globalization ending

Port

Ad Honorem
Feb 2013
2,093
portland maine
When thte economic globalization loses its influence what would be the new economic driver and how will it effect the socio- political structures? (not a homework question but something I have been thinking about)
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,366
Italy, Lago Maggiore
A part that you could start the thread submitting your own opinion about this to the attention of the forum, just to begin a debate ... it's not esay [despite my economical education] to predict what could happen in case the economical trend will change [from globalization back to isolationism]. There are some clues that protectionism could come back and play a role in the future, but my impression is that it's something which will be absorbed in the long term, something less or more temporary.

Anyway, if this process will go on the new drive of economy will be a "projected protetionism". The problem for the great economical systems [US, EU, China, UK after Brexit, India, Brazil, Russia ...] is that they cannot be protetionist and self-sufficient. They would suffer of the counter protetionism of the other countries. So that they should "protect" also the sources of their goods, of their energy and of their life style.

This could mean the drastic reduction of outsourcing towards countries generating protetionist troubles [for US the first country to come to mind is China].
 
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Port

Ad Honorem
Feb 2013
2,093
portland maine
A part that you could start the thread submitting your own opinion about this to the attention of the forum, just to begin a debate ... it's not esay [despite my economical education] to predict what could happen in case the economical trend will change [from globalization back to isolationism]. There are some clues that protectionism could come back and play a role in the future, but my impression is that it's something which will be absorbed in the long term, something less or more temporary.

Anyway, if this process will go on the new drive of economy will be a "projected protetionism". The problem for the great economical systems [US, EU, China, UK after Brexit, India, Brazil, Russia ...] is that they cannot be protetionist and self-sufficient. They would suffer of the counter protetionism of the other countries. So that they should "protect" also the sources of their goods, of their energy and of their life style.

This could mean the drastic reduction of outsourcing towards countries generating protetionist troubles [for US the first country to come to mind is China].
I too had some thoughts on a move toward protectionist economies. If that is so, I believe that wealth and income inequality will become worse and with the complicated supply chains establish protectionism rather then by country might be by large areas that control pieces of the supply chain?
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,366
Italy, Lago Maggiore
I too had some thoughts on a move toward protectionist economies. If that is so, I believe that wealth and income inequality will become worse and with the complicated supply chains establish protectionism rather then by country might be by large areas that control pieces of the supply chain?
That's really probable: the life style of the greatest Western economies is also based on the availability of goods and sources of energy coming from far lands. To keep on focusing on US, that federation is absolutely well far from being self-sufficient to grant the present life style to its population.

So that isolationism could force US to be more military imperial at global level: they could need to ensure [when not to conquer] the sources of goods and energy.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
22,750
SoCal
That's really probable: the life style of the greatest Western economies is also based on the availability of goods and sources of energy coming from far lands. To keep on focusing on US, that federation is absolutely well far from being self-sufficient to grant the present life style to its population.

So that isolationism could force US to be more military imperial at global level: they could need to ensure [when not to conquer] the sources of goods and energy.
The US is already unwilling to allow other countries to threaten its vital resource supplies. For instance, Saddam Hussein ultimately paid very dearly for his attempt to conquer Kuwait.
 
Jul 2017
166
Europe
The world of the future will be divided into trading blocs. The reason why U.K. is leaving the EU is that it wants to join the big AngloAmerican trade bloc that could include Australi,NZ, and maybe India. The trade activities between blocs will replace toda ways of doing busines. Globalisation won’t end, but it will be curbed in a way. The biggest countries within a trade blocs will profit the most.