was over centralised in his person, he did not delegate effectively, only his campaign would be resourced with ubtied coomand. Either he goes Spain and stops wellington, he governs the Empire or he fighst the Russians. Which ever one he chooses the other two start burning out of control.



Napoleon could not maintain a intact Grand Armee.His slash and burn economic practices would have hit the wall. His economic looting of Germany was unsustainable.

Unlikely. I just don't see the possibility of the Russians invading Germany at all in a Napoleon victory scenario. They'd already gotten they asses handed to them repeatedly and are unlikely to want to repeat the experience,. and especially not in Germany.

Even if the Russians did invade, the Grande Armee will be fighting on its own terms and on its own ground, defensively. And if by some miracle the Russians do win, and that is a big IF, the cost would be so devastating to them as to echo Marloborough's "victory" at Malplaquet causing Villars to remark "another such victory and the enemy is ruined."



Anyway, a victorious Napoleon and his successors would indeed have to drawn down France's almost perpetual war footing if they want to win the peace. Even scaling down the Grande Armee from 600,000 to 100,000 in peacetime is not the same as losing it in a gargantuan defeat in Russia in which the Grande Armee lost something like 2/3 of its strength before Borodino. A scaled down Grande Armee is still an intact undefeated Grande Armee. Napoleon's death in 1821 is not going to change the fact that the presence of an undefeated Grande armee even a drawn down one is still the 19th century equivalent of a nuclear deterrent.

All the French need do is wait for the Russians in Germany with an army of around 100,000 ( French veterans) and win a decisive battle on the frontier. In fact a "Petit Armee" might have been more effective fighting a tenacious defensive campaign in Germany wearing the Russians out. For one thing it won't be hampered by the logistical problems that plagued the Grande Armee in the Russian campaign of otl.
 
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pugsville

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
9,247
#23

Unlikely. I just don't see the possibility of the Russians invading Germany at all in a Napoleon victory scenario. They'd already gotten they asses handed to them repeatedly and are unlikely to want to repeat the experience,. and especially not in Germany.

Even if the Russians did invade, the Grande Armee will be fighting on its own terms and on its own ground, defensively. And if by some miracle the Russians do win, and that is a big IF, the cost would be so devastating to them as to echo Marloborough's "victory" at Malplaquet causing Villars to remark "another such victory and the enemy is ruined."



Anyway, a victorious Napoleon and his successors would indeed have to drawn down France's almost perpetual war footing if they want to win the peace. Even scaling down the Grande Armee from 600,000 to 100,000 in peacetime is not the same as losing it in a gargantuan defeat in Russia in which the Grande Armee lost something like 2/3 of its strength before Borodino. A scaled down Grande Armee is still an intact undefeated Grande Armee. Napoleon's death in 1821 is not going to change the fact that the presence of an undefeated Grande armee even a drawn down one is still the 19th century equivalent of a nuclear deterrent.

All the French need do is wait for the Russians in Germany with an army of around 100,000 ( French veterans) and win a decisive battle on the frontier. In fact a "Petit Armee" might have been more effective fighting a tenacious defensive campaign in Germany wearing the Russians out. For one thing it won't be hampered by the logistical problems that plagued the Grande Armee in the Russian campaign of otl.
I'm saying they don;t have to wait for Napoleon to die but invade in 1813.

Well for starters the Russian army was led by men who undertood logistics and planned for a long war, setting up logistics, replacement as and horse manganement, and they would be fighting in Germany not Russia. And the Russians already had 6000,000 men under arms in 1812, and were mobiizing more.

Napoleon poutnumbered the Russians and their allies in spring 1813 and twice failed to substaininllly defeat them despite outnubering almost 2:1. Given substainally even numbers and Austria an dprussian allies, twhy would the asusmption that Napoleon;'s Grand aArmee could "crush' teh Russians be valio,
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,936
SoCal
#24
I would say not overly. But that a pretty uneducated opinion. really Vague memories of stuff I read talked about socologiocal changes coming out of the French revolution. Basiclaly what I remenber is teh French peasantry were properous (relatively) and if they had more children the divsiuon of land would make their children less prosperous so they did nothave many children. But agaisn vague memories of stuff I read a long time ago. So grain of salt.
Quebec had similar laws and yet kept its high fertility in the 19th century, no?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,936
SoCal
#25
Were the Napoleonic Wars partly the reason for the French population collapse in the 19th century?
Apparently the French fertility decline was already being talked about as early as 1778 (so, 11 years before the French Revolution):


So, to answer your question, No, probably not.

BTW, here's an interesting map for you:



France was extraordinary in two large ways--its early fertility transition (and thus its low population growth between 1800 and 1945) and its early adoption of republican principles (in comparison to almost all other European countries).
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
19,936
SoCal
#26
Interestingly enough, there tended to be something of a pattern with the areas in France where cousin marriage was the most widespread experiencing a later fertility transition in comparison to the rest of France: