How many more Israelis would have lived in the West Bank right now had Israel conquered it in 1949?

pugsville

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Oct 2010
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BTW, Jerusalem and Hebron aren't the only large cities in the West Bank. There are also Bethlehem, Jericho, Ramallah, Nablus, Qalqilya, Tulkarm, and Jenin. Even if these cities will keep a part of their Arab population in this scenario, Jews could either move directly into these cities or build cities directly adjacent to these cities and move there.
Paletsinain settlement patterns are heavily distorted by the 1948 war and 1967. Refugees camps/entitlements evolved for political reasons. Jericho, was the focus of self rule so again artiofical political factors at work. Paletsinian cities would all have much less population without the political factorsof Israeli conquest and expulsion. If those expulled to teh wets bank are expelled furtehr to Jordan the population of much of the west bank cities are going to much lower.

Nebron (200,000)
Nabulus (200,000 in 2007) population doubled in 1948 due to refugess
Bethlehem (25,000 in 2007) ,
Jericho (20,000 in 2007)
( Jenin 40,000 , 10,000 in camp)
Ramallah (27,000 in 2007)
 
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pugsville

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Oct 2010
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What are the reasons not to integrate them?
Lebannon, is is a fundamental challange to the ethnic based constitutional settlement.
Jordan, a challenge to royal rule,
Syria, Dictatorship

In All three states intergration challenges the idea of citizen ship and identity. Hostililty with Israel is going to remain, use of teh Paletsinains as pawms in geopolitics remains as a reason.
 
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Futurist

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Lebannon, is is a fundamental challange to the ethnic based constitutional settlement.
Jordan, a challenge to royal rule,
Syria, Dictatorship

In All three states intergration challenges the idea of citizen ship and identity. Hostililty with Israel is going to remain, use of teh Paletsinains as pawms in geopolitics remains as a reason.
What about Egypt?
 

pugsville

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Oct 2010
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What about Egypt?
Again who pressuring Egypt to intergerate them? They remain a useful pawn against Israel., Which Egypt is not going to have warm feelings about.


As side note Israeli COnquest of teh west bank in 1949 could see the collaspe of the Jordanian state. It woudl be a large blow to a pretty fragile state. Any new regime more populalry based or dictorial based, (eitehr case is unlikely to have the hashimite British connection) could well be more hardline anti Israel,
 
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Futurist

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Again who pressuring Egypt to intergerate them? They remain a useful pawn against Israel., Which Egypt is not going to have warm feelings about.
What about if/after Egypt makes peace with Israel?

As side note Israeli COnquest of teh west bank in 1949 could see the collaspe of the Jordanian state. It woudl be a large blow to a pretty fragile state. Any new regime more populalry based or dictorial based, (eitehr case is unlikely to have the hashimite British connection) could well be more hardline anti Israel,
Good point. Of course, this does raise the question of whether the new Jordanian regime would want to attack Israel first or focus on other things first--such as conquering Syria and perhaps some or all of Iraq as well.
 

pugsville

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Oct 2010
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Good point. Of course, this does raise the question of whether the new Jordanian regime would want to attack Israel first or focus on other things first--such as conquering Syria and perhaps some or all of Iraq as well.
Nether of those are remotely possible. Jordan is much smaller with almost no resources, in 1948/49 the preexisting Arab Legion as the real military unit in the region was important. it would repaidly become less so as new states developed their miliatry. The Arab Legion and the british support therein (it was commanded by British Officers and had been a British unit) would not survive the fall of the hashimite regime which it was closely aligned with. Jordanian concerns with Iraq/Syria are historical Hashimite links (as shallow as they were) there no real reason for a new regime to share any of this.

Without the Arab Legiuon and the British support the absorption of Jordan by Syria or Saudis becomes a possibility. The exististance of Jordan as a state is solely due to British attempts at influence and their propping up of the Hashimites as their clients in the region. In 1948 the British boith okayed /encouraged the Jordanain annexation of the west bank, and dictated Jordanian miliary opertaions woul dbe restricted to outside the Jewish state (and they ran down ammonition supplies to the Arab Legion to make sure of it)
 
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Futurist

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Nether of those are remotely possible. Jordan is much smaller with almost no resources, in 1948/49 the preexisting Arab Legion as the real military unit in the region was important. it would repaidly become less so as new states developed their miliatry. The Arab Legion and the british support therein (it was commanded by British Officers and had been a British unit) would not survive the fall of the hashimite regime which it was closely aligned with. Jordansin concerns with Iraq/Syria are historial Hashimite links (as shallow as they were) there no real reason for a new regime to share any of this.
So, the new Jordanian regime would attack Israel at the earliest possible opportunity--and presumably get its butt kicked, correct?
 

pugsville

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Oct 2010
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So, the new Jordanian regime would attack Israel at the earliest possible opportunity--and presumably get its butt kicked, correct?
Ah No. It would be hostile to Israel almost certainly, but it's miliatry power would be next to nothing, it would have lost the core of it's army and only real regular army units, it's only foreign backer and supplier of military equipment. and it would be broke, incredibly poor state that had lost it make source of foreign aid.

It's fuutre existence would be questionable without such an insanely mad step as to attack Israel,
 
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Futurist

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Ah No. It would be hostile to Israel almost certainly, but it's miliatry power would be next to nothing, it would have lost the core of it's army and only real regular army units, it's only foreign backer and supplier of military equipment. and it would be broke, incredibly poor state that had lost it make source of foreign aid.

It's fuutre existence would be questionable without such an insanely mad step as to attack Israel,
So, what happens to Jordan if it experiences a collapse and breakdown in this scenario? Does Jordan get partitioned between Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq?