Historical cycles since the Middle Ages

Jun 2019
17
italy
Which one of the two following models best fits the main historical events of the last 1300 years?
And by historical events I mean everything: demography, economy, technology, politics, disasters, ideologies, science and art, at least in the Mediterranean and European areas.

713 ce.png

748 ce.png
 

AlpinLuke

Forum Staff
Oct 2011
27,599
Italy, Lago Maggiore
When you apply math to history you have to deal with the matter of fact that, being it a scientific doctrine, you cannot reduce it to an equation, or a system of equations. This is the main difference between a proper science and a scientific doctrine: you cannot experiment to prove that a formula works for real. You can only observe [it's like with economy, psychology, sociology ... and so on].

The best rational "math approach" to history is the statistical one. With enough data you can create math models on a statistical base. But also this method crashes when the human will acts at large scale [think to the discovery and the exploitation of electricity ... it influenced the entire mankind ... was it predictable that it had to happen in that moment? Why not 50 years before or 50 years later? Today we can find it rational that electricity had discovered and exploited in that moment, but if previous history was different ...