Futurist's short alternate history questions thread

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Note: I am creating a thread where I can ask various short alternate history questions here. I hope to gradually have this thread become very, very long. If I will want to post a detailed, in-depth alternate history scenario, I can create a separate thread for this. However, if I just want to ask a short and quick alternate history question, then I'm going to do this in this specific thread in order to avoid needlessly creating separate additional threads for each additional short and quick alternate history question of mine. Anyway, here is my first question here:

How many Caucasians and Central Asians do you think would have permanently moved to the European part of Russia in a scenario where Russia didn't have a Bolshevik Revolution and thus didn't have a propiska system that severely restricted internal migration? In the US, something like six million blacks moved from the Southern US to the Northern and Western US between 1910 and 1970 in real life--thus causing the percentage of US blacks who lived in the Southern US to fall from 89% in 1910 to just 53% in 1970:



Basically, I was wonder if something similar could have occurred with Caucasians and/or Central Asians in a non-Bolshevik Russia during the 20th and/or 21st centuries. Anyway, any thoughts on this?
 

Kotromanic

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
5,089
Iowa USA
Never thought about this in much depth, but from .... apologies to all the real academics reading this .... my consumption of Dosetoevsky and Chekhov fiction I have had the impression that at least where Armenian migration is concerned, the 1870s through 1900s saw a large migration from the Caucasus. The question being asked comes to down to any sort of regime controlling the Center that would have mitigated the extreme control of movement of workers?
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Never thought about this in much depth, but from .... apologies to all the real academics reading this .... my consumption of Dosetoevsky and Chekhov fiction I have had the impression that at least where Armenian migration is concerned, the 1870s through 1900s saw a large migration from the Caucasus. The question being asked comes to down to any sort of regime controlling the Center that would have mitigated the extreme control of movement of workers?
For what it's worth, the presence of Armenians in the Russian Empire outside of the Caucasus was actually pretty limited in 1897 with the exception of the Sochi area, Rostov, Crimea, and Astrakhan:



As for restricting internal migration, I suspect that a non-Bolshevik Russia is likely to do much less of that than the Bolsheviks did. Interestingly enough, AFAIK, even right-wing authoritarian European regimes generally did not restrict internal migration for people who weren't actually members of disfavored groups (such as Jews in Nazi Germany).
 
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Kotromanic

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
5,089
Iowa USA
Well, 5% Armenian representation outside of Armenia would be shocking wouldn't it? Armenia is a fairly small population in the first place?

I think rather than sheer numbers, the influence of Armenians in finance led to their appearance in the works of those "major" Russian authors.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Well, 5% Armenian representation outside of Armenia would be shocking wouldn't it? Armenia is a fairly small population in the first place?
Fair point. Thus, perhaps it would be more prudent to look at the total Russian Armenian population living outside of Armenia at various points in time. You can take a look at the graph above showing the percentage of the total US black population that lived in the Southern US at various points in time to see what exactly I mean here.

I think rather than sheer numbers, the influence of Armenians in finance led to their appearance in the works of those "major" Russian authors.
Yeah, that makes sense. I've also read that this might be a part of the reason as to why exactly Russian Tsar Alexander III disliked and/or distrusted the Armenians. Interestingly enough, just like Jews, Armenians appear to have had a reputation as both financiers and potential revolutionaries and subversives--and unsurprisingly just like the Jews, the Armenians likewise experienced a genocide during the 20th century (albeit one that was less total than the Holocaust was in regards to European Jewry in various countries). :(
 

Kotromanic

Ad Honorem
Dec 2011
5,089
Iowa USA
Fair point. Thus, perhaps it would be more prudent to look at the total Russian Armenian population living outside of Armenia at various points in time. You can take a look at the graph above showing the percentage of the total US black population that lived in the Southern US at various points in time to see what exactly I mean here.



Yeah, that makes sense. I've also read that this might be a part of the reason as to why exactly Russian Tsar Alexander III disliked and/or distrusted the Armenians. Interestingly enough, just like Jews, Armenians appear to have had a reputation as both financiers and potential revolutionaries and subversives--and unsurprisingly just like the Jews, the Armenians likewise experienced a genocide during the 20th century (albeit one that was less total than the Holocaust was in regards to European Jewry in various countries). :(
It has been several years now since I was reading a lot of Chekhov but my recollection of Chekhov was that he seemed to admire Jewish achievement in academics and professions. Chekhov seems to have been a very progressive thinker for that society and time, a real shame for the Russian arts that he passed in his mid forties.

But back to the topic, my limited exposure to Russian immigrants in America doesn't make me an optimist that migrants from the Near Abroad could expect much good will in the metro areas of a non-Bolshevik Russia. I'd guess that emigration to France, America even Syria and Iran might be the preferred desitnation. Here's where an analogy to the migration of US African - Americans breaks down. The Northern States and California were the only reasonable choices for most while the barriers to getting to especially Iran and Syria would have been relatively low. for Georgians and Armenians.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
It has been several years now since I was reading a lot of Chekhov but my recollection of Chekhov was that he seemed to admire Jewish achievement in academics and professions. Chekhov seems to have been a very progressive thinker for that society and time, a real shame for the Russian arts that he passed in his mid forties.
Interesting.

But back to the topic, my limited exposure to Russian immigrants in America doesn't make me an optimist that migrants from the Near Abroad could expect much good will in the metro areas of a non-Bolshevik Russia. I'd guess that emigration to France, America even Syria and Iran might be the preferred desitnation. Here's where an analogy to the migration of US African - Americans breaks down. The Northern States and California were the only reasonable choices for most while the barriers to getting to especially Iran and Syria would have been relatively low.
Wouldn't the quality of life in Iran and Syria be inferior to that in European Russia, though?

As for African-Americans, could they have tried moving to Canada, southern Latin America, and/or Europe?
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
Note: I am creating a thread where I can ask various short alternate history questions here. I hope to gradually have this thread become very, very long. If I will want to post a detailed, in-depth alternate history scenario, I can create a separate thread for this. However, if I just want to ask a short and quick alternate history question, then I'm going to do this in this specific thread in order to avoid needlessly creating separate additional threads for each additional short and quick alternate history question of mine. Anyway, here is my first question here:

How many Caucasians and Central Asians do you think would have permanently moved to the European part of Russia in a scenario where Russia didn't have a Bolshevik Revolution and thus didn't have a propiska system that severely restricted internal migration? In the US, something like six million blacks moved from the Southern US to the Northern and Western US between 1910 and 1970 in real life--thus causing the percentage of US blacks who lived in the Southern US to fall from 89% in 1910 to just 53% in 1970:



Basically, I was wonder if something similar could have occurred with Caucasians and/or Central Asians in a non-Bolshevik Russia during the 20th and/or 21st centuries. Anyway, any thoughts on this?
@Visigoth Panzer @Maki @Emperor of Wurttemburg 43 @Mastersonmcvoidson @duncanness @Highlander @Slavon @Farquaad @pugsville
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
23,547
SoCal
OK; my next alternate history question: What happens if the 1835-1836 Texas independence rebellion fails? Specifically, what effect does this have on subsequent US, Texan, and Mexican history?
 
Jan 2013
1,117
Toronto, Canada
OK; my next alternate history question: What happens if the 1835-1836 Texas independence rebellion fails? Specifically, what effect does this have on subsequent US, Texan, and Mexican history?
A column of refugees flees Texas telling stories about Mexican atrocities with not-very-subtle racial overtones. The southern wing of the Democratic Party calls for intervention and seizes on the first pretext to demand war. The Mexican War happens in the late 1830s. Mexico keeps southern California, Arizona and New Mexico because the United States doesn't have the capacity to occupy them yet. They are eventually sold to the United States in an alternate version of the Gadsden Purchase.