Historical cycles in the last 5000 years


Ad Honorem
Feb 2010
Canary Islands-Spain
There are some deep mathematic patterns through history that scape our understanding. For example, the bubble model

I worked on study about the territorial size of the Spanish Empire in America, adding territory when the Spanish founded a city, a church or a encampment and found this

In the case of the British Empire, this is the final part of its evolution (a long lasting study probably would show a similar pattern than the previous ones, with the lost of the Thirteen colonies as the "bear trap")



Ad Honorem
Feb 2013
Coastal Florida
I can doubt that my current model is wrong, but I won't doubt that a mathematical model can be found that best describes human history and human evolution.
And I could insist the tooth fairy is real. In the same way, the problem comes in trying to prove it to everyone else. If that's my assertion, I have to realize extraordinary claims require the production of extraordinary evidence. So, I shouldn't be surprised to find that others are skeptical and find my evidence wanting, particularly if I haven't actually presented any such evidence. Here, you've claimed a mathematical model exists to explain the historical record and produced a graph of a function you've somehow derived. Yet, I haven't seen where you've presented the underlying mathematics or explained how you arrived at such a model.


Ad Honoris
Jan 2011
I am trying to find a mathematical model in order to pattern cycles in human history.
I know, the idea of historical cycles is controversial, but my attempt may not be worthless.

My cycles are made up of two phases, an "UP" phase (curve heading upward) and a "DOWN" phase (curve heading downward).
Here's my current hypothesis:

View attachment 20999

I am not a historian, but I am seeking someone who could give me an opinion about this hypothesis.
Are these periods somehow meaningful to you?
Do they fit the main trends in the demographic, economic, technological, political, social and cultural history of the last 5000 years?
At least for the Near Eastern, Mediterranean and European areas?


As others have pointed out it is not clear what up and down means in this "model"..... If we talk about civilizations, one might be "up" while another might be "down"... And quite frankly your graph as it is, is meaningless.

The only reason there would be "cycles" would be climate..... especially for early civilizations.... To simplify , not enough water = not enough crops (food) = decrease in population... Conversely, optimal weather for the region = bumper harvest = content and growing population.... So if you can find cycles in climate you will see a similar impact on affected regions civilization wise.... However climate does not affect everyone equally, it is location specific..... A cold spell would be bad for the north of Europe , but good for the med for example...

Conversely, innovation does not appear to be either cyclical or predictable (for example the romans could have invented the steam engine -and many other things- but did not, neither did the chinese despite their civilization being quite advanced).... and innovation plays a crucial role in the rise of some civilizations... A good recent example is air conditionning, which basically opened up the tropics to the industrial age.... and now that the existence of gravitational waves seems to have been proven, imagine the impact on our civilizations if someone invents cheap "anti gravity".... the applications in transport, construction and every day life would be a game changer..... so would teleportation... or time travel..... When are these gonna be invented ? who knows ....

And now there is the potential of global nuclear war... which has at least a small (or tiny if one is optimistic) of breaking out any day... boy would that be a down..... one that seems entirely umpredictable by any model...