Had the U.S. enabled Iran to become a regional geopolitical power?

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Closed
Jul 2017
157
Europe
#1
We are witnessing the rise of Iran as a regional, geopolitical power in the Middle East. Iran today is in much more favourable geopolitical situation than it was from 1979 until 2003. Iran and Iraq were both significant powers and they were able to successfully balance each other, which in turn led to the geopolitical equilibrium in the region. The U.S. strategically supported either side based on the geopolitical interests of U.S.A and its allies.

After the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, the geopolitical map in the Middle East had changed. As a result of the war, Iraq had descended into sectarian violence and clashes. The whole situation had weakened Iraqi political, economical and military clout, and on the other hand, Iran saw an opportunity to intensify its military presence in the region and position itself as the sole geopolitical force.

Today, U.S. sees Iran as being the major threat in the Middle East and they try to contain Iranian nuclear ambitions at any cost. It was the U.S. who contributed to the rise of Iranian influence by promoting the policies that eliminated bipolar order and allowed Iran to propel itself to become the major military force.

What are your thoughts about this?
 

Ichon

Ad Honorem
Mar 2013
3,657
#2
Iran was already a regional power prior to the U.S. invasion of Iraq- the U.S. simply made Iran gain a few more allies and removed a chunk of local opponents who were opposed to Iran. The main ramifications are that Israel and Saudi Arabia have drawn closer while the threat of Islamists to even somewhat 'supportive' regimes has led to a diminishment in oil money going that way (though millions still flow to support of Islamist groups).

Iran already had very close ties with Hezbollah and was working on expanding its influence among Shia scattered around the middle east- now with Egypt focused inwards, Saudi Arabia and Israel opposed to Iran's influence, and several more shattered and perhaps failed states, the board is shaken up but the final political order is still in play. Iran would like to dominate more fully but it's main strength comes from operating in the shadows- perhaps a few Iraqis would support overt Iranian annexation of parts of Iraq but most definitely would oppose it so Iran does best when it leaves the borders the same and the only way Iran could possibly gain legitimacy from Sunnis is via attacks/destruction of Isreal which Sunni states have never really tried since 1940s and even back away from strong opposition due to the U.S. being spread throughout Sunni states.

Israel's main truly dangerous violent foe in the region is Hezbollah while many Palestinian groups would like to wipe Isreal off the map they lack the power- Hezbollah does as well but could greatly damage Israel and if Iran got a nuke even of limited capacity and somehow was stupid enough to give it to Hezbollah... there is still an existential threat to Israel in that scenario so both Israel and Iran have each other as their main obstacles to regional aspirations.
 

tomar

Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
13,765
#3
Historically Iran (Persia) has been a power for long periods of time throughout history, at some point building an empire that in terms of size and population was equivalent to that of Rome at its peak... So its current "rise" can be seen in the context of regaining its place....
However Iran is a very difficult neighborhood... Turkey has a similar population and higher GDP, Pakistan has nukes and more than twice the population of Iran, Afghanistan is unstable, Russia is near by , the arab world is generally against it (with the exception of Syria and now Iraq).... Even without the US, its a very difficult position (somewhat reminiscent of early 20th century Austria Hungary)
 
Jul 2017
223
Neverland
#4
We are witnessing the rise of Iran as a regional, geopolitical power in the Middle East. Iran today is in much more favourable geopolitical situation than it was from 1979 until 2003. Iran and Iraq were both significant powers and they were able to successfully balance each other, which in turn led to the geopolitical equilibrium in the region. The U.S. strategically supported either side based on the geopolitical interests of U.S.A and its allies.

After the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, the geopolitical map in the Middle East had changed. As a result of the war, Iraq had descended into sectarian violence and clashes. The whole situation had weakened Iraqi political, economical and military clout, and on the other hand, Iran saw an opportunity to intensify its military presence in the region and position itself as the sole geopolitical force.

Today, U.S. sees Iran as being the major threat in the Middle East and they try to contain Iranian nuclear ambitions at any cost. It was the U.S. who contributed to the rise of Iranian influence by promoting the policies that eliminated bipolar order and allowed Iran to propel itself to become the major military force.

What are your thoughts about this?

Very shrewd observation indeed. What, if this is official US policy, as Rev.Jessy Jackson - former Democratic candidate for US President said in interview in the mid 2000s
, and NOT a blunder on part of former Pres. George W Bush and also his father in 1991 ?
Remarks over the decades have been made as to the policy of ..sparring partners..ie term in boxing, alluding in this case to a bigger goal - encircling Russia with nuclear
capable neighbors to keep it down to size.

This is not a new policy, but rather dating back to old Rome and its Divide and Conquer brilliant policy of keeping things in check. Just that the USA picked it up and took it to new heights. In other words neither Pres. Bush taking out Iraq as a barrier to Iran nor Bill Clinton transferring satellite technology from Loral Inc and giving it to China in the mid 1990s was a blunder or mere act of stupidity.

That anti-Russia policy goes back even further, when nuclear know how were given to England and France to keep Russia honest in the West. In the mid 1960s late Pres.Lindon
Johnson send American nuclear engineers Chinese roots to help develop China's nuclear program.Also, when India demonstarated to the world in 1997-1998 its newly acquired
atomic capabilities a few days later Pakistan announced that they too are nuclear nation and even organized a military parade replete with ICBMs that to the naked eye
appeared to have been carried on old Soviet mega trucks with the rockets obviously an old Russian SS-18 rockets, without the red star of course, those were repainted.

Later in the US media was reported that the whole Soviet nuclear arsenal in Kazakhstan were spirited out and fission material and hardware flown to the USA with the blessing of always drunk Russian president Boris Yeltsin.lol How that came to Pakistan is a mystery, BUT we have on top of the old nuclear pair - USSR-China another pair - India-Pakistan.In this case Russia get encircled with nukes not only from the West, but from South as well.

Last August Iran signaled to the world, that they know how to build a nuke(North Korea's help) but choose 'Not to'..hmm And then we have the communist Koreans check mating Russia to the East along with China.According to the US based Stratfor think thank and its head honcho George Friedman, Turkey and Poland are slated to become Europe's next great nuclear powers. Russia is already building 3 new reactors in Turkey, just like they did in Iran decades earlier to help arm more potential enemies on top of the ones it already has.

Former western asset and spy Michael Gorbachev is having a happy retirement in Germany, where he was gifted a castle(and a pension too) to spend his old years in.Vladimir Putin and 'russian' premier Dimitri Medvedev, both 100% Russian Jews are about to retire abroad too. In 2018 Pres. Trump froze $ 220 bln. Russian oligarch's assets in the USA, of which eNglish paper Guardian claims at least $ 40 bln belong to Putin On the other side of the pond - Great Britain according to the brits, there are at least $ 40 bln Russian jewish oligarchs assets in banks enough to pay EU back in the so called Brexit drama now in play.

One of these newly minted billionaires - Roman Abramovitch( Putin's best pal), even bought Premier League - Chelsea in 15 minutes...yup..you guessed it - with stolen Russian gold, diamonds and oil. To unfreeze his billions in the US, Roman took Israeli citizenship and magic happened - got 'his' money back. Putin's ex jewish wife bought $ 7 mln. home on the French Riviera, his daughters$ 2.5 mln. penthouse in Holland - The Hague I believe. Not bad huh ?

In the meantime new nuclear powers spring up here and there, most of them around Russia - including Iran.No need for western war in the future - plenty of other candidates.
So no..no blunders on part of the West to elevate Iran. Even on the original Star Trek TV series reruns from the 1960s, captain Kirk and Mr. Spock are musing should they give nuclear know how to aliens on another planet, to keep each other in check.

Divide and Conquer - nothing new really !
 
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