Had Napoleon Won the Waterloo Campaign, How Long Would He Hold Out Against The 7th Coalition?

Feb 2019
674
Serbia
#1
If Napoleon won at the Waterloo Campaign (Let's say by destroying the Prussians after Ligny and defeating Wellington's army separately.) how long would've he held out against the incoming coalition armies? Would he had been able to mobilise new forces and even occupy some territories in Belgium. Even if he would not be able to win the war, how long would he hold out if he had won Waterloo?
 
Jun 2019
8
United States
#2
What was his end game? Was he trying to secure territory permanently for his empire? I think it would of been impossible to hold out very long considering the size of his enemies forces. Eventually they would of been able to mobilize some sort of counter strike or blockade to turn the tide.
 
May 2011
513
UK
#3
Think it would depend on two things, whether he could gain widespread support in France and whether or not the coalition could survive the defeat without fractures opening up. If he could have convinced one or two members of the coalition to quit the war or even rejoin France and mobilised a large enough army maybe he could have held out. Certainly if he had reached Brussels I can see there would have been fractures developing in the coalition.
 

Chlodio

Forum Staff
Aug 2016
4,066
Dispargum
#4
At the time of Waterloo the Austrians and Russians were also mobilizing against Napoleon. In a matter of weeks he would have had to fight them, too. France was exhausted. They couldn't keep taking casualties, even if they won most of the battles, those victories would not have been bloodless. The Allies were not going to give up, even if they did lose a few battles in 1815. Napoleon would not have survived in power into 1816.
 

Edratman

Forum Staff
Feb 2009
6,645
Eastern PA
#5
At the time of Waterloo the Austrians and Russians were also mobilizing against Napoleon. In a matter of weeks he would have had to fight them, too. France was exhausted. They couldn't keep taking casualties, even if they won most of the battles, those victories would not have been bloodless. The Allies were not going to give up, even if they did lose a few battles in 1815. Napoleon would not have survived in power into 1816.
That is right. Napoleon was the most hated and feared man in all of Europe, which meant that every sovereign on the continent was willing to expend every effort to rid Europe of his presence. When you couple that attitude with the fact that Napoleon's wars depleted France of sufficient manpower to resist the combined military might, the final result was inevitable. The only possible question was which month in 1815 would be Napoleon's last month in France?
 
May 2011
513
UK
#6
At the time of Waterloo the Austrians and Russians were also mobilizing against Napoleon. In a matter of weeks he would have had to fight them, too. France was exhausted. They couldn't keep taking casualties, even if they won most of the battles, those victories would not have been bloodless. The Allies were not going to give up, even if they did lose a few battles in 1815. Napoleon would not have survived in power into 1816.
I used to have the same view however there are no guarantees european diplomacy and warfare, especially in the early 19th century. events, regimes and agreements can be overturned quickly.
 
Feb 2019
674
Serbia
#10
Alexander I was a very stubborn fellow and wouldn't just leave Napoleon alone. Think of him as more dangerous ,, William III of Orange ''.
I'm aware, Napoleon couldn't hold out forever, I just wonder for how log he could've held.

That is right. Napoleon was the most hated and feared man in all of Europe, which meant that every sovereign on the continent was willing to expend every effort to rid Europe of his presence. When you couple that attitude with the fact that Napoleon's wars depleted France of sufficient manpower to resist the combined military might, the final result was inevitable. The only possible question was which month in 1815 would be Napoleon's last month in France?
I wonder if Spain or Sardinia would try to invade if Austria and Russia took too long to advance or as reaction to the defeat in Belgium. One thing to consider is that if Napoleon wins in Belgium he would actually get more defensible terrain due to the Rhine and could use the victory as a morale boosting effort. His army before Waterloo was something like 4 times smaller than that of the coalition , I believe that this army would not be enough to hold the borders of France.