Germany invades only Holland and Luxemburg on 20 May, 1938

Nov 2017
557
Guadalajara
OTL France relied on Belgium to hold back the WM long enough for an allied counter attack. Belgium relied on strong forts in the east to slow down the German advance, hoping that Holland would not be invaded or at least slow the German thrust enough, for the allies to counter attack.
Moreover after Austrian annexation, nobody expected war in Europe for a several years, thinking the WM still smalled and inferior to the Belgian, french. British forces.
World attention was centered on the Spanish civil war, which was going poorly for the republic.
The Maginot line is still not complete and the French air force is extremely small and outdated.
Belgium, France, Britain, Luxemburg and Holland are completely unprepared for war. Navies habe reduced peacetime crews, fortifications have small or no garrisons.

ATL
On 15 May, 1939 Hitler offers an alliance to Poland and to provide some armament, training and munitions for Poland to invade the Baltic countries and secure that flank from Soviet invasion of the 3 weak countries. Poland will acquire valuable ports, coasts, territory and population and become much stronger against a Soviet invasion. A strong Germany and Poland can then lure Romania, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Finland into a coalition to declare war on the USSR if it invades any member.
Poland and Germany sign an alliance and write a joint ultimatum for Lithuania to request Polish annexation withing 24 hours, or be invaded by both countries. The ultimatum is to be delivered at 0400 hours on 20 May, 1938.

At dawn 20 May, 1938, the bulk of the LW, WM and KM attacks Holland. Troops debark from cargo and passenger ships in all Dutch ports to seize them. There are cruisers or destroyers refueling in all ports, which support the troops with their guns. Luxemburg is also invaded at dawn.
All Ju 52 land troops in airports, airfields, football fields, pastures, etc, in Holland to seize them, as soon as troops debark, they fly back for reinforcements. Troops seize the airports , etc, and attack all main cities, ports, large towns, bridges, RR lines, etc,
German trains loaded with troops, fieldguns, etc, rush into Holland. all motorized troops, trucks, Panzer, motorcycle units, etc rush to seize the Dutch-Belgian border and join the motorcycle forces debarked in Rotterdam.
There are 300,000 German in hollan by noon. The tiny Dutch army has not had time even to mobilize under heavy air attacks. Most cities are falling rapidly. Holland is clearly lost and capitulates at 1320 hours.
Belgium receives an ultimatum at noon: request German annexation within 6 hours or be bombed, shelled and invaded.
Belgium knows that it is untenable with German forces past the strong forts in the east and its air force will be wiped out in minutes by the LW. It requests annexation 5 hours into the ultimatum.

Lithuania has seen the rapid fall of Holland and it can certainly not fight a joint German-Polish invasion, so it requests Polish annexation. Germany and Poland immediately issue a 6 hour ultimatum to Latvia and Estonia. Poland rapidly occupies Lithuania. Both comply.

On 21 May, Germany is deploying forces along the Belgian-French border, while France is frantically mobilizing. At noon Germany issues an ultimatum to France, request German annexation within 6 hours or be bombed and invaded. France depended 100 % on the Maginot and Belgium and it now faces German forces in a weak area and in 6 hours it is impossible to reinforce it, while mobilization is taking place. There are no British forces in France, nor is there time to transport them before the German attack.

The French government and military argue strongly and conclude that France is untenable and losses will be considerable and futile, unless the ultimatum is accepted. 15 minutes before the ultimatum expires, France complies, requests annexation and opens its borders.

In the east Poland rapidly occupies Latvia and Estonia, while Stalin mobilizes forces to the border. The LW, KM and much of the WM are deployed to the east.

Germany and Poland send a formal invitation to Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Czechoslovakia and Finland to form a coalition to jointly declare war on the USSR in case of Soviet invasion of any of its members. Hungary and Bulgaria accept within hours of receiving the invitation, which prompts Czechoslovakia and then Romania and Finland to accept. The coalition then invites Yugoslavia, Turkey and Iran to join it
 
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Nov 2017
557
Guadalajara
There is no circumstance under which Poland would accept alliance with ether Germany or the USSR.

Any invasion Belgium and Holland would mean war with Britain and France.
Poland liked the anticommunist German stand and had an excellent relationships with Japan, with which it exchanged valuable intelligence regarding the USSR. Poland desperately needed ports and coast and had seized the main Lithuanian city during its expansion phase.
If Hitler offers Poland the tooling, engines, aluminum, etc, to produce the Hs 123 for both contries (paying for the equipment and materials with finished planes), sells 2 dozen each 88 mm and 105 mm guns to deploy near the Soviet border, munitions and offers training in dive bombing, provided Poland signs an alliance an annexes the Baltic countries, Poland will certainly prefer an alliance, rather than face the formidable LW.
If Poland refuses the alliance and valuable, free territory, all Hitler needs to do to persuade Poland, is to publish an open letter to Stalin, stating that Germany will promptly invade any country invaded by the USSR, in order to keep the new Soviet border as far a way from present German borders. However, German forces will deinitely not engage any Soviet forces when they meet, unless attacked first. That will get Poland, Finland, etc, quite interested in a German backed coalition or even in German annexation, rather than being split into a poor Soviet republic and a German province.
 
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Nov 2017
557
Guadalajara
Continuing with the thread. Once France is annexed, on 24 May, while French, Dutch and Belgian forces are incorporated and retrained, Italy and Denmark receive a 6 hour ultimatum to request annexation or be bombed and invaded by German forces (now including French, Belgian and Dutch forces). Both comply, knowing that they cannot face the French and German navy and army.

On 26 May German forces deploy at the Spanish border. Hitler issues a 6 hour ultimatum to the republic, which is already fighting the Nationalists.
The Republic ignores the ultimatum. Germany bombs and invades Spain, landing Italian forces in Valencia and advancing across the French border. Barcelona is damaged considerably by shelling and bombs. The Republic capitulates, Germany occupies it and on May 29, Germany issues an ultimatum to Franco, to integrate his forces into the WM.
Franco has to comply. Germany deploys LW forces to close the Strait of Gibraltar and to invade the Rock, if Britain declares war.

The French and Italian borders with Switzerland and the German and Italian border with Yugoslavia are rapidly occupied and Italian ships are deployed near the Yugoslav coast. On 28 May, Yugoslavia and Switzerland receive a 6 h ultimatum. They comply, are occupied and their armed forces incorporated and retrained.

On 30 May, After German forces deploy to their borders, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia and Hungary receive the 6 h ultimatum. They comply. Sweden receives the ultimatum on the same day, although Aermany cannot deploy troops to its borders, it deploys strong LW and KM forces close to it. All 4 countries have no choice but to comply or be wiped out. They comply.

Finally, Romania, Turkey, Iran, Norway, Greece and Finland receive the 6 h ultimatum, all weak countries (compared to a formidable Germany) have to comply.

On 3 June, Hitler orders strong naval, air and land forces to deploy from France in order to Invade Ireland. as soon as a strong invasion fleet leaves France for Ireland, the latter receives a 6 h ultimatum. Ireland knows that if Britain had no time to deploy and save large France, it will not declare war and reseploy fast enough to save Ireland. Ireland complies. Bf 110, He !!!, Ju 52 loaded with troops soon arrive, then the invasion fleet to secure Ireland.
 

pugsville

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
9,970
Poland liked the anticommunist German stand and had an excellent relationships with Japan, with which it exchanged valuable intelligence regarding the USSR. Poland desperately needed ports and coast and had seized the main Lithuanian city during its expansion phase.
If Hitler offers Poland the tooling, engines, aluminum, etc, to produce the Hs 123 for both contries (paying for the equipment and materials with finished planes), sells 2 dozen each 88 mm and 105 mm guns to deploy near the Soviet border, munitions and offers training in dive bombing, provided Poland signs an alliance an annexes the Baltic countries, Poland will certainly prefer an alliance, rather than face the formidable LW.
If Poland refuses the alliance and valuable, free territory, all Hitler needs to do to persuade Poland, is to publish an open letter to Stalin, stating that Germany will promptly invade any country invaded by the USSR, in order to keep the new Soviet border as far a way from present German borders. However, German forces will deinitely not engage any Soviet forces when they meet, unless attacked first. That will get Poland, Finland, etc, quite interested in a German backed coalition or even in German annexation, rather than being split into a poor Soviet republic and a German province.

This sort diplomacy just will not work. Unrealistic.

Invading the Baltic States, is likely to bemoan with war with the Soviet Union. An extremely risky move, that Poland would simply not take. Effective German support against the soviet union could only happen via German troops entering Polish territory. Which was unacceptable to the Poles.

The Poles were extremely paranoid about both the Soviet Union and Germany. Under no circumstances would they allow a soldier or either nation on their soil. They were strongly convinced that both Germany and the Soviet Union were keen to eliminate Poland as a nation.

Thus Ultimately alliance with either one would be rejected, because the only way the Soviet Union or Germany can provide effective support against the Other is via their troops marching into Poland.
 
Nov 2017
557
Guadalajara
This sort diplomacy just will not work. Unrealistic.

Invading the Baltic States, is likely to bemoan with war with the Soviet Union. An extremely risky move, that Poland would simply not take. Effective German support against the soviet union could only happen via German troops entering Polish territory. Which was unacceptable to the Poles.

The Poles were extremely paranoid about both the Soviet Union and Germany. Under no circumstances would they allow a soldier or either nation on their soil. They were strongly convinced that both Germany and the Soviet Union were keen to eliminate Poland as a nation.

Thus Ultimately alliance with either one would be rejected, because the only way the Soviet Union or Germany can provide effective support against the Other is via their troops marching into Poland.
OTL Stalin was scared to death of Germany, to the point that having T-34, KV-1, huge infantry, artillery, air forces along the border on 21 June, all border units were ordered not to provoke Germany. ATL the USSR is not even mobilized and it has only light tanks. Stalin is in the purges and even more affraid of a German-Polish alliance. Even if he mobilized and deploys frantically, it will never provoke Germany and Poland into war. Especially after seeing German performance in France and learning that debarked, motorcyle and airborne troops defeated Holland in hours.

Ultimatum diplomacy always works, when there is no alternative for the recipient, but obliteration.

OTL The Poles and Czechs were right to be affraid of Germany. Hitler had spent all 1938 and 1939 creating propaganda about Polish mistreatment of German Poles and and German Czechs and creating hatred of Czechs and Poles. ATL Hitler is offering an alliance and means to produce a useful fighter-bomber in 1938 and a few dozen cannon, etc, so he obvioulsy is not planning to invade Poland. Hitler is using Poliand's justified fear of the massive and rapidly expanding red army and Polish need of ports, coast, etc, to get Poland to secure that weak flank for the benefit of both Poland and E Prussia.
 
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pugsville

Ad Honorem
Oct 2010
9,970
Ultimatum diplomacy always works, when there is no alternative for the recipient, but obliteration.
History proves this statement false.
Poland in 1939 was unwillingly to concede 1 centre metre.
Greece in 1940.
Belgium in 1914.

Even very small nations can be very stiff necked and stand on the Pride and little else.

Stalins later behaviour is hardly something that Poland and base an invasion of the Baltic states on. The Poles would know it was a huge risk, that but could well mean war with the Soviet Union.
 
Nov 2017
557
Guadalajara
History proves this statement false.
Poland in 1939 was unwillingly to concede 1 centre metre.
Greece in 1940.
Belgium in 1914.

Even very small nations can be very stiff necked and stand on the Pride and little else.

Stalins later behaviour is hardly something that Poland and base an invasion of the Baltic states on. The Poles would know it was a huge risk, that but could well mean war with the Soviet Union.
Poland did not know that the USSR was also going to invade it. It hoped that Britain and France would assist it through the Romanian corridor and invade Germany, buying time. Had Hitler shown Poland the secret protocol of the R-M pact on 28 August, 1939, Poland would have deduced that France and Britain would never declare war on both Germany and the USSR and that the Romanian-Polish border would be soon captured by the USSR. It would certainly not have sacrificed hundreds of thousands of young men and civilians pointlessly and have part of Poland become a godless, poor, Sovietic republic. It would have certainly requested German annexation. However, Hitler was a diplomatic and strategic moron, who wanted blood and devastation, rather than placing the enemy in checkmate and occupying an intact Poland, incorporating, equipping and retraining its efficient armed forces including DD and submarines, which the KM desperately needed and a large number of pilots and tankers, who fought against Germany OTL in France, Britain, Normandy, Monte Cassino, Falaise pocket, etc,! Also saving a lot of German troops, planes, tanks, fuel, munitions and invaluable time invading Poland.
With Poland in his power, Denmark, Hungary, Bulgaria and Holland will never ignore a German ultimatum, then Belgium would be untenable and so on. France would certainly think twice about refusing a German ultimatuma with Panzers and planes in Belgium already.
 
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