Which historical events were there where timing made a huge difference?
So far, I can think of:
-The assassination of Charles Ferdinand, Duke of Berry in February 1820. Had this assassination occurred just a couple of months earlier, Charles Ferdinand would not have had time to impregnate his wife yet again--which would mean that he doesn't have a surviving son (Henri, Count of Chambord) and that the Orleanists are able to eventually assume the French throne in the early 19th century without a revolution (specifically the Revolution of 1830). Also, with Henri, Count of Chambord never being born, the odds of a restored French monarchy under the Orleanists in the early 1870s (if the Franco-Prussian War still occurs on schedule in this scenario, that is) would have certainly been extremely high--which would mean that either France never becomes a republic or France doesn't become a republic until much later, depending on the developments in France after that point in time in this scenario.
-The French conquest of Algeria in 1830. Had Charles X been overthrown just a couple of months earlier, this conquest might have very well never happened since Charles's successor Louis-Philippe doesn't appear to have been as eager for foreign conquest as Charles was (Charles presented Louis-Philippe with a popular fait accompli, which is why L-P never actually withdrew from Algeria). I think that we can all agree that it would have ultimately been better for both the Algerians and for the Europeans who ultimately ended up moving to Algeria had France not conquered Algeria back in 1830.
-The explosion of the USS Maine. Had it occurred a couple of weeks earlier--specifically before it was sent to Havana--there might not have been a Spanish-American War since Spain wouldn't have been blamed for the explosion which sunk the USS Maine. This would have meant that Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Guam never end up under US rule.
-Timing isn't as tight here as it is in the three cases above, but had a member of the Austro-Hungarian royal family been assassinated in Sarajevo just a couple of years (or more) after 1914, it is possible that Germany would have refrained from giving Austria-Hungary a blank check to go to war against Serbia due to the very real possibility that Germany would have felt much less confident about winning a Great War in the late 1910s and afterwards than it would have been in 1914. In turn, this would mean that such an assassination might very well have not triggered a Great War had it occurred just a couple of years later or more.
Anyway, which other cases can you think of where timing made a huge difference?
So far, I can think of:
-The assassination of Charles Ferdinand, Duke of Berry in February 1820. Had this assassination occurred just a couple of months earlier, Charles Ferdinand would not have had time to impregnate his wife yet again--which would mean that he doesn't have a surviving son (Henri, Count of Chambord) and that the Orleanists are able to eventually assume the French throne in the early 19th century without a revolution (specifically the Revolution of 1830). Also, with Henri, Count of Chambord never being born, the odds of a restored French monarchy under the Orleanists in the early 1870s (if the Franco-Prussian War still occurs on schedule in this scenario, that is) would have certainly been extremely high--which would mean that either France never becomes a republic or France doesn't become a republic until much later, depending on the developments in France after that point in time in this scenario.
-The French conquest of Algeria in 1830. Had Charles X been overthrown just a couple of months earlier, this conquest might have very well never happened since Charles's successor Louis-Philippe doesn't appear to have been as eager for foreign conquest as Charles was (Charles presented Louis-Philippe with a popular fait accompli, which is why L-P never actually withdrew from Algeria). I think that we can all agree that it would have ultimately been better for both the Algerians and for the Europeans who ultimately ended up moving to Algeria had France not conquered Algeria back in 1830.
-The explosion of the USS Maine. Had it occurred a couple of weeks earlier--specifically before it was sent to Havana--there might not have been a Spanish-American War since Spain wouldn't have been blamed for the explosion which sunk the USS Maine. This would have meant that Puerto Rico, the Philippines, and Guam never end up under US rule.
-Timing isn't as tight here as it is in the three cases above, but had a member of the Austro-Hungarian royal family been assassinated in Sarajevo just a couple of years (or more) after 1914, it is possible that Germany would have refrained from giving Austria-Hungary a blank check to go to war against Serbia due to the very real possibility that Germany would have felt much less confident about winning a Great War in the late 1910s and afterwards than it would have been in 1914. In turn, this would mean that such an assassination might very well have not triggered a Great War had it occurred just a couple of years later or more.
Anyway, which other cases can you think of where timing made a huge difference?
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