Had China democratized in 1989, what would the last 30 years have looked like for China?

starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,081
Connecticut
#21
Is China so overpopulated that it can't sustain a couple hundred million extra people?
Too crowded as it is, especially in the coastal, eastern areas. The Chinese wanted to halt or slow population growth so that economic development could produce a higher standard of living. Compare that with Egypt. The Egyptian masses would have had a much higher standard of living had their population not quadrupled in the last 40 or so years.
 
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Larrey

Ad Honorem
Sep 2011
5,638
#23
Too crowded as it is, especially in the coastal, eastern areas. The Chinese wanted to halt or slow population growth so that economic development could produce a higher standard of living. Compare that with Egypt. The Egyptian masses would have had a much higher standard of living had their population not quadrupled in the last 40 or so years.
Egypt has gone from 40 to 90 million in the last 40 years. Impressive, +125%, but far from a quadrupling.

China in the same time has gone from 1 to 1,4 billion, +40% increase.

Egypt is in an economic relative hole along with most of the non-oil-rich Arab world since the 1950's – starting from a position relatively close to western Europe, and the marked by a distinct lack of development.
 

Devdas

Ad Honorem
Apr 2015
4,716
India
#25
Please keep in mind, though, that India might have much lower human capital than China has. It certainly performed much worse than China did on the PISA exam--though I do think that India still has a lot of room for improvement (but I suspect probably not all of the way up to China's level of human capital/average IQ).
In India, nobody knows about PISA test, people are concerned about other things. It would be quite bizarre to consider PISA score for comparison.
 
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starman

Ad Honorem
Jan 2014
4,081
Connecticut
#27
Egypt has gone from 40 to 90 million in the last 40 years. Impressive, +125%, but far from a quadrupling.

China in the same time has gone from 1 to 1,4 billion, +40% increase.

Egypt is in an economic relative hole along with most of the non-oil-rich Arab world since the 1950's – starting from a position relatively close to western Europe, and the marked by a distinct lack of development.
Egypt’s population has surpassed 100 million. Since the time of Nasser there has been substantial development in Egypt, but far from enough to keep pace with the population bomb. I’m sure the one child policy at least slowed China’s population growth.
 
Likes: Futurist
Jul 2014
1,602
world
#28
A China that became a democracy in the 1989 would be a relatively poor and backward country. The student protesters were asking for more conservative economic system and there were even few Maostic elements in the protesters. I think a democratic China would have the same economic growth rate as India. A 6-8 percent economic growth not 12-15 that was under the communists.

China was not simply not prepared for democracy in 1989.
Socially and culturally the people of China in 1989 was a relatively backward looking both socially and economic vise.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#29
A China that became a democracy in the 1989 would be a relatively poor and backward country. The student protesters were asking for more conservative economic system and there were even few Maostic elements in the protesters. I think a democratic China would have the same economic growth rate as India. A 6-8 percent economic growth not 12-15 that was under the communists.

China was not simply not prepared for democracy in 1989.
Socially and culturally the people of China in 1989 was a relatively backward looking both socially and economic vise.
What exactly do you mean by "more conservative economic system"?