How has military expenditure skyrocketed?

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Naomasa298

Forum Staff
Apr 2010
35,491
T'Republic of Yorkshire
Perhaps you should close the thread because what can I say in this thread that can not be interpreted as a violation of your warning?

Then say nothing. Other people are participating in this thread, and the warning applies equally to everyone.

And you should be aware that this is a privately owned forum, and "freedom of speech" does not apply.
 

athena

Ad Honorem
Jan 2010
5,032
Eugene, Oregon
1.7 million jobs??? Wow that is a a lot...in a nation of 300 million? Manufacturing jobs? The ones being automated? This is ridiculous. We don't fight wars to support towns and jobs. We don't kill people for that. You are talking about low percentages of GDP.

The US support of Saudi Arabia has little to do with supporting communities. It has to do with oil, strategic balance in the Middle East, and the leverage weaponry gives. First lets start off with oil. The United States by the time of the Cold War was not able to match the Soviet Union in oil production. The Middle East had the largest oil reserves in the world and the US needed that oil to fuel their economy and weapons. The US worried that in a war, their tanks and planes would not work, so they would fight over the Middle East in case of Soviet attack there(ie. the Carter doctrine). The US formed an alliance with the democratic Israel and the monarchy Saudi Arabia. Why Saudi Arabia? Because it was a rather weak, unstable, non-nationalist state that had no means of creating a Middle East hegemony like Nasser could. The US supported Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War because they didn't want Iran to become a Middle East hegemon and threaten Saudi Arabia, and they fought Gulf War so Saddam won't annex Saudi Arabia after he annexed Kuwait. The Iraq War and the Afghan War was fought to stop a Terrorist Caliphate from spreading armed with WMDs.

The need from oil from the Middle East stopped around 2014 where the US started making most of its own oil. US production beat Saudi production due to shale. The US no longer needed the Middle East for resource reasons.

So what do the weapons do? Well the provide leverage for the US could lets say stop two nations that use US weapons from fighting effectively or a nation using its weapons that attacked another US ally. Backing Saudi Arabia counters Iran, a nationalist state tied with Russia and China.
I did not say we go to war to support towns. I said the economic impact of closing bases or shutting down an industry, has a serious ecomonic impact and political this can be a serious concern, especially for the states that depend on the bases and industries. It is so important our president is marketing weapons for us.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RS22147.pdf

This link talks about oil independence. United States energy independence - Wikipedia This looks great if a person does not know there was a time when oil was our greatest export and made our economy very healthy. The world traded oil in dollars and this is very important to the value of the dollar. It is so important we attacked Iraq when Sadam began trading oil in Euro's. We must keep control of oil around the world because our banking system depends on it.

Our banking system was hit very hard when oil-rich nations became independent of our banks and stopped putting their money in our banks and stopped buying USA Treasury bonds. Now, this is really getting off topic but it is important to understand. At least one geologist who worked for the oil companies wrote a book about this. I am sure there is plenty of available.

I fell into this information because I microfilmed old newspapers for a college and happened to see the article in a 1920's newspaper warning, "Given our known oil supply and rate of consumption, we are headed for economic disaster and possibly war." A newspaper published something I wrote about this and a geologist contacted me and gave me his books. What if I am right and saying things that do need to be known?
 

aggienation

Ad Honorem
Jul 2016
9,813
USA
I fell into this information because I microfilmed old newspapers for a college and happened to see the article in a 1920's newspaper warning, "Given our known oil supply and rate of consumption, we are headed for economic disaster and possibly war." A newspaper published something I wrote about this and a geologist contacted me and gave me his books. What if I am right and saying things that do need to be known?
Wait. You think you're right because a poorly thought 1920 opinion piece in a newspaper told you so? Or that someone published your opinion piece? At the end of the day, you're still the one who took a zaney comedic piece of mostly fiction (War Dogs) and said how it had enlightened you, which is like saying watching John Wick enlightened me about the inner workings of criminal culture.
 

Isoroku295

Ad Honorem
Jan 2009
8,500
In the Past
That is true if your time line begins after the second world war. Historically the US has not been a strong military power. We ranked 17th, below small countries just before the second world war. And our defense spending since the war is curious considering we have been in peace and our recent wars are with countries that are a threat to us.

Military budget of the United States - Wikipedia
The US is not the world's demographic. I am talking about the entire world. And the US budget is, relative, not that extreme compared to most historical budgets (unless you only include the US). Bare in mind that the US-only historical budgets are very low compared to almost any other power in history. It isn't a great comparison to stay only in the US to identify the planet's overall development.
 

Mrbsct

Ad Honorem
Jul 2013
2,646
USA
This link talks about oil independence. United States energy independence - Wikipedia This looks great if a person does not know there was a time when oil was our greatest export and made our economy very healthy. The world traded oil in dollars and this is very important to the value of the dollar. It is so important we attacked Iraq when Sadam began trading oil in Euro's. We must keep control of oil around the world because our banking system depends on it.

Our banking system was hit very hard when oil-rich nations became independent of our banks and stopped putting their money in our banks and stopped buying USA Treasury bonds. Now, this is really getting off topic but it is important to understand. At least one geologist who worked for the oil companies wrote a book about this. I am sure there is plenty of available.

I fell into this information because I microfilmed old newspapers for a college and happened to see the article in a 1920's newspaper warning, "Given our known oil supply and rate of consumption, we are headed for economic disaster and possibly war." A newspaper published something I wrote about this and a geologist contacted me and gave me his books. What if I am right and saying things that do need to be known?
No. The Petrodollar conspiracy is a debunked one.

First off, oil is only a small portion of the US economy and the world's one. Nations switching from USD has little effect on the US economy. Why do nations trade in USD? One it is stable, two the US has a very large economy. Nations hostile to the US switch to another currency because they don't want US controlling money supply, the US doesn't attack them because they are switching currency, that is a ridiculous reason.

The stability of the US has nothing to do with oil. The debt problem isn't that bad(not at crisis levels) because it is mostly internal, interest rates are low, and the US is a valuable investment, the puny amount buy in dollars to buy and sell oil not a reason for stability.
 

athena

Ad Honorem
Jan 2010
5,032
Eugene, Oregon
No. The Petrodollar conspiracy is a debunked one.

First off, oil is only a small portion of the US economy and the world's one. Nations switching from USD has little effect on the US economy. Why do nations trade in USD? One it is stable, two the US has a very large economy. Nations hostile to the US switch to another currency because they don't want US controlling money supply, the US doesn't attack them because they are switching currency, that is a ridiculous reason.

The stability of the US has nothing to do with oil. The debt problem isn't that bad(not at crisis levels) because it is mostly internal, interest rates are low, and the US is a valuable investment, the puny amount buy in dollars to buy and sell oil not a reason for stability.
Mrbsct I am really curious why you used the word "conspiracy"? I know professor Youngquist who wrote the books, "Mineral Resources and the Distiny of Nations" and "GeoDistinies" was a man of science, not a political conspirator.


The US is not the world's demographic. I am talking about the entire world. And the US budget is, relative, not that extreme compared to most historical budgets (unless you only include the US). Bare in mind that the US-only historical budgets are very low compared to almost any other power in history. It isn't a great comparison to stay only in the US to identify the planet's overall development.
Our economy would have been screwed if it were not for the petrodollar and all of this is tied to our military spending and activity. The recession caused by the OPEC embargoing oil to the US showed the flaw in our dependency on imported oil.

History of the Petrodollar
Faced with mounting inflation, debt from the Vietnam War, extravagant domestic spending habits and a persistent balance of payments deficit, the Nixon administration decided to suddenly (and shockingly) end the convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold. In the wake of this “Nixon Shock,” the world saw the end of the gold era and a free fall of the U.S. dollar amidst soaring inflation. According to, Dr. Bessma Moomani in the article, " GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar," through a series of carefully crafted bilateral agreements with Saudi Arabia beginning in 1974, the U.S. was able to promote bilateral political and commercial relations, market imported U.S. goods and services, and help recycle Saudi petrodollars (more on this later).

Through this framework of economic cooperation and, more importantly, petrodollar recycling, the U.S. managed to influence Saudi Arabia to persuade the other members of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to standardize the sale of oil in dollars. In return for invoicing oil in dollar denominations, Saudi Arabia and other Arab states secured U.S. influence in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict along with U.S. military assistance during an increasingly worrisome political climate that saw the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the fall of the Iranian Shah and the Iran-Iraq War. Out of this mutually beneficial agreement, the petrodollar system was born.

[How Petrodollars Affect The U.S. Dollar
Looking for easy to use links makes me wonder if any of your information is more then 20 years old? You remind me of the history of Easter Island. As these people deforested their island, from generation to generation they did not see their situation getting more serious until the environmental damage was so severe they were reduced to cannibalism. Oil was not always a small portion of our economy but the number 1 export. We went from being the world's supply of oil to dependent on importing it.

This chart is pathetic because it begins in 1972 long after international oil suppliers were developed, but at least it is pretty clear the rise and fall of our economy follows the rise and fall of our supply of oil. 1562025514210.png

The same is true for the US economy as is true of all economies dependent on exporting oil. Fracking technology has saved our asses for a while, but when the oil is gone it is gone. And all industrial economies are dependent on oil. This is more than getting rich by exporting oil as oil-rich countries today have had. It is disastrous to any industrial economy when it loses its supply of oil of the cost increases too much. When Saudi Arabis runs out of oil, it will not sink back into poverty without a fight, and it is a well-armed country. What do you think will prevent that future war?

Finally, after reading this please explain in a little more detail why the relationship between oil, the economy, and war is not something we should understand a little better.

It was July 1974. A steady predawn drizzle had given way to overcast skies when William Simon, newly appointed U.S. Treasury secretary, and his deputy, Gerry Parsky, stepped onto an 8 a.m. flight from Andrews Air Force Base. On board, the mood was tense. That year, the oil crisis had hit home. An embargo by OPEC's Arab nations-payback for U.S. military aid to the Israelis during the Yom Kippur War-quadrupled oil prices. Inflation soared, the stock market crashed, and the U.S. economy was in a tailspin.
The untold story behind Saudi Arabia's 41-year U.S. debt secret
 
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aggienation

Ad Honorem
Jul 2016
9,813
USA
No. The Petrodollar conspiracy is a debunked one.

First off, oil is only a small portion of the US economy and the world's one. Nations switching from USD has little effect on the US economy. Why do nations trade in USD? One it is stable, two the US has a very large economy. Nations hostile to the US switch to another currency because they don't want US controlling money supply, the US doesn't attack them because they are switching currency, that is a ridiculous reason.

The stability of the US has nothing to do with oil. The debt problem isn't that bad(not at crisis levels) because it is mostly internal, interest rates are low, and the US is a valuable investment, the puny amount buy in dollars to buy and sell oil not a reason for stability.
The petrodollar system has nothing to do with US domestic oil production or exports, it has to do with a plan instituted in the early 70s.

Broken down to very generalized and simplified way, the US was to far in debt to have the Dollar backed by gold, so it turned the Dollar into a total fiat currency. But those are monopoly money, there is no reason to trust that currency, especially what that means in terms of the Bretton Woods Agreement, which made all other currencies value compared to the Dollar.

So the US went to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, flush with cash as a chief OPEC exporter, and made a deal with them. They sell their oil in Dollars, which forces buyers to first need their own dollars, and then use those dollars earned from sales to buy US Treasury Bonds as an investment.

Boom. Suddenly the US Dollar is a legit reserve currency. Even though its paper, or now just a symbol in a computer, it has legit power.

In exchange the US sells the KSA the good stuff, in terms of some of our best military technology, and we guarantee their safety from outside aggression.

A deal so sweet, most of the Gulf States got involved too and are part of the deal.

That reason, besides Israel and global threat of Jihadist terrorism, is pretty much the only reason the US is involved with the Middle East. Keep Gulf State (not Iran!) oil flowing, keep that money flowing, keep the Dollar valuable. If we screw around and fail, the house of cards collapses and say hello to the Great Depression 2.0, new, improved, and so much worse. Immediately followed by WW3.
 
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athena

Ad Honorem
Jan 2010
5,032
Eugene, Oregon
aggienation, thank you so much for that explanation and warning!

I like Youngist's first book best, "Mineral Resources and the Destiny of Nations". There is more history in his first book. We have much to learn from Rome which also was taken over by military people. Roman history through a geologist's point of view is a desperate quest for gold. As our economy goes up and down with the oil supply, Rome's economy went up and down with the gold supply. The power of Rome shifted to the east when the supply of gold in the west was exhausted and a fabulous supply of gold in the east was discovered. The church in old Rome gained so much power because it wasn't the government holding the gold and power in old Rome but the Church.

Recently people have started writing about what geography has to do with world history. I think this is a much more sane way to understand history than explaining it as though history is all about who is the seat of power. The guy at the top may steer the boat but he is not the power of the boat and when the source of power is weak so is the leader.
 

Isoroku295

Ad Honorem
Jan 2009
8,500
In the Past
Our economy would have been screwed if it were not for the petrodollar and all of this is tied to our military spending and activity. The recession caused by the OPEC embargoing oil to the US showed the flaw in our dependency on imported oil.
This addresses what I said in what way? I'll restate m points

1: The US is not the only country on Earth
2: While large compared to past US budgets, it is fairly typical of historical budgets globally.
3: World military spending is at it's lowest point in history compared to economy and government expenditure.

A rant about the petrodollar addressed none of that. Please either address my points or move on.
 
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