How do you get a Shia-led Iraq much earlier than in real life?

Dec 2011
4,894
Iowa USA
#11
In regards to Saudi Arabia especially, one would have thought that the Saudi government would have been delighted to see large numbers of its Shiites emigrate. Of course, the same would have also probably been true for Bahrain.
I'm not very familiar with Saudi Arabia, however, my reaction after reading the thread was that the same: the Saudi regime would not care to lose very skilled Shi'a subjects however would be fine with lesser developed subjects who are "apostate" electing to depart for Iraq.

Postscript: this topic is one I hadn't thought of really. When reading about '50s and '60s in the Middle East often Nasser is the "dramatic center" of the story, only in 1977 and later does an Islamic popular reform enter the Western discussion, of course, the reformers were present long before the late '70s.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#12
I'm not very familiar with Saudi Arabia, however, my reaction after reading the thread was that the same: the Saudi regime would not care to lose very skilled Shi'a subjects however would be fine with lesser developed subjects who are "apostate" electing to depart for Iraq.

Postscript: this topic is one I hadn't thought of really. When reading about '50s and '60s in the Middle East often Nasser is the "dramatic center" of the story, only in 1977 and later does an Islamic popular reform enter the Western discussion, of course, the reformers were present long before the late '70s.
Are Saudi Shi'ites more educated than Saudi Sunnis are?

Also, Yes, radical Islam only really took off in the Middle East over the last several decades. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 might have helped set things in motion in regards to this--as did the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan later that same year.

Nasser was certainly a critic of mandatory hijabs:

 

Tulun

Ad Honorem
Nov 2010
3,851
Western Eurasia
#13
What about Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Yemen?
@Tulun: Did you see my question here?
I saw, but I ran out of ideas, I'm not too good in speculation, limited fantasy, that is why I was reluctant to reply :))

Yemen is out of question imo (a different branch of Shia lives there, they are predominantly Zaydi, not Imami/Twelver... why would Iraqis want to attract there a new relatively "alien" and potentially rival group, and why would people in Yemen want to migrate there either), the rest I don't know.

I know among Iranian and Indian/Pakistani Shias there is a long and lively tradition to do annual pilgrimages and bring their dead to the holy ground in Iraq, having expat scholars, students etc there... But I don't know if these same deeper connections were/are that alive among the native Saudi, Bahraini Shias too (ok they are Imami Shias too, but I'm not sure if sub-sect issues play a part or not, I'm not that familiar with current Shia religious currents), or if other factors would also play a part or no.

And I think among neighboring countries it always has its risks and dilemmas to allow developing a too big expat community in the country next door (dual loyalties), and normally people only leave their homes in big numbers only under big duress a pressure. Even if lets say Saudi Shias don't like the ruling dynasty, clan and material relations can still tie them strongly to their native land.
 
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Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#14
I saw, but I ran out of ideas, I'm not too good in speculation, limited fantasy, that is why I was reluctant to reply :))
Ah; OK. Makes sense. :)

Yemen is out of question imo (a different branch of Shia lives there, they are predominantly Zaydi, not Imami/Twelver... why would Iraqis want to attract there a new relatively "alien" and potentially rival group, and why would people in Yemen want to migrate there either), the rest I don't know.
OK. Good point about the Shi'ites in Yemen being a different branch than the Shi'ites in Iraq. I could imagine Shi'ites in Yemen wanting to move to Iraq for a better quality of life, but yeah, Iraq would be unlikely to let them in.

I know among Iranian and Indian/Pakistani Shias there is a long and lively tradition to do annual pilgrimages and bring their dead to the holy ground in Iraq, having expat scholars, students etc there... But I don't know if these same deeper connections were/are that alive among the native Saudi, Bahraini Shias too (ok they are Imami Shias too, but I'm not sure if sub-sect issues play a part or not, I'm not that familiar with current Shia religious currents), or if other factors would also play a part or no.

And I think among neighboring countries it always has its risks and dilemmas to allow developing a too big expat community in the country next door (dual loyalties), and normally people only leave their homes in big numbers only under big duress a pressure. Even if lets say Saudi Shias don't like the ruling dynasty, clan and material relations can still tie them strongly to their native land.
OK; that makes sense.

Thanks for responding, BTW! :)
 
Nov 2014
1,645
Birmingham, UK
#15
Are Saudi Shi'ites more educated than Saudi Sunnis are?

Also, Yes, radical Islam only really took off in the Middle East over the last several decades. The Iranian Revolution of 1979 might have helped set things in motion in regards to this--as did the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan later that same year.

Nasser was certainly a critic of mandatory hijabs:

as a couple of pre-Iranian Revolutionary underpinnings to radical (sunni) Islam, I'd look at first the Wahhabi-Saud link which goes back IIRC to the 1930s, and also Qutb's Milestones which i think was from the 1960s, also check the background to the Muslim Brotherhood organisation (and its repression) in Egypt. it's why Nasser was shot in 1970.
 

Futurist

Ad Honoris
May 2014
21,197
SoCal
#16
as a couple of pre-Iranian Revolutionary underpinnings to radical (sunni) Islam, I'd look at first the Wahhabi-Saud link which goes back IIRC to the 1930s, and also Qutb's Milestones which i think was from the 1960s, also check the background to the Muslim Brotherhood organisation (and its repression) in Egypt. it's why Nasser was shot in 1970.
I thought that Nasser died naturally? It was Sadat who was shot, but in 1981 rather than 1970.
 
Oct 2010
5,195
DC
#17
Also, if the ICP were to ever gain power in Iraq, might it attempt to federalize Iraq along ethnic and/or religious lines like the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia did in real life?
The ICP sees ethnic and religious identities as anathema to Iraqiness and equal citizenship, they seem to think that federalization is prelude to splitting the state.

They were very powerful under Qasim and were not shy about threatening people with street dragging (an ugly Iraqi tradition of mutilation during coups) , they proclaim innocence but they had a lot of scuffles and attacks on civilians during that era that Qasim himself had to crack down on them even harder than he did on the baathists which is telling in itself since those actually were trying to kill him (and eventually did alongside Abdulsalam Arif), they still Idolize Qasim because of their early success under him not to mention he is the symbol of "diverse" Iraqi identity (Kurdish Shia mother and Sunni Arab Father).
 
Oct 2010
5,195
DC
#18
as a couple of pre-Iranian Revolutionary underpinnings to radical (sunni) Islam, I'd look at first the Wahhabi-Saud link which goes back IIRC to the 1930s, and also Qutb's Milestones which i think was from the 1960s, also check the background to the Muslim Brotherhood organisation (and its repression) in Egypt. it's why Nasser was shot in 1970.
Which Assassination attempt, the only one I know of is the early one in 1954 in Alexandria as he was giving a speech.

Also it is complicated in Egypt, the Free officers knew of the brotherhood faction within the Egyptian Army before toppling king Farooq, they were in contact mainly through Anwar Al-Sadat.
 
Nov 2014
1,645
Birmingham, UK
#19
Which Assassination attempt, the only one I know of is the early one in 1954 in Alexandria as he was giving a speech.

Also it is complicated in Egypt, the Free officers knew of the brotherhood faction within the Egyptian Army before toppling king Farooq, they were in contact mainly through Anwar Al-Sadat.
I thought that Nasser died naturally? It was Sadat who was shot, but in 1981 rather than 1970.
Apologies i misremembered that

My basic point though was the roots of Sunni jihadism/ radical Islam are deeper and older than the Iranian revolution
 

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